‘This administration may be over’

May 8, 2006

I mentioned earlier that the latest USA Today/Gallup [tag]poll[/tag] shows [tag]Bush[/tag]’s support slipping further, with his [tag]approval rating[/tag] down to just 31%. Not only is that a record low, but his 65% disapproval is a record high. USAT noted that over the last 60 years, only four presidents (Truman, Nixon, Carter, and Bush 41) scored lower approval ratings in a [tag]Gallup[/tag] poll, and Nixon, Carter and the elder Bush never again registered above 40%.

As Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin who studies presidential approval ratings, noted, “Historically it’s been pretty devastating to presidents at this level.”

Which leads to the question, is Bush capable of recovering? Forget whether the White House has a “comeback” plan or not; it’s worth considering whether it’s even possible for the president to regain a respectable level of support. One prominent Republican pollster recently said it’s likely Bush has fallen to an unrecoverable level.

“This administration may be over,” [tag]Lance Tarrance[/tag], a chief architect of the Republicans’ 1960s and ’70s Southern strategy, told a gathering of journalists and political wonks last week. “By and large, if you want to be tough about it, the relevancy of this administration on policy may be over.” […]

Tarrance said it would be extremely difficult for any president to bounce back this late in his administration and reassert influence on Capitol Hill when his approval rating barely exceeds his party’s base support and half of all adults surveyed said they “strongly disapprove” of his performance. An overwhelming 73 percent of independents disapprove of Bush’s performance, and two-thirds of those “strongly disapprove.”

In this context, any talk about a political recovery looks rather silly. Fred Barnes offered his four-part “keys to a successful comeback” in early April. Then National Review’s Rich Lowry unveiled a seven-point plan of his own shortly thereafter. New White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten leaked word to Time about his own five-point strategy.

I suspect most of the president’s most ardent supporters want to deny it, but it’s likely we’re dealing with a president with minimal political support who will leave office in 987 days widely disliked by the American people. Bush supporters can argue about whether this matters, but the reality is the president will probably never get close to a 50% approval rating again.

But will Congress actually do anything against Bush beyond the budget bills? I doubt it. I still don’t believe the umbilical cord that connects the two is that severed. If so Hastert and Frist as well as a few otehrs don’t seem to have gotten the message.

  • We all remember what Bush’s base looks like at that fundraiser (all dressed in formal wear); you know–“the haves and the have-mores.” With Bush’s dying breath–perhaps literally–he will push to make the tax cuts permanent–including the elimination of the estate tax. The greatest act of debauchery that Bush and his administration could accomplish would be the impoverishment of our children.

  • The Bush administration is undergoing an extreme case of political gangrene, and is frantically shedding some of its diseased body parts (Mclellan, Goss, et. al.) in an effort to stanch the rot.

    Not a pretty sight (or smell, for that matter.)

    I agree with your assessment that Bush will probably not recover in the time he has left. His biggest problem now is that it is now officially O.K. for people to believe he is just an overgrown adolescent in the oval office. It will no longer be possible to counter that assessment, once it has made its way into a broad cross-section of the public.

  • One of the biggest impediments to recovery (and what may sever that “umbilical cord” along Penn Ave) is that the numerous Congressional aspirants for President will have to start asserting themselves and to start finding their own positions.

  • Of course, he might yet slip below 25%. That would be a real novelty: a President sustaining an approval rating so low, as to constitute an open invitation to leave office, immediately.

    You will know that the Republican powers-that-be are serious about staging a comeback, when Cheney either has a fatal heart attack or resigns. Then, the heir presumptive can take office, and it will be safe to get rid of Bush, himself, should the need arise.

  • I think America has made up it’s mind about Bush. It’s tough to get people back on your side, once they’re convinced they’ve been sold a bill of goods. That’s where Bush is, and that’s what his strongly disapprove numbers seem to point toward.

    It’s so bad that even conservatives, such as Jonah Goldberg, are disavowing Bush’s conservative credentials. Goldberg went so far as to suggest Bush is a liberal – talk about panic in Wingnutville!

    At barstool level, the mere mention of Bush is likely to be met with a string of expletives.
    The genie isn’t going back into the bottle. In short, I think he’s toast

  • I live in Dallas, Texas, zip 75205, the reddest of red states, ground zero for Bush cult loyalty, where he is likely to live at least part-time when he leaves office and where his presidential library is likely to be built. I saw a guy in my neighborhood grocery store today wearing a t-shirt that said, ” F*** Bush.” Yep. He’s done.

  • Does this sound like a guy who’s going to turn anything around?

    “The interesting thing about Washington is that they want me to change — they being the — and I’m not changing, you know. You can’t make decisions if you don’t know who you are, and you flip around with the politics. You’ve got to stay strong in what you believe and optimistic about that you’ll get good results.

    “And so –the other thing I want you to know about me is that no matter how pressurized it may seem, I’m not changing what I believe. . . . I’m not changing. I don’t care whether they like me at the cocktail parties, or not. I want to be able to leave this office with my integrity intact.”

    — GWB, from the Bild Interview

  • but why should bush care about approval ratings? he’s never ruled like he gave two thoughts to what the american people actually wanted. he does what either (1) his corporate cronies or (2) god tells him too. even the religious right will find themselves out in the cold. he doesn’t need their votes so now they are also irrelevant. he will need corporate money in the future, so they will still have a save. and he’ll need god to convince him he’s not going to hell.

    my prediction: he just starts ramming through executive orders because that’s what leaders do, dammit, when people, especially legislators, don’t have the vision to support them. it’ll be for our own good, and follow nicely from his stated designs to ignore or implement laws as he pleases. just as his administration has dared democrats to do unpalatable stuff in opposition, now he’ll dare the congress of his own party to oppose him. and like the democrats they won’t because they’ve already show themselves to be cowards.

    this is why he’ll bomb iran. because he can. because it’s there. because there’s no reason not to.

  • Sub 25% would be apt.

    He deserves the lowest rating ever.
    That’d be a nice legacy.

    It would be the first thing he finally and fairly earned on his own.

    But can he go that low?

    The clinging 31% are the super-duper, carpet-red, koolaid drinkers.

    I think once you get down to the 30% level you are up against something we might call:

    The law of diminishing discriminating intelligence.

    In other words, it is going to be tough to break through the 30% barrier.

    On the other hand, Cheney hit 22% remember?

    Of course he had to shoot someone in the face and not tell anyone for a day….

    That’s a rather daunting precedent,
    Even for this ridiculous president.

  • Too bad people took this long to figure these losers out. The next president will have a real social, economic and political, mess to start cleaning up. Unfortunately, it will take years to recover from the Bush Adm.

    Thank goodness for the Internet and blogs like Carpetbagger. Otherwise people would be totally in the dark.Network news (except for Lou Dobbs)is bought and paid for by the corporate interests that control the US these days. If Lou Dobbs were not one of the founders of CNN, they would have shut him up, too.

  • “Ah, never underestimate the power of going to war with Iran…” – C. Troy

    You think anyone is going to believe him? He might bomb Iran, but we aren’t going in for an occupation/liberation.

    Which is sad, really, as the Arabs, Baluchi, Kurds and Azeri probably wouldn’t mind not being minorities to the Persians.

  • Marilyn G raised an issue that often gives me real heartburn:

    “Too bad people took this long to figure these losers out. The next president will have a real social, economic and political, mess to start cleaning up. Unfortunately, it will take years to recover from the Bush Adm.”

    It would have been nice had people wised up enough to not give this sorry excuse for a human being 4 more years. But to the country’s shame, they didn’t.

    Now we will likely elect a Dem who will be faced with a horrible disadvantage, and no money available to work with. He or she will face endless Hobson’s choices and Catch-22 situations — and will either look incapable because the mess can’t be cleaned up in 4 years, or the costs to various groups in doing so will add up to massive unpopularity. The result very well may be a one-term presidency and a strong Rethug bias going forward from that “failure” to clean up Dumbya’s mess.

  • Yup. I think he’s toast out here. But back in there, under that dome, he’s still got some pull. I agree with ET.

    Next task: watch the Hayden hearings very closely. They should tell us a lot. And Hayden’s position as the next step in Pentagonizing our former democracy is really important.

    And yes, it’s virtual curtains for anyone who follows Bush in office. Back when we thought Kerry had a chance, I felt the heartburn that Zeitgeist talks about, and believed then as I do now that any Democratic revival will be short, at best. I’m increasingly persuaded that we should handle the impeachment issue extremely carefully. It’s going to be very hard to be “uniters” after all that’s happened, but the job is ours to do if we want more than a couple of years in the catbird seat.

  • The trouble is considering his willingness to push the limits of executive power, he can still do immense damage in his remaining term of office, regardless of his popularity. I doubt he’ll feel compelled to consult congress if he decides to bomb Iran, for example.

    –Rick Taylor

  • 75% of us might hate what he’s doing, but I don’t think that’s going to stop him from continuing to wreak havoc on the country.

    Unfortunately, the 25% who still support him includes all of the Congress (with the exception of Feingold, Conyers and maybe a handful of others) the Supreme Court and what’s left of the military brass. We’re screwed.

    And as noted by others above, the road back, assuming we can even find it, is going to be long, difficult and politcally unpopular.

  • 30 will be Kid George’s “magic number;” the final plateau to precede the endgame of his contemptuously-lackluster administration. I’m thinking that he’ll break that 30-mark on or about Memorial Day—and then it’s freefall for Georgie. Once his ultra-core base begins to abandon ship, I think they’ll all go—simply because it will become not just ideologically unpopular to support this has-been of a President, but because it will become both politically, socially, and fiscally dangerous to support him. Faith-based groups that continue their undying dedication to this man will see their programs eclipsed by both secular and non-sectarian organizations who will step up to the plate, and do a better job for less money. The general cadre of the Religious Reich will suddenly shift directions, and renounce this man. The uber-conservatives—both within the Beltway and without—will have a choice between getting the shredded remnants of their merits into a lifeboat, or going down with the ship.

    This may be that “moment within the moment” in which we witness, first hand and right in the front row—the implosion of an American Presidency. Nixon’s Watergate debacle may well be small potatoes to what this is going to be. At least Nixon had China. Kid George won’t even have a pot to piss in.

    And, that’s the dangerous thing here. If he’s absolutely nothing to lose, then he’s quite likely, as any animal when it’s cornered and threatened, to commit a final, ultimate act of stupidity….

  • The only thing I can say is be prepared for the worst. That way, whenever this administration makes its final move, you won’t be stuck in a dumbfounded stupor. Bush has told us repeatedly that he doesn’t care what “they” think, and he believes it is his destiny to save the world/spread democracy(though I doubt he actually believes the second part…I believe that his goal is to make as much money for him and his cronies and to push this country so far in the hole that class stratification can’t be stopped without drastic measures…but he might actually believe he is saving the world). Bush has shown that he doesn’t care what anyone thinks, let’s hope we don’t find out whether he really means the second part.

  • Americans are uniting against the Bush presidency finally. But for different, and opposite reasons, and that does not bode well for our country. Conservatives want him to dry up social spending altogether. The rest of the Republicans are incensed for a number of reasons, but none that help our cause. For example, they feel betrayed that such issues as a gay marriage amendment, anti-abortion legislation, the Constitution Restoration Act and the flag burning amendment have been ignored by Bush.

    Then there are the fanatical hawks, who want us to go to war
    with Iran. Bush isn’t going to do this.

    So what kind of candidate are the Republicans going to
    throw at us in 2008? By the tones of their fury, I’d guess an
    evangelical combination of Grover Norquist and a nuke ’em imperialist war monger. With some more tax cuts for the
    rich thrown in on the deal.

    And if they win?

    Sometimes I wonder if Bush, the great divider, hasn’t done America a great favor. We are so polarized, so diametrically opposed in our ideals and goals for this nation, that maybe it would be best if we were split asunder into two nations.

  • My question is, what will happen if they pull off, again, a rigged election, so out of whack with the exit polls to make the 2004 Kerry Ohio situation look like kindergartn. Remember, Rove is telling people re dems taking power, “it ain’t gonna happen,” just like before. Will the people actually start to acknowledge the elections have been rigged, or will the media and that 25% that still support them, and those pesky Republican congressmen, breath a sigh of relief and just move forward, calling everyone “conspiracy theorists?”

    The feeling that the dems can gain considerable ground in November is tempered by the realization that we’ve been through this before, circa the euphoria generated by the exit polls in 2004, Ohio and Kerry.

    What if the dems win on paper, but on the computer, they lose, and the paper is lost or unavailable?

  • Mr. Bush long ago lost everyone to his left. The people he is losing now are to his right. To within statistical noise, everyone who voted Republican in 2004 will vote Republican in 2006. They have no alternative.

  • On the other hand, Cheney hit 22% remember?-koreyel

    I was wondering if Cheney’s approval rating is a leading indicator of Bush’s approval rating. I would love to see a graph of both rating against time. Does anyone know if such a graph has ever been constructed or where one might find the data to construct such a graph?

  • Although I feel some validation of my own views in Bush’s poll numbers, nothing will matter if Ken Mehlman’s November Nightmare does not come true. If the both houses of Congress remain under Republican control after the mid-terms, W will declare a mandate and revel – as he has in the past – in taking sharp sticks to the eyes of his opponents. My November Nightmare is the possibilty that a weakened, unpopular Bush will prove to be more rash and every bit as dangerous than his more popular and politically strong first-term counterpart. I believe him capable of driving the bus straight over the cliff (again) while proudly and stubbornly declaring he doesn’t care what the GPS system says, his heart / gut / God tells him not to change course.

    Finally, a politically wounded and widely reviled President is so damaging to our country. I am hard-pressed to name true statesmen/women in our current national leadership who seem inclined to put the national interests above their own. Everything seems a calculation, and equivocation, or a retreat. I would love to see some of them summon the courage to speak the truth and invite us bumpkins to help right the ship (by making sacrifices, if necessary). I do not see that happening, though. We do not seem to have leaders who have both the standing AND the principles to both call bullsh*t and point the way out of this mess.

  • Bush’s abyss should be a lesson to all politicians and in particular to Congress: dance with the ones who brought you. This conservative has wiped his hands of Bush and those in Congress who refused to carry out their constitutional duties. But then again, the only reason I voted for Bush was because he was dogged enough to take people who declared they want to kill us at their word, and fight ’em. Other than that, I knew he was just a big government Republican- that ilk of politician who just diverts the treasury largess to those departments he favors and cuts others. If the whole Iraq thing never happen (and I realize that is a monsterously huge if), then dems should actually like the guy, as republicans go- he created the largest addition to the socialist wellfare state since lyndon johnson. Bushes are not real conservatives- never have been, never will. They just act like it to wrangle the tent to their side.
    I’m really considering sitting out the next election to teach my party a lesson, and let the dems take the reigns in the House. I’ll take a knife in the chest from my foe far better than one in the back from a supposed “ally.”
    Castor- If Bush attacks Iran with nothing less than an actual hostile act of war (in the classic historical sense), then he should be impeached, imprisoned, and hanged (but y’all are against the penalty, so I guess we’ll just have to give him air conditioned quarters with cable, three healthy meals a day with free health care, magazine subscriptions, clean sheets, and a gym membership for life instead).

  • 987 days! He’s gonna freak out trying to sqeeze in a couple months of “hard work” in that short a time!

    Here’s my two point “strategery” plan for a comeback:

    1) Quit now while you’re ahead.

    2) Go fishin.

  • Well I guess the press have figured out that he’s not a “popular” president.

    I mean, Colbert went and said all that shit to his face. Bush has to live with that for the rest of his life.

    Colbert put it right out there in front of the press- in front of all of them together. They can’t ignore it.

    This president is officially a joke.

  • Like a black hole, W’s circle is collapsing in on itself. His new appointees are inner-circle retreads and if Rove is finally indicted, the rudder will have fallen off of his ship.

    There are still so many shoes left to drop that W’s ratings will have to swim like crazy to stay floating where they are. While the litany of bad news for W is good news for those that oppose him (now two out of every three Americans,) that bad news is still due to how badly he’s damaged this nation and screwed our colllective future.

  • “USAT noted that over the last 60 years, only four presidents (Truman, Nixon, Carter, and Bush 41) scored lower approval ratings in a Gallup poll, and Nixon, Carter and the elder Bush never again registered above 40%.”

    The problem with this statement is that those 3 presidents hit that low mark right before they left office. There was no time for them to bounce back. Truman was the only one who had time and he managed to hit 60% before dropping again. I’m not saying Bush will hit 60, but there is plenty of time for him to crawl back to the mid-40s. And as we’ve seen over the past 5 years, the WH has managed to push through a lot of legislative nightmares on the thinest of margins. I know we all wish that W won’t matter after November, but that seems unlikely to me.

  • “The Regal Moron’s popularity (31) has fallen below freezing.” – Ed Stephan

    Appropriate, considering his remaining supporters are frozen in their support of his stupid policies.

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