Thursday’s political round-up

August 17, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. [tag]Joe Lieberman[/tag] (I) expanding on earlier general-election leads thanks to strong support from Connecticut Republicans. In a three-way race, the poll shows Lieberman leading [tag]Ned Lamont[/tag] (D), 53% to 41%, with Republican [tag]Alan Schlesinger[/tag] trailing badly with 4%. “Sen. Lieberman’s support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz.

* Speaking of Connecticut, the same Quinnipiac poll showed incumbent Gov. [tag]Jodi Rell[/tag] (R) with a big lead over New Haven Mayor [tag]John DeStefano[/tag] (D), 64% to 32% among likely voters. The key to Rell’s success: 44% of likely Democratic voters are backing the incumbent.

* In Tennessee, a new Rasmussen poll shows the Senate race a little more competitive than it was. With both parties’ primaries behind them, former Chattanooga Mayor [tag]Bob Corker[/tag] (R) leads Rep. [tag]Harold Ford[/tag], 48% to 42%. The six-point margin is significantly better than the 12-point lead (49% to 37%) Corker enjoyed a month ago.

* In New Jersey, a new poll from Republican pollster Strategic Vision shows Sen. [tag]Bob Menendez[/tag] (D) with a narrow lead over state Sen. [tag]Tom Kean[/tag], Jr. (R) 42% to 40%.

* And in Florida, Rep. [tag]Katherine Harris[/tag] (R), who has more than filled up her controversy quota for the decade, has a new campaign problem: she’s touting endorsements from Republicans who haven’t actually endorsed her. “Several members of the U.S. House called the Harris campaign to complain Wednesday after the St. Petersburg Times notified them of the endorsements listed on Harris’ Web site. Minutes later, their names were removed.”

Has there ever been a better example of how R’s play to win in a more cohesive, cut-throat, team-identifying way than D’s do than Connecticut?

Lieberman over time has a 90% pro-Dem position voting record. Yet R’s in droves will back him anyway — no logic, just a hell of a good opportunity to stick it to “the other side.” In the meantime, 44% of D’s back the Rethug governor. Mathematically, it would seem some registered Democratic Lamont supporters are also backing Rell. Ouch.

Our side just really doesn’t have the fortitude to play this game at the highest levels the way it is played these days. . .

  • Katherine Harris is a lunatic. I don’t want her to win, and of course she won’t, but it would be humorous to see what a complete fool she would make of herself as a republiocan U.S. Senator. Oh wait, we already have several of those. Never mind.

  • The Connecticut race is delicious, in a way. Lieberman looks like he’ll get enough cross-overs to win in November. I hate him on the issues that matter (principally, support for a war which even Republicans and the Pentagon are abandoning). But is fun to see the GOP throwing all it’s support to a guy who’s 90% Democrat (and an extreme liberal on some issues).

    When I lived in CA the Communist Party knew it didn’t have a chance in some election or other (central, southern CA?) so they threw their “weight” behind the Republican candidate. Pretty amusing really. If we were willing to credit the Democratic Party with that much sophistication — concocting this scheme to make suckers of the GOP — what would we call it? Bait and switch?

  • * In New Jersey, a new poll from Republican pollster Strategic Vision shows Sen. Bob Menendez (D) with a narrow lead over state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 42% to 40%.

    Is there a third party candidate, or are there an amazing 18% undecided? 18%?!

  • Edo,
    Follow the link embedded in “narrow lead” and you will see that 18% is undecided. If there was a third party candidate, CB would mention it.

  • thanks slip kid no more. my company’s firewalls prevent me from opening a surprising number of links.

    18%? Am I the only one that’s surprised by how large that number is?

  • Bait and switch?

    No Eddie, Lieberman was always pretty popular with moderate GOP, Dem members and independents in throughout CT, hence his landslide in the last general election. You see, many of us in the state are not rabid partisans and can vote across party lines. The left wings hatred of the current administrationcloded this important fact in CT politics. In this case picking the Senator that best represents the constituent’s views trumps party politics.

    What’s going to be most amusing to see his how Dem party leaders handle Lieberman as his lead widens. Can you say “flip-flop” their endorsements to try to sway him back to the left?

  • Florida’s a safe Dem seat and Jersey’s a toss-up. Screwy world.

    The only thing dumber than Harris staying in has been Corzine dropping out (to become governor). Polls taken a year ago said Menendez would have a tough race against Kean, whereas Corzine would’ve been a shoo-in.

  • * In New Jersey, a new poll from Republican pollster Strategic Vision shows Sen. Bob Menendez (D) with a narrow lead over state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 42% to 40%.

    Is there a third party candidate, or are there an amazing 18% undecided? 18%?! — Edo

    A friend of mine who lives and votes in NJ says that she and her family/acquaintances are having a serious crisis of conscience about that one:

    On the one hand, Kean is the son of an ex-Governor, without an ounce of dirt on him. Menendez, OTOH, is a known slimeball (so she says), on top of which Corzine had picked him without considering better/more palatable picks.

    So, she says she and her husband have decided to vote for Menendez, but just this once, to give the Democratic Party a leg up and to speed the Bu..$h.. Gang on its way into trial and oblivion. But, apparently, not everyone is willing to swallow so much bitter medicine, especially when they look at Connecticut (and smell the cleaner/fresher air following the true democratic process).

    Hence so many undecideds.

  • Not sure why you guys would get it wrong, but Lieberman did not “expand” on a general-election lead (unless you’re talking between different polling outfits, which wouldn’t be a helpful exercise anyway).

    In the general-election Q-poll, his lead shrank from 24 points to 12.

    Sure, Lieberman’s still ahead, but Lamont has cut his lead in half.

    Here’s a helpful chart:
    http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showComment.do?commentId=14003

  • Thanks itskevin,

    So in the last month, Joe has retrieved two points by taking them away from Schlesinger while Lamont took five points from Schlesinger and got another nine points from undecided.

    I think Lamont going up twelve more points than Lieberman is damn good news. But in the end he has to both energize his voters to come out more than Lieberman (not too unlikely, if Lieberman’s poll numbers are full of Republicans) and he needs to eat a little away from Lieberman’s Democratic supporters (also a solid possibility).

    Two plus months of solid campaigning is all he needs. I’m getting more and more impressed with Ned Lamont. I just wish I could see some of Jim Webb down here.

  • Libra,

    …Hence so many undecideds

    Thanks for the NJ perspective. I had no idea that Menendez was so reviled by Dems in the Garden State.

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