Monday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Florida’s Republican leadership will meet in Orlando in about an hour to pick a replacement candidate for former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.), but whomever they choose has to hope voters in Florida’s 16th district really want a Republican representative. Foley’s name will appear on the November ballot and voters will choose between Foley and Tim Mahoney, Foley’s Democratic opponent. Republicans have to hope that voters in this relatively competitive district vote for Foley anyway, with the understanding that his Republican replacement will actually take office in January. Few seriously believe this will happen.

* In Tennessee, Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker, who has lost a once-large lead over Rep. Harold Ford (D), has replaced his campaign manager with just 37 days until the election. Former campaign manager Ben Mitchell is still technically with the campaign, but Tom Ingram, Sen. Lamar Alexander’s Chief of Staff, will be running the show from now on. As a rule, drastic change-ups so close to the election usually indicate trouble within a campaign.

* In Virginia’s closely-watched Senate race, Jim Webb’s fundraising troubles have been a major concern for months. It appears, however, that Webb has turned things around in this area as well: the Democrat will apparently report having raised more than $3 million during the past three months.

* In Massachusetts, a new Boston Globe poll shows Deval Patrick (D) with an enormous lead over Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) in the state’s gubernatorial contest, 55% to 30%.

* A whole slew of polls were released by Mason-Dixon over the last 24 hours, and most of them suggest Dems are poised to have a very good year:

* In Maryland, Ben Cardin (D) leads Michael Steele (R), 47% to 41%
* In Missouri, Jim Talent (R) is tied with Claire McCaskill (D), 43% to 43%
* In Montana, Jon Tester (D) leads Conrad Burns (R), 47% to 40%
* In New Jersey, Bob Menendez (D) leads Tom Kean Jr (R), 44% to 41%
* In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) leads Mike DeWine (R), 45% to 43%
* In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D) leads Rick Santorum (R), 49% to 40%
* In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D) leads Lincoln Chafee (R), 42% to 41%
* In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) leads Bob Corker (R), 43% to 42%
* In Washington, Maria Cantwell (D) leads Mike McGavick (R), 50% to 40%.

Dems need a net gain of six to win back the Senate. If all of these races go the Dems’ way (including Missouri, which is now tied), that’s a net gain of six.

It will be interesting to see if those Dems who voted for the torture bill will be punished at the polls for doing so.

  • I’m with bubba on the torture issue; Lamont could play this out successfully to demonstrate that he’s not just a “one-issue” candidate (Iraq), and the “yea” of Joe Lie could be the literal end of his tenure in Washington….

  • If the election is a s close as this polling, look for the Republicans to take all the close finishes into court. They will try Bush v. Gore in TN, OH, RI, and NJ. Same goes for close house races.

    Who would Jesus torture?

  • Nice to hear that Webb is racking the dough in. I guess that Hollywood finally ponied up 😉

    Or maybe it’s just when the choice is between a racist and sexist who uses a French-Tunisian slur against a native-born Indian-American and who threw the n-word around in college and who kept the confederate flag hung at home and a noose hung at the law office and who spits tobacco juice at the feet of women and who opposed women going to VMI

    versus

    a racist? and sexist who used the n-word in his first book and who opposed women going to the Naval Academy,

    we might as well vote for the one who won’t vote for Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.

  • How reliable/accurate is Mason-Dixon considered to be? Does anyone know their rep, vis-a-vis the other major polling firms (zogby, quinnipiac, rasmmussan, gallup, Wall-Street/NBC, etc.)?

    The big outlier in the roundup from what I see is the New Jersey poll. That’s the first poll in a long time (okay, several weeks) that puts Menendez in the lead.

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