Monday’s political round-up

August 7, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Embattled Rep. [tag]Bob Ney[/tag] (R-Ohio), up to his ears in the Abramoff scandal and facing a likely indictment, announced this morning that he will not run for re-election. Ney has asked state Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Ohio) to replace him, and she told reporters that she will seek the seat. Polls have shown Democrat Zack Space running strong against Ney.

* In New Jersey’s closely-watched Senate race, Sen. [tag]Bob Menendez[/tag] (D) continues to lead state Senator [tag]Tom Kean[/tag], Jr. (R) in the latest Rasmussen poll, 44% to 38%.

* If Georgia Lt. Gov. [tag]Mark Taylor[/tag] (D) got a post-primary bump, it’s hiding well. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Taylor trailing Gov. [tag]Sonny Perdue[/tag] (R) 53% to 39%.

* Three new polls all show Gov. [tag]Ed Rendell[/tag] (D) leading former football player [tag]Lynn Swann[/tag] (R) by various margins. IssuesPA shows Rendell up 35% to 27%; Rasmussen shows him leading 50% to 40%; and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion has Rendell ahead 51% to 35%.

* Speaking of Pennsylvania, the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion poll shows the Senate race between [tag]Rick Santorum[/tag] (R) and [tag]Bob Casey[/tag] (D) tightening. Instead of the double-digit lead to which Casey had no doubt grown accustomed, the new poll shows Casey up by six, 45% to 39%. An outlier?

* And in South Carolina, Gov. [tag]Mark Sanford[/tag] (R), once considered a safe pick for re-election, has seen his lead shrink considerably in the most recent Rasmussen poll. Sanford now leads state Sen. [tag]Tommy Moore[/tag] (D), 47% to 38%. It’s the first time this year that the incumbent has fallen below the 50% threshold.

I thought the wording of Ney’s comment about his chosen successor was amusing.

  • Santorum has been running TV spots for a while now. At first I thought it was odd that he did this so early. But it’s not odd at all. He’s got a lot of desperation, and a lot of cash. I haven’t seen any ads from Casey yet, so I’m not surprised the race has tightened a bit. But these numbers? I hope they’re an outlier.

  • I wonder what Casey’s doing wrong or Rick (the “P” is silent) Santorum is doing right to win (he never does anything right). I always find it hard to believe that the amount of TeeVee ads alone will move voters minds, but then I keep expecting the best from America, not expecting what always happens. The boobocracy strikes again.

  • I wonder if we here in Ohio can sue to keep Ney on the ballot—kinda like they did in Texas to that fat bugsquasher? Damn—I’m going to have to research that one….

  • Update: As far as I can tell, if Ney pulls out before August 19, his district has to hold a special election to fill the remainer of his term. From August 19-23, the local party bosses can select his replacement. Here’s the kicker—after August 23, it looks like Ney would either have to serve out the remainder of his term, or the seat must go vacant until the next session convenes on January 3. In order for the Padgett thing to work, they have to hold off for the second slot—August 19-23. They’ll also need to place her name in as the official replacement candidate for Ney before 4 PM on August 23.

    That leaves things in a pickle for the GOP. With just under 11 weeks, they’ll need a massive transfusion of funds to get their candidate’s name recognized. They can’t take the money Ney raised—he hasn’t raised squat in funds. People won’t donate to a total unknown; the district is rural (pieces/parts of 16 counties, I think). That leaves outside funding as the primo option…and it smells a lot like a K Street Special—which is why Ney couldn’t raise funds this time around to begin with.

    I’m thinking that this district just went to the Dems….

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