The conventional wisdom was so widely believed, there hardly seemed any point in questioning it. The alleged [tag]terrorist[/tag] plot would be a political boon for the [tag]Bush[/tag] [tag]White House[/tag], the timing would hurt Democrats, and the story had the ability to completely reshape the last 12 weeks of the campaign cycle.
Since the story captured the nation’s attention, however, seven national [tag]polls[/tag] have been conducted. If there was a bump for Bush, it’s hiding well.
* Zogby: the president’s job [tag]approval[/tag] rating dropped from 36% to 34%.
* Gallup: his approval rating fell from 40% to 37%.
* CBS News: the president’s support remained flat at 36%.
* Newsweek: Bush’s approval rating improved to 38% from 35%.
* Fox News: the president’s support remained flat at 36%.
* AP/Ipsos: his approval rating fell from 36% to 33%.
* Harris: the president’s support remained flat at 34%.
In six of the seven national polls, the president’s support dropped or remained the same since Americans heard about the alleged terrorist plot. In other words, the story that would obviously help Bush’s standing isn’t helping him at all.
I think we’ve reached a point in which hitting the panic button simply no longer works to the Republicans’ benefit.
I don’t doubt that people are still worried about terrorist attacks, but for years now, it’s been a given that any time the nation turned its attention to the possibility of a threat, Bush would benefit. For reasons that I’ve never been able to appreciate, Americans trusted the president on this issue, even when they distrusted him on everything else.
With this in mind, Rove & Co. saw this as a trump card, to be played at politically convenient times. It led to, among other things, repeated instances in which the administration raised the terror alert level during the presidential campaign, even when the director of Homeland Security believed the threats were based on flimsy evidence.
It appears increasingly clear, however, that the trump card has been played a few too many times — and it’s lost its effectiveness. Americans were confronted last week with what was billed as the biggest terrorist plot since 9/11, and they largely decided that they approve of the president a little less than they did before.
I don’t know for sure whether last week’s threat was legitimate or hyped, but in either case, it was supposed to be a reminder to all of us that we have a commander-in-chief who knows to combat terrorism. Unfortunately for Republicans, fewer and fewer Americans actually believe this.