It’s the indefinite troop presence, stupid

[tag]Senate[/tag] [tag]Democrats[/tag] are, of course, still [tag]divided[/tag] over a policy for the future of [tag]Iraq[/tag], but instead of focusing on their differences, it’s worth taking a moment to note a point of agreement that has eluded them for a very long time.

The debate in the Senate this week has pushed Dems in two camps: those who believe in a [tag]phased[/tag] [tag]redeployment[/tag] plan that would begin this year but has no set date for a full [tag]withdrawal[/tag] vs. those who prefer a phased redeployment plan that sets a deadline for withdrawal of July 2007. Sens. Levin and Reed are championing the prior; Sens. [tag]Kerry[/tag] and [tag]Feingold[/tag] the latter. Apparently, most of the caucus prefers the option without the firm deadline and the pressure is on Kerry to compromise.

But before internal divisions completely undermine the Dem message, such as it is, the party should emphasize one point: just about all of them are against an [tag]open-ended[/tag] [tag]commitment[/tag] in Iraq, and most Republicans are for one. As Matt Yglesias said, “[A] focus on shifting U.S. policy away from an open-ended commitment seems like a reasonably compelling baseline that at least everyone to the left of Joe Lieberman could be down for.” And as Kevin Drum added, “The key issue, after all, isn’t really setting some precise date for withdrawal redeployment, it’s making clear that an open-ended commitment is a dumb policy.”

Indeed, it is. Based on the rhetoric from congressional [tag]Republicans[/tag] lately, their policy — [tag]stay the course[/tag], [tag]wait and see[/tag] — could last [tag]indefinitely[/tag]. Think about the logic: we can’t set a [tag]deadline[/tag], we can’t establish a [tag]timeline[/tag]; we won’t rule out [tag]permanent[/tag] bases; and any kind of premature withdrawal is “cutting and running.” The question the GOP needs to answer is simple, “Is there any length of time that’s too long?”

They say three years isn’t long enough. Fine. What about five? Or 10? How long is too long? How many U.S. casualties are too many? How many hundreds of billions is too expensive? The Republican answer, apparently, is that no cost is too great and no time commitment is too long. We’re there and we’re not prepared to leave. If they concede that there is some kind of limit to our commitment, they open the door to Dems saying we’ve already reached that limit.

For Dems to make this an internal fight over a fixed deadline is foolish — the GOP line is a hanging curve over the middle of the plate.

Thankfully, Josh Marshall kindly offers the Dems a script.

“President Bush thinks we should stay in Iraq forever, as far as the eye can see. He’s said it himself. He says, ‘Getting out of Iraq is up to presidents who come after me.’ I don’t agree. That’s too long. I don’t know if we’ll be able to get our troops out of Iraq in 6 months or even a year. But I want to start working on getting them home as soon as I get into office. And staying in Iraq for at least three more years, like President Bush wants, is too long.

“My opponent is with President Bush on this. More of a blank check. I disagree.

“We’ve got too many challenges around the world to keep burning through money and our men and women in uniform just because President Bush can’t admit that his policies aren’t working.”

Almost by accident, the Dems have stumbled upon (tripped over?) the debate on Iraq they can win and that the GOP doesn’t want to fight: Republicans have no exit plan and see no end to the war on the horizon, while Dems believe we’ve waited long enough and we should get our troops out of the middle of a civil war.

Dems should embrace this debate with both arms. As a policy matter, the Republican policy is a dangerous sham. As a political matter, the public overwhelmingly agrees with us. Sure, Dems are divided on the details, but let’s not miss the forest for the trees — they see an open-ended, indefinite war; we see a mistake that it’s time to correct.

As I posted on another blog (sorry CB), whenever I hear the “stay the course” mantra, I think that what they really mean is this:

Stay the course and pray for a miracle to get us out of this quagmire.

It is what I call the “Stay and Pray” strategy.

Since we know that Bush believes that he is God’s chosen one, he probably believes that if we stay long enough and pray hard enough, we will eventually be victorious.

  • Kay Bailey Hutchinsen (sp) said yesterday that we could not have a date for withdraw a year from now. Why not? Because things won’t be better by then.

    We have to stay in Iraq for more than a year with no end date in sight because Republican’ts CAN’T MAKE THINGS BETTER. And they know it!

    Just ask the next damned Republican’t toady who uses the term ‘cut and run’ why the Republican’ts and the Bushites can’t make Iraq better in a year?

    You have to got to get them to admit they are too incompetent to win the war.

  • Nice point, Lance. At some point it all comes down to the Republicans inability to get the job done.

    Marshall’s script is spot on. Can these jackasses stick to it? We’ll see.

  • Steve –

    I think you and Josh are neglecting the implications of the GOP stance. They’re selling their “Stay the Course” “plan” as the key to the war on terrorism. Better to fight them there rather than here and all that. To what extent that idea resonates with voters, I’m not sure, but it has to be addressed somehow. It’s difficult because there’s enough ambiguity with regard to what’s really happening in Iraq to cloud the judgment of voters. It’s very difficult to convince folks that what we have is a civil war and not terrorist attacks. That’s why the GOP is taking the “as long as it takes” position. Their message is that the GOP will stay as long as it takes to kill the terrorists.

  • The new argument for keeping troops in Iraq, I predict, will soon shift to “protecting” Iraq from Iran.

  • The plan all along has been to establish a permanent presence in Iraq, because the war is about controlling oil supplies, and it’s time for the Dems to call the Republicans on this. The Democrats can win on the permanent vs. ultimate complete withdrawal issue, and for the life of me I don’t know why they didn’t start down this path when plans for the mega embassy and huge, (permanent) military bases were revealed.

  • Tom Harmon, radio comentator, set the frame on this issue as:

    “End the Occupation of Iraq”

    That says it all. And 90% of Americans support that policy.

  • Why is the model of South Korea and Japan a bad one – why are rural bases a bad idea? Everyone talks about the false choice presented by the GOP “cut and run” bs, but there are other options besides having 130,000 troops in the heart of Bagdad or 0 troops anywhere. Do we really think that a complete pull out next July isn’t going to result in widespread violence that could pull in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey? That we wouldn’t have to go back in if there was another Middle East war, even under a dem prez?

    The US isn’t going to be pulling out completely for years, if ever, and it’s not dependent on whether or not the GOP has plans for “controlling oil supplies”. The dems should have a stated position on this. Why isn’t anyone talking about this?

  • Our policy should be CUT AND RUN.

    I really mean that. We have no business being there, and we have much that needs doing here.

    George Bush has had over three years to defend his poor excuse for manhood. It’s not worth another life, another injury, another dime of our treasury.

    CUT (losses) AND RUN (home). As quickly as possible.

  • As I said over at my blog (crass personal commercial promotion), any policy that can attract the support of both me and Dianne Feinstein, who I have cordially and not-so cordially opposed for 34 years, is a winner.

    Redeploy To Win.

    It’s not what’s really needed. Ed’s right about what’s needed. But getting enough Democrats into office in November, using that policy tagline, will result in the terms of debate changing. Let’s remember that Roosevelt ran in 1932 on a promise to balance the budget and install fiscal responsibility.

  • “Their message is that the GOP will stay as long as it takes to kill the terrorists.” – Kurzleg

    The ‘terrorists’ (Osama, remember him) are hiding in the mountains of the tribal regions of Pakistan.

    The ‘terrorists’ in Iraq are second stringers who are only in there because we are in there. The insurgents are native Iraqi who want our occupation to end. The ‘terrorists’ (foreign fighters) might chase us home, the insurgents won’t.

    We leave Iraq, we will have fewer people to fight.

    “CUT (losses) AND RUN (home).” – Ed

    Maybe: “CUT (our losses) AND RUN (out of the burning house).”

  • What the Republicans are really saying is “Stay the Curse.” Iraq is an albatross around our necks. It’s a money pit that will bleed is green and red and is not worth the cost in terms of dollars and lives. Iraq is now a Persian Gulf welfare state supported by the U.S. taxpayer. We are so over-committed there that we will have to ask all terrorists to come there because the only place we can afford to fight them is in Iraq.

    If American troops leave, insurgents won’t have us to shooot or blow-up and will have to find something else to do — like getting a job and making a living. It’s time for Iraqi oil to start paying for national reconstruction and the only way that will happen is when it’s in the Iraqi national interest to do so. But Iraqis must first have a reason to quit sabotaging refineries and pipelines, which they do now since the perception is that foreigners are making all the money off of it.

  • Why not use the administration’s own rhetoric against them? They’ve been saying that things are getting better in Iraq, and, anyway, they’re not as bad as they seem. Well, if that is true then we should definitely be making plans to get out. If it isn’t, then we’re being lied to. Either way we win.

    On a related note. Isn’t the death toll (of Americans) in Iraq reaching the number that died on 9/11?

    It seems appropriate to make a little chart comparing the damage that the terrorists have done to our country vs. the damage that GWB has done to it. Categories could include: Number killed, number injured, families affected, monetary cost to the US, world opinion about us. The last has the added advantage that OBL actually improved the way we were seen by the rest of the world. It should look like those charts that marketers use to show that their company’s product is better than the competition’s, maybe with a check mark to show which side has the advantage in each category.

    And it should fit easily on a tee shirt.

  • Dems are divided on the details,

    As are the Republican’ts. They don’t seem to want to discuss any details of thier “plan” so we needn’t either. Everytime they say the Dems have no plan, we should respond: “what is your plan?”

    Marshall, et.al. are right on. We have to embrace this debate, as Karl Rove is giving us no other options for the 2006 midterms. Given that, we need a coherent, memorable response. Not a plan. Not a detailed, nuanced policy. So, anytime the question comes up on what should be done about Iraq, the Dem response should be:

    “Something different that’s for sure. President Bush’s lack of a plan and the Congressional GOP blank check support for an open-ended committment aren’t working. Its costing too much in terms of American lives and tax dollars and its creating more enemies of America.”

  • John Kerry? I can’t believe this “idiot” wants to run for the White House again? Like Robert Bryd and Ted Kennedy, he will die in the Senate. Or are you telling me that you would prefer to see John Kerry as our commander-in-chief and the leader of the Free World? I think we dodged a bullet in November of 2004.

    The Islamic crazies we are fighting are of an expansionist mind-set; THEY are the empire builders–an empire ruled by the laws of sharia. Taking our marbles and going home is not going to work. They are coming after non-Muslims, in Asia, in Africa, in India, in Europe…..

    Cutting and running is suicide.

  • Cutting and running is suicide.

    As opposed to what, Jose? Doing what we’ve been doing? That hasn’t actually been a stellar success you know. You do realize that we are creating more hatred of America in the Muslim world, right?

  • This should be about exit strategy.

    Their strategy is to stay there and build a friendly democracy. This is “the 50 year plan”

    When they say you want to “cut and run” our response should be to talk a victory strategy and an exit plan.

    They have no victory stragegy or exit plan. They have a plan for permanent military bases in Iraq and a “50 year plan” of nation building.

    Their plan will be requires the blood sweat and tears of our kids and grandchildren.

    Bush will leave the exit plan and the victory straegy to “future presidents”
    Congress has rubberstamped the 50 year plan.

    No more kicking the can on down the road. Time for new leadership in DC to win this thing and get the helll out.

  • The ‘terrorists’ (Osama, remember him) are hiding in the mountains of the tribal regions of Pakistan. The ‘terrorists’ in Iraq are second stringers who are only in there because we are in there. The insurgents are native Iraqi who want our occupation to end. The ‘terrorists’ (foreign fighters) might chase us home, the insurgents won’t. – Lance

    You get no argument from me on these points, but it might be difficult to convince voters of the distinction even if it is a crucial one. Staying the course implies killing the terrorists in the minds of many, many voters, which illustrates how difficult a task the Dems have ahead of them.

    If we substantially drew down our forces, would the Iraqis be strong enough to expel AQ fighters from Iraq? I have no doubt that they wouldn’t tolerate this crew, but could they expel them? Would AQ even attempt to take over the country as Jose suggests they would?

  • “If we substantially drew down our forces, would the Iraqis be strong enough to expel AQ fighters from Iraq?” – Kurzleg

    Are the Iraqi only tolerating the presence of foreign fighters in their country because both are fighting the Christian occupiers? The Baathists and other Iraqi insurgents outnumber the al Qaeda about ten to one. And I imagine they can be just as ‘nasty’ as al Qaeda in Iraq. I mean, even the name is insulting. Not to mention the al Qaeda practice of killing Sunni tribal leaders is going to get them in a LOT of trouble.

    So why not get out of the way and let them at it 😉

  • Jose: Think about the inconsistency of your logic. If the Muslims are attacking non-Muslim all around the world, what are we doing in Iraq?
    The last thing that Al Qaeda wants us to do is cut and run (to our own base, from which we can react to real threats to America). They have our military capability stretched to its limits and our key resourses tied down fighting a comparative hand full of “terrorists”, or as I would call them more appropriately by their more accurate title, guerilla fighters. We cannot even react to a resurgent Taliban guerilla war in Afghanistan. Shouldn’t the US consider intervention to stop radical Muslim tribal takeover in Sudan for instance? Might we not also consider using our military to capture “dead or alive” Mr Osama bin Laden?

    We will not stop internecine war in Iraq no matter how long we stay, any more than British presence in Northern Ireland has stopped that guerilla war. It will take political commitment by the warring parties after wearing themselves out on the battlefield, losing the support of their respective constituencies, and then making the compromises necessary to stop the killing. The occupying US forces only exacerbate the elements of conflict.

    The war on terror in the end does not mean a shooting war, per se. Its an ideological, cultural, psychological, et al, “war”. We need to realize that we are in for a very long conflict with radical Islam. Read Sam Harris’s “The End of Faith”. It has taken a thousand years to moderate the Christian religion from harsh literal interpretations. Islam will need a long period of civilizing before its religious culture becomes tolerant enough to live in harmony with other world cultures. Or do you propose to invade and subjugate the entire Muslim world? No? Well Bush is trying to do that in minature in Iraq now. Cut and run from that idea.

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