First, the good news. Fifty House [tag]Republicans[/tag], most of them slightly less conservative and nearly all of them worried about re-election, wrote a letter this week urging Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) to schedule a floor vote on a [tag]minimum-wage[/tag] [tag]increase[/tag] this week. [tag]GOP[/tag] leaders, suddenly worried about “bolstering a thin list of legislative accomplishments” in advance of Congress’ summer break, appear ready to give in and hold a vote.
It’s very reminiscent of the last minimum-wage increase, shortly before the 1996 elections, when the Republican leadership decided an increase would pay political dividends. This year, the GOP not only wants to accomplish something that people care about before the midterms, but the party also wants to take away one of the Dems’ more salient [tag]campaign[/tag] issues.
But before anyone celebrates, let’s remember nothing is easy when it comes to House Republicans.
GOP leaders … are considering a measure that would link a minimum-wage increase to a bill allowing small businesses to pool together to buy health insurance. They are also considering a measure that would allow employers to offer more flexible work schedules, freeing them from rules that mandate a 40-hour workweek.
Both moves would be risky. Democrats and labor unions have fought the small-business group health plan, maintaining that it would circumvent state health coverage mandates, such as cancer screenings and other treatments. Such a bill died in the Senate in May when Republicans came up five votes short of the 60 required to cut off a filibuster.
The flextime bill, which Republicans have sought for more than a decade, is strongly opposed by labor unions that say it would deny millions of workers overtime pay. AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney decried both the insurance and the flextime measures as unacceptable “poison pills.”
This is a risky game for the GOP.
The Republican leadership appears willing to swallow a minimum-wage increase, but they want to add a spoonful of big-business sugar to make the medicine go down. Dems, on the other hand, want a minimum-wage increase to benefit working people, but they also want a “clean” bill. All the while, there are at least 100 Republicans who don’t want an increase at all.
Indeed, if the leadership believes an increase will help the party in midterms, Dems can (and probably will) look for an excuse for a fight — and tell the unions they’ll pass a real minimum wage increase as the majority party next year. Of course, it’s just as likely Republicans leaders will decide that they’ll intentionally muck up the bill, force Dems to balk, and they try to blame the minority for the bill’s failure.
Boehner and Hastert, therefore, have to walk a tightrope. My hunch is the leadership can read the polls as well as anyone else, and they’ll cave and give the Dems what they want, assuming the Dems stand their ground.
It should be interesting. Stay tuned.