A long-time reader, D.M., emailed me yesterday with an interesting document. It was a .pdf of a report written by retired Army Gen. [tag]Barry McCaffrey[/tag], addressed to two West Point professors, on his observations stemming from a week-long trip through Iraq. It included plenty of optimistic assessments, but a few discouraging facts, including lengthy delays in prepare and [tag]Iraq[/tag]i military and training an Iraqi police force — which McCaffrey suggested might take a [tag]decade[/tag], minimum.
Was the memo legit? Yes. In fact, Slate’s [tag]Fred Kaplan[/tag] wrote an analysis of McCaffrey’s report yesterday.
The significance of this memo is that it reveals — from an optimistic but realistic insider’s perspective — the magnitude of the price, and it’s probably way higher than what the vast majority of Americans are willing to pay. […]
The Iraqi army battalions, he writes, “are very badly equipped with only a few light vehicles [and] small arms. … They have almost no mortars, heavy machine guns, decent communications equipment, artillery, armor, or … air transport, helicopter, and strike support.”
The bottom line: “We need at least two-to-five more years of U.S. partnership and combat backup to get the Iraqi Army ready to stand on its own.” (Emphasis added.)
The political-administrative apparatus is in worse shape still: The “corruption and lack of capability of the ministries [of defense and interior] will require several years of patient coaching and officer education in values as well as the required competence.” (Emphasis added.)
But the real problem is Iraqi security forces. McCaffrey saw a police force ill equipped to deal with an insurgency, infiltrated by jihadists and militias, and incapable of facing armed gangs. How long will it take for them to stand up (so we can stand down)? McCaffrey argues that it “will be a 10-year project.”
Here’s the memo itself. It’s not all bad — McCaffrey noted, “The morale, fighting effectiveness, and confidence of U.S. combat forces continue to be simply awe-inspiring” — but overall, he paints a discouraging picture, which suggests, without a change in direction from Bush, U.S. troops aren’t going anywhere for a very long time.