National polls are interesting, but the race for the Dem nomination remains a state-by-state battle. Last week, I went over the latest polls out of Pennsylvania and California, so today I thought I’d update you on recent data from a number of other key states — Arizona, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, and Alabama.
First up is Arizona, which holds a key early primary on Feb. 3, 2004, just one week after New Hampshire. A statewide poll released yesterday suggests the race will come down to Howard Dean and Wesley Clark. (The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent)
Dean — 32 percent (up from 16 percent in July)
Clark — 24 percent (up from zero in July)
Kerry — 15 percent (down from 23 percent in July)
Lieberman — 15 percent (down from 37 percent in July)
Gephardt — 8 percent (down from 10 percent in July)
Everyone else below 5 percent, including Edwards who garnered just 1 percent support (ouch)
Next up is New Hampshire, site of the nation’s first primary. Every statewide poll for the last three months has shown Dean with a big lead over John Kerry, but a Suffolk University poll released yesterday showed the race tightening a bit. (The margin of error is +/- 5 percent)
Dean — 25 percent (down from 30 percent in late-September)
Kerry — 19 percent (up from 17 percent in late-September)
Clark — 11 percent (up from 10 percent in late-September)
Lieberman — 8 percent (up from 5 percent in late-September)
Gephardt — 7 percent (up from 6 percent in late-September)
Everyone else below 5 percent (except “undecided,” which came up big with 23 percent)
Not to be outdone, Iowa, which holds its state caucuses the week before the New Hampshire primary, is also proving to be very competitive. Dean and Dick Gephardt have been battling for months for first place in Iowa, and a poll released yesterday shows Dean falling a little behind.
Gephardt — 27 percent (up from 23 percent in September)
Dean — 22 percent (down from 23 percent in September)
Kerry — 15 percent (down from 17 percent in September)
Clark — 11 percent (up from 8 percent in September)
Edwards — 11 percent (no change from September)
Everyone else below 5 percent
Wouldn’t it be funny if Clark finished fourth in Iowa without even trying?
Speaking of the Midwest, a poll was also released in Michigan earlier this month that shows a closely divided race for support in the state’s Feb. 7 Dem caucuses. (The margin of error is +/- 5 percent)
Dean — 21 percent
Clark — 15 percent
Gephardt — 13 percent
Kerry — 13 percent
Lieberman — 12 percent
Everyone else below 5 percent
Lastly, I also have the latest results from Alabama.
Clark — 13 percent
Gephardt — 11 percent
Lieberman — 9 percent
Sharpton — 9 percent
Dean — 5 percent
Everyone else below 5 percent