For a couple of weeks now, my friend Tom Schaller has argued that Sen. [tag]Joe Lieberman[/tag] would not run as an independent if he loses next week’s primary to [tag]Ned Lamont[/tag]. Today, one of Lieberman’s colleagues predicted the same thing.
A Democratic senator said Friday that if Sen. Joe Lieberman loses his [tag]primary[/tag] Tuesday by a significant margin, he expects the Connecticut lawmaker to abandon plans to run as an [tag]independent[/tag].
Sen. [tag]Frank Lautenberg[/tag] of New Jersey, who just days ago campaigned with Lieberman, said a decisive win by anti-war challenger Ned Lamont would probably drive Lieberman off the ballot in the November general election.
In more troubling news for Lieberman, Lautenberg also said he would back the Democratic nominee who emerges from the primary, a view shared by several senators.
Lautenberg said a defeat by a “significant margin” may force Lieberman to walk away from the race. Lautenberg added that a double-digit Lamont primary victory should prompt Lieberman “to take a look at what reality is.”
Should Lieberman lose on Tuesday, as now seems increasingly likely, pressure from his friends and colleagues will quickly grow intense. A small handful of Dem lawmakers have committed to supporting Lieberman against the elected Dem nominee, but the vast majority of the party establishment will politely-but-firmly ask him to walk away.
Will he?
Getting a read on this guy is difficult. To be sure, I think Lieberman should gracefully exit stage right if rejected by voters in his own state and his own party, but he also seems to have this odd belief that the seat, quite literally, belongs to him. If Lieberman wasn’t prepared to abandon the party, he wouldn’t have announced his independent intentions in July.
That said, Josh Marshall is right that a clear defeat in the primary “will have a catalyzing effect.” Lieberman may have decided in the abstract that he’d keep on fighting, even if that meant a three-way race, but when he made that announcement, he was ahead in the polls and expected to win the primary. Indeed, the idea may have been more of a threat than a promise.
It’s one thing to collect petition signatures in July for an independent bid; it’s another to wake up on Wednesday morning to headlines throughout your home state calling you a loser … followed by several dozen phone calls from friends and colleagues telling you to quit … followed by the prospect of losing two elections in your home state in less than four months.
To be sure, the polls may be wrong and Lieberman may still win the primary. I’m not in Connecticut and I have no idea what to expect. But I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if a Lamont victory would be so humbling that Lieberman will find it impossible to pick up the pieces and mount a serious independent bid.