Earlier this week, a memo written by Republican pollster Fred Steeper and sent to RNC Chair Ken Mehlman was leaked to the media. It contained polling data that showed — surprise, surprise — everything the GOP has been doing is exactly right. The base still loves Bush, Republican voters are motivated for the election, and GOP voters everywhere question Dems on national security.
On the other hand, a new AP-Ipsos poll offers a more objective view.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted this week found the president’s approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, matching his low in May. His handling of nearly every issue, from the Iraq war to foreign policy, contributed to the president’s decline around the nation, even in the Republican-friendly South.
More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall’s congressional elections — 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest.
Two years after giving the Republican president another term, more than half of these voters — 57 percent — disapprove of the job Bush is doing.
That last part is surprising. I didn’t believe the RNC memo’s claim that the president enjoys an 88% approval rating from Republicans, but I didn’t expect 57% of self-identified Bush voters to say they disapprove of his job performance. In all, nearly one-in-five Bush voters from 2004 said they plan to vote Democratic in November.
For congressional Republicans, none of the results was good news.
But fewer than 100 days before the Nov. 7 election, the AP-Ipsos poll suggested the midterms are clearly turning into a national referendum on Bush.
The number of voters who say their congressional vote this fall will be in part to express opposition to the president jumped from 20 percent last month to 29 percent, driven by double-digit increases among males, minorities, moderate and conservative Democrats and Northeasterners.
On the generic ballot question, Dems lead Republicans, 55% to 37%.
All of this, of course, comes from a poll conducted before yesterday’s announcement about the thwarted terrorist plot in Britain. Here’s a question: will the news help the GOP, hurt it, or have no impact? I’m leaning towards door #3 myself.