So, just how big a deal is Tuesday’s Senate primary in Connecticut? The Washington Post’s Dan [tag]Balz[/tag] has a very good piece today that argues, persuasively, that the outcome “could be a party watershed.”
The passion and energy fueling the antiwar challenge to Sen. Joseph I. [tag]Lieberman[/tag] in Connecticut’s Senate primary signal a power shift inside the Democratic Party that could reshape the politics of national security and dramatically alter the battle for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination, according to strategists in both political parties.
A victory by businessman Ned [tag]Lamont[/tag] on Tuesday would confirm the growing strength of the grass-roots and Internet activists who first emerged in Howard Dean’s presidential campaign. Driven by intense anger at President Bush and fierce opposition to the Iraq war, they are on the brink of claiming their most significant political triumph, one that will reverberate far beyond the borders here if Lieberman loses.
True or not true? Consider the political entities, far beyond the individual candidates, affected by the primary.
The race is likely to have a significant impact on:
* The Democratic Party — “This sends a message to all Democratic officeholders,” said Robert L. Borosage of the liberal Campaign for America’s Future. “You’re going to have a much tougher Democratic Party.”
* The influence of the blogosphere and the netroots community — Blogs aren’t solely responsible for Lamont’s success, but his campaign and the netroots are inextricably linked, especially as far as the media is concerned.
* 2008 positioning — Balz wrote, “An upset by Lamont would affect the political calculations of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who like Lieberman supported giving Bush authority to wage the Iraq war, and could excite interest in a comeback by former vice president Al Gore, who warned in 2002 that the war could be a grave strategic error. For at least the next year, any Democrat hoping to play on the 2008 stage would need to reckon with the implications of Lieberman’s repudiation.”
* Perceptions about Bush and the GOP — “Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Friday he is not worried about the fallout from the Senate primary on House races, arguing that the message from Connecticut is that anyone supporting Bush’s war policies is in deep trouble. ‘What’s playing out here is that being a rubber stamp for George Bush is politically dangerous to life-threatening,’ he said.”
* The right’s short-term strategy — “Republicans are already seeking to exploit a possible victory by Lamont as a sign that Democrats are moving too far to the left on national security issues. ‘They want retreat — under the guise of ‘reducing the U.S. footprint in Iraq,’ William Kristol writes in the latest issue of the Weekly Standard.”
What do you think, is the primary hyped, or might the results send a shockwave through the political establishment? If Lamont wins, will the effects leave a lasting impact? If so, what will the results of the shake-up be?