In 2004, the gender gap shrunk. Kerry beat Bush among women voters, but by a narrow three-point margin, which was significantly smaller than the advantage Clinton and Gore had in previous cycles. Among women in the South, the gap swung in the other direction entirely — Bush won 54% of Southern female voters.
The AP, however, notes in a fascinating item this morning that Bush’s “once-solid relationship with Southern women is on the rocks.”
“I think history will show him to be the worst president since Ulysses S. Grant,” said Barbara Knight, a self-described Republican since birth and the mother of three. “He’s been an embarrassment.” In the heart of Dixie, comparisons to Grant, a symbol of the Union, is the worst sort of insult, especially from a Macon woman who voted for Bush in 2000 but turned away in 2004. […]
“In 2004, you saw an utter collapse of the gender gap in the South,” said Karen Kaufmann, a professor of government at the University of Maryland who has studied women’s voting patterns. White Southern women liked Bush because “he spoke their religion and he spoke their values.”
Now, anger over the Iraq war and frustration with the country’s direction have taken a toll on the president’s popularity and stirred dissatisfaction with the Republican-held Congress.
The evidence goes beyond amusing anecdotes. The most recent AP-Ipsos poll found that three out of five Southern women (60%) plan to vote for a Dem in the midterm elections.
What’s driving the trend? Take a wild guess.
The movement of some Southern women away from the Republican Party tracks with national poll results showing that women have become more disillusioned with the war and were more likely than men to list the conflict as the important issue facing the country.
Nationally, the AP-Ipsos poll found that only 28 percent of women approve of Bush’s handling of the war. Bush did better in the South, but only slightly — just 32 percent of women in the region said they approve of his handling of the war.
“I never did understand why we went into Iraq and didn’t instead clean up the mess in Afghanistan first,” Knight said.
Knight added, “I’m going to go for the moderate, and these days that tends to be Democrats.”