Seeing the obvious disconnect between Iraq and the war on terror

The key lie in the [tag]Bush[/tag] White House’s rhetoric about the war in [tag]Iraq[/tag] is characterizing the conflict as the “central front in the [tag]war on terror[/tag].” For the reality-based community, it’s never made any sense — Iraq wasn’t involved with 9/11, Hussein did not support Al Qaeda, and the invasion of Iraq diverted resources and attention away from Afghanistan and towards a country that was not an imminent threat.

But for the GOP, these inconvenient details get in the way of a winning sales pitch: If you support a war on [tag]terrorism[/tag], you necessarily have to support the [tag]war[/tag] in Iraq. As the theory goes, they’re one in the same.

To their credit, a growing number of Americans know better.

Americans increasingly see the war in Iraq as distinct from the fight against terrorism, and nearly half believe President Bush has focused too much on Iraq to the exclusion of other threats, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

The poll found that 51 percent of those surveyed saw no link between the war in Iraq and the broader antiterror effort, a jump of 10 percentage points since June. That increase comes despite the regular insistence of Mr. Bush and Congressional Republicans that the two are intertwined and should be seen as complementary elements of a strategy to prevent domestic terrorism.

In a policy context, it’s a relief to see a majority of the public look past the nonsense and recognize the disconnect between Iraq and a war on terrorism. In a political context, if the poll is accurate, the [tag]Republicans[/tag] have a real problem on their hands.

Allegedly, the GOP plan for midterms is to emphasize their “strengths” on combating terrorism. But if the public realizes that Iraq has nothing to do with this effort, what, exactly, are Republicans going to point to in the way of a record of accomplishments on the issue?

It won’t be [tag]Afghanistan[/tag], which has deteriorated and generated precious little attention from Congress. It won’t be homeland security, which Republicans have largely ignored despite Democratic attempts to boost investment.

It also won’t be serious efforts to expand use of alternative fuels, increased attention on port security, or an emphasis on law enforcement and intelligence gathering — all of which are part of the Dems’ national security strategy, not the Republicans’.

So, what’s the [tag]GOP[/tag] left with? Support for the “staying the course” in Iraq clearly won’t cut it.

Republicans better hope voters hate gay people and the estate tax enough to get them through the cycle in one piece. If I were in their shoes, I wouldn’t be optimistic.

49% of Americans believe that Iraq is part of the War on Terror?

Okay, this is why I hate polls.

Do they believe that Saddam was involved in 9/11/01(though this has been admited by Boy George II as not the least bit true) and thus the war in Iraq is an extension of the war on al Qaeda?

or

Do they believe that Saddam’s support for Palestinian Suicide Bombers (like the Saudis, he sent the families pensions) means he was a terrorist supporting Government and thus justifiably needed to be deposed as part of the war on Terror?

or

Do they believe that the conflict in Iraq is drawing foreign terrorists to Iraq in the hope of killing Americans and establishing a base for future operations, and thus is NOW a portion of the war on Terror?

ore

Are they stupid idiots who believe anything Dick Cheney says?

Inquiring minds want to know.

  • I love it when they tell us that Al Qaeda (5% of the insurgency) is going to take over the entire country and use Iraq as a homebase to attack us in the United States. Who are they kidding? Iraqis will try to get them out as soon as they’ve finished their usefullness.

    By the way…Paul Hackett on Hardball last night (Crooks and Liars). It’s the feel-good hit of the summer. Trust me.

  • Lance.
    Just because 51% do not see the connection, does not mean 49% do see it. I would imagine there are probably 10-20% that have no opinion or don’t know.

    It’s not the numbers that are important, it’s the trends. And I think last week a lot of people thought, “What do Brittan/American flights have to do with Iraq.”

  • Lance

    I doubt there’s anything that sophisticated going on. It’s more like: the 9/11 hijackers were arabs, Saddam was an arab, so striking back at him = attacking the terrorists. (Damn towel-heads.)

    My guess is if you polled the whatever percentage it is that thinks Saddam was involved with/behind 9/11 you’d find that few of them understand the difference between Iraq and greater arabia, or have any notion that Osama and Saddam were anything other than best buds. Few would know the difference between shi’a and sunni, or even that there was such a distinction. (Remember Bush didn’t know about this up to a few weeks before invading.) I think you’d find just astonishing ignorance.

  • “I would imagine there are probably 10-20% that have no opinion or don’t know.” – ScottW,

    Imagine again.

    Poll results:

    Iraq is a Major Part of the War on Terror: 32%
    Iraq is a Minor Part of the War on Terror: 12%
    Iraq is no part of the War on Terror: 51%
    No Opinion: 5%

    Since April of 2002, the percentage who thought Iraq was not a part of the war on terror has gone up 20% while the percentage who thought that Iraq was a Major part of the War on Terror has gone down 20%. Other choices have remained about even. So over four years one fifth of Americans have changed their opinion on this war. Considering the facts, that’s pretty slow.

  • “I think you’d find just astonishing ignorance.” – jimBOB

    That I can’t dispute. I can only attempt to enlighten. Which, when you come down to it, was the point of my first post.

  • Thank you, Lance.

    The utter denial of reality on the hard Right has become even more strident, recently, it seems to me. It is really, really hard for lots of people to disagree with anyone, who is being especially emphatic. Part of human nature.

    That the corporate Right-wing Media — which is to say, all Media — regularly features these nut-cases, and offers little authoritative analysis in its own voice, compounds the problem.

    Democrats are handicapped. We don’t have control of major news Media. If we accuse these guys of being crazy or liars, they just accuse us of being crazy or liars: political discourse becomes a he said, she said Monty Python skit.

    We are reduced to wishful thinking and crossing our fingers against some Karl Rove October surprise. It is kind of pathetic and sad.

  • Lance

    I was just saying that I think some on our side try to overthink this issue. It’s not that x%, having read widely and considered all the issues, came to the conclusion that Saddam was behind 9/11. Instead large numbers answer the pollster’s question on this with the default notion that all arabs/muslims are the same, so of course Saddam was involved with 9/11. It doesn’t require any grand conspiracy from the White House, just loads of abysmal ignorance.

    I don’t doubt that all the wink-and-a-nod suggestions (and some overt statements) from the administration helped propagate the notion of a Saddam-Al Qaida nexus. But it could only work if it built upon is a pre-existing base of people who don’t know anything about the social structure of the middle east.

    Given the current media/social environment, this is really to be expected. If we’ve come down from 70% to less than 50% thinking Iraq was behind 9/11, that’s no small thing.

  • I gave up caring what the public thinks when I was back in college (late ’50s, early ’60s). When the NYTimes polled support for Eisenhower’s “brinksmanship” (US responding to one Russian foot soldier entering West Berlin with full nuclear threat), a majority of the public supported the policy. When quizzed about their knowledge about the location of Berlin (East Germany, West Germany, the border between those), a huge majority had no idea that Berlin was 300 miles inside East Germany.

    Ask any group any question about anything and you’ll get a statement of “public opinion”. But that apparent “fact” didn’t exist until the questions were asked. The particles of a gas have an average speed — which can be measured in the form of the temperature of that gas — whether that speed is measured or not. It’s a physical “fact” which exists independent of measurement. Public opinion only exists as “measured”; and even the measurement process is rife with debatable issues. Considering there is usually no clear path from the statement of the so-called fact of public opinion, to actions based on it (few decisions are made through polling), who cares?

  • Dems need to start pushing this—really, really hard—at every opportunity now. They’ve got the numbers; they’ve got the advantages/disadvantages—and now, they’ve got Herr Bush himself acknowledging the disconnect, clearing the way for bringing down Herr Bush’s house of cards.

    Afghanistan is only the rear area of the central front now; the actual front should, from a military POV, be the mountainous regions of Pakistan that lay to the southeast of Afghanistan. US forces in Afghanistan are making the same critical errors as their Soviet predecessors, and the current Taliban/al-Quaeda offensives are merely a somewhat-scaled-down version of the same tactic used against the last group that was there.

    Afghanistan has all the makings of a severe disaster; it’s currently occupied by coalition brigades, instead of the 4 cohesive divisions the USSR had there previously. It would not take very much for the coalition troops to find themselves bogged down in the same crackpot defensive as during the opening round of the Tet Offensive in Viet Nam—about 4 decades ago. Then, there were ample support reserves to pour into the fight. Now? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The Marines are playing the “involuntary recall card” now, just to get enough bodies to fill the gaps in Iraq. Same thing with the Army. There are no reserve forces to deploy into the Afghan theater, should opposing force make an all-out push. Air assault is no good; you fire your missiles, and drop your bombs—and then fly home after blowing up some rocks, a tree or two, and maybe a packhorse. Tanks do nothing in mountainous regions; same with heavy artillery. Afghanistan is a “grunt” war—and most of the grunts are sitting in Iraq, watching Sunnis and Shia blow each other up.

    Ask Herr Bush one simple question the next time he rambles on about staying the course:

    If the coalition forces in Afghanistan were pressed to the point of losing (which they’re really not that far away from, should the Taliban make an all-out push), would US forces in Iraq be available for emergency redeployment to the Afghani theater of operations?

    After all, according to Inhofe—the Iraqis have a force-astrength or 325,000 “trained and equipped troops” about to come on-line.

    Let’s make the Republikanner beast make that “lesser-of-evils” choice—out in the open, in front of the cameras—and in front of the whole world….

  • I think the one idea missed above is the drop in Bush’s credibility. Almost everyone agrees that Bush oversold the WMD threat, and that he pushed this war using bogus reasoning. Whether he lied or believed it is irrelevant to this major point.

    All anyone needs to do whenever they’re confronted with the latest BS from Bush about the GWOT is say “Bush has no credibility. Period. The Democrats have a plan that has been approved by military experts and people who understand the middle east. On the other hand, the president’s plan is just more political hackery from Karl Rove and Dick Cheney, who have even LESS credibility if that’s even possible.”

    KEEP IT SIMPLE:
    1) Remind the viewer/reader Bush has no credibility. REPEAT AD NAUSEUM.
    2) List examples of generally accepted Bush whoppers. WMDs, Iraq-AlQaeda links, Budget deficits, Body armor. Make a list and use it.

    His lack of credibility is the beach-head. It must be reinforced before launching other attacks.

    http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/blbushcredibility.htm

  • Americans are truly the stupidest people. Wasn’t this settled back in June of 2004?

    9/11 Panel’s Findings Vault Bush Credibility To Campaign Forefront

    By Dana Milbank
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Sunday, June 20, 2004; Page A01

    …After the [9/11] commission staff released its findings Wednesday that there was no “collaborative relationship” between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda — challenging an assertion Bush and Vice President Cheney have made for the past two years — Bush declared again that there was, in fact, a relationship…

    …Bush has long sought to link the Iraq invasion to his popular war on terrorism after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon….

    …Cheney said Thursday in a television interview that he “probably” knew things about Iraq’s ties to terrorists that the commission did not. …

    …Cheney, on CNBC, said the media had been irresponsible in reporting the commission’s findings. “What they [the commission] were addressing was whether or not they [Iraq] were involved in 9/11,” he said. “They did not address the broader question of a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda in other areas, in other ways.”

    In fact, commission spokesman Al Felzenberg on Friday confirmed that the commission was addressing the broader relationship…

    …In particular, the poll showed that Americans are beginning to decouple the war in Iraq from the war on terrorism,/b> — a belief that could be aided by the commission’s dismissal of cooperation between Iraq and al Qaeda. Still, Andrew Kohut, who directs the poll, predicts Bush will be able to keep al Qaeda and Iraq tied in the public’s mind; about half believe such a connection has been proved, various polls indicate. “So many people believe it because he’s saying it,” Kohut said…

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54702-2004Jun19.html

  • So, what’s the GOP left with? …Republicans better hope voters hate gay people and the estate tax enough to get them through the cycle in one piece.

    According to Digby, look for more macaca moments, as some sort of counterbalance to the Katrina anniversary.

    God, I feel dirty just typing this strategy; I’m glad I don’t have the job of coming up with such.

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