For months, nearly every national poll has shown Democrats with pretty sizable leads over Republicans on generic ballot questions and on issues of national significance. Now that the GOP believes it has “so much good news popping out these days I don’t know where to start,” has the party made any gains with the public? Not so much.
Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. They are more inclined to deliver significant gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans won control of the House and Senate in 1994.
Those surveyed are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gasoline prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.
President Bush looms as a significant drag: 40% of Americans say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush.
In other words, everything is the exact opposite of what Republicans would like to see. The effort to nationalize the campaign has been effective; the electorate is anxious for change; Dems lead on the issues; and an unpopular president isn’t any help at all.
Perhaps most importantly, voters are engaged in ways they haven’t been in years: 44% say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” the highest level recorded since the question was first asked in 1994, and 7 of 10 say they are “very motivated to get out and vote this year.”
Other findings of note:
* Americans are increasingly likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Including those who “lean” to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats; 38%, Republicans. That’s the biggest edge for Democrats since 1998.
* Democrats are preferred by double digits to Republicans on four of the five top-ranked issues: Iraq, government corruption, the economy and health care.
* Asked which party’s candidate would they vote for in their district, Dems lead 54%-38%, the biggest lead this year on the question.
The only discouraging result: 61% of poll respondents said their own representative deserves re-election, fueling the idea that everyone hates members of Congress, but their own member is fine. For what it’s worth, however, that’s the lowest support on this question since 1994.
It seems to me I recall something kind of interesting happening in ’94….