About August’s downturn in Iraqi violence…

September 7, 2006

Given that the war in Iraq offers precious little to be encouraged about, news that the death toll in August was down considerably was welcome. Whereas in July the Baghdad morgue received more than 1,800 bodies, U.S. and Iraqi officials boasted a little over a week ago that the death toll was reduced dramatically in August, to about 400 bodies.

Officials immediately seized on the encouraging numbers as proof that Iraq had turned the corner. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki told CNN, “The violence is not increasing…. No, we’re not in a civil war. In Iraq, we’ll never be in civil war. What you see is an atmosphere of reconciliation.”

Or not. Revised figures were released today — and they weren’t encouraging at all. (thanks to Hark for the tip)

Baghdad recorded more than 1,500 violent deaths in August, according to final figures released this week by the Health Ministry. The final count was roughly the same as the figure the ministry released for July, before the U.S.-led security crackdown began in the Baghdad area.

The final figure also was nearly three times the preliminary count released by the same ministry last week.

If accurate, the final figures cast doubt on U.S. and Iraqi claims of a significant reduction in the level of violence here since the crackdown was launched Aug. 7.

Asked about the latest Iraqi figures Thursday, U.S. spokesman Lt. Col. Barry Johnson refused to provide an explanation, merely referring The Associated Press to a statement on a U.S. military Web site that said the murder rate in Baghdad dropped 52 percent from the daily rate for July.

So, how exactly did this error happen?

My friend Michael J.W. Stickings ponders the circumstances.

Both the U.S. military and Iraqi authorities, after all, had good reason to report a significant drop in Baghdad’s death toll — that is, to lie. For both, as well as for America’s civilian leadership back in Washington, a drop would have indicated that real progress was being made in establishing order in Baghdad, in protecting Iraqi citizens from the insurgents and more generally in combating and overcoming the insurgency itself, transferring security responsibility from U.S. forces to Iraqi forces, and in setting up a stable political climate from which the U.S. could comfortably withdraw and in which the fragile Iraqi government could govern effectively. But…the truth can be found at the Baghdad morgue.

Keep in mind, this wasn’t a minor clerical error; the body count was off by a factor of three.

I’m sure an explanation will be released any day now. Whether it’s a persuasive explanation is another matter entirely.

See this is different from Vietnam. Now we want body counts low. Then we wanted them high. Whenever I see headlines about “200 Taliban killed” I always remember the phrase from the Vietnam era. “If it’s dead it’s Viet Cong.”

This “reduction” happened during an almost total lockdown of the city as well with curfews and auto bans. Not exactly the model metropolis.

  • Today, you can say anything you want — just as long as you say it first. When evidence to the contrary comes out, question it or the motives of those who put it out. All offense, all the time.

  • The solution to this is simple. Just close down the Bagdad morgue. Geez, do I have to think of everything around here?

    /snark

  • It wasn’t a reporting error. It was as reportudrama. Sometimes accidents happen and you just go with them. Sort of a newsmakers liscense, if you will.

  • I cannot understand why the American people are not sickened and horrified by the wreckage of a sovereign nation, the slaughter of God knows how many tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi citizens, the maiming, wounding and disabling of many times more, the destruction of their infrastructure and oil industry, and the crippling of their economy, and all for what?

    How did we ever come to this? How can any American ever ask again how the German people let their country get out of control?

    Bush and his regime are monsters. There’s just no other way to put it.

  • Well in their defense, at some point the count has to get lower, I mean their are only so many bodies in Iraq.

    Reportudrama, excellent, and I will offer factadrama.

    My take is that we have blown that country so far back in time, they are using their fingers to count bodies, but some of the normally reliable counters, have less fingers then they did last month.

  • Obviously when we export democracy we export the way our government falsifies statistics. The Bush administration must share with the less developed nations of the world the great advances it has made in manipulating numbers.

    Next we will teach the Iraqi government how to purge scientists and other experts whose overly reality-based views differ from those of the people at the top. Though I imagine they might still remember how to do that from the Saddam era.

  • Did you see the video from Afghanistan on the BBC news last night? It came from British troops (media not allowed in this area) in the southwest, showing them in constant fire fights with Taliban troops. The Brits are in forward fire bases and it looks just like Vietnam, without the trees.

  • It’s obvious that none of you are accountants (or, in my case, former accountants).

    You see, most people think that numbers REFLECT reality.

    In accounting, the primary axiom is that numbers CREATE reality.

    Thus it is with every facet of the smirking chimp’s regime.

  • Death by car bomb doesn’t count – Update, but no surprises, from the Washington Post:

    “A U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, Lt. Col. Barry Johnson … also disclosed that the military’s numbers included only “individuals targeted as a result of sectarian-related violence, to include executions,” and did not include “other violent acts such as car bombs and mortars.”

    I wish I could say this surprises me. However, since Chimpy McFlightsuit began raping the definitions of freedom, democracy, America (not to mention President) beyond recognition, selective definitions of violent death don’t really phase me. They make me want to smack a few heads, but they don’t surprise me.

    I would be interested to know how they do classify being blown to bits by a car bomb. Traffic accident?

    At this rate we’ll soon hear there are NO deaths in Iraq, there never WERE any deaths. A bunch of people just decided to lay down for a prolonged nap.

    Nothing to see here people, move along.

  • Nouri Mali(gna)ki:

    “The violence is not increasing…. No, we’re not in a civil war. In Iraq, we’ll never be in civil war. What you see is an atmosphere of reconciliation.”

    Burp!

    [From too big a swallow of the camp koolaid…]

  • At this rate we’ll soon hear there are NO deaths in Iraq, there never WERE any deaths. A bunch of people just decided to lay down for a prolonged nap.

    Nothing to see here people, move along.

    Comment by The Answer is Orange

    Anyone lying down for a nap in the middle of an Iraq street is *not news*. Possibly good enough for a National Georgraphic program (The Peculiar Customs of the Desert Natives), to be screened on Tuesday at 13:00, if at all.

    Which is as it ought to be… We have no interest in Iraq, we have never been in Iraq, we don’t even encourage tourism in Iraq.

    WTF are you talking about Orange? We will be coming for some more detailed answers soon

  • “…we don’t even encourage tourism in Iraq.”

    I just want to make sure I understand: Do you mean TOURISM, as in traveling for pleasure,
    or
    “TURISM,” as in how Mr. Mission Accomplished prounouces “Terrorism”?

    If you mean the former then I certainly agree. If you mean the latter, I must respectfully disagree.

    (Nyuck, nyuck, nyuck)

  • Hey, here’s a question… why lie without a sufficient amount of (possibly fabricated) evidence when you’re under this kind of scrutiny? Obviously – given the discussion here – I don’t see this helping the Bush administration’s credibility at all.

    If they WERE lying, the administration, evidently being masters of deception, would have successfully hushed up any evidence to the contrary, wouldn’t they? Sounds more like someone messed up to me.

    Ah, but the discussion’s two months old and I’m just a silly old conservative, move along…

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