Sunday Discussion Group

October 8, 2006

It’s fairly obvious which story dominated the political landscape this week, but let’s take a step back and consider exactly what the Foley scandal will mean in the midterm elections.

The answer may seem obvious, but there are some competing possibilities, and a reasonable case could be made for each.

* The Foley scandal will bury the GOP — Voters were already souring on the status quo, based largely on the disaster in Iraq, and the Foley scandal has pushed them over the edge. Republicans have lost their moral authority; they appear incompetent; and they have left voters with the impression that Congress is run by dysfunctional criminals. As soon as the cover-up for a sexual predator became front-page news, America decided that it had seen enough; Republicans no longer deserve the majority.

* The Foley scandal will have little impact — The public can’t look away from the scandal, but this isn’t a controversy that’s actually changing anyone’s mind. The latest poll from the Pew Research Center, conducted after the Foley story broke, found little to no change among voters about which party they’re more likely to support in November. It’s about sex, so most people want all the salacious details, but when voters step into the booth, Foley won’t matter.

* The Foley scandal may actually help the GOP a bit — This notion, floated by Michael Crowley the other day, suggests the Foley scandal has “smothered coverage of horrible violence in Iraq, the Iraq NIE, ignored pre-9/11 warnings, the Woodward book, the potential collapse of Afghanistan, a possible North Korean nuclear test,” etc. Foley and the cover-up are embarrassing, the theory goes, but one sexual predator does not an election change, and this week’s coverage became a distraction from more important disasters — Republicans would have really been in trouble if the Middle East had been the major topic of conversation this week. As Crowley asked, “If you’re a GOP candidate, would you rather moralistically denounce Mark Foley’s behavior — or defend your position on Iraq?”

So, what do you say? When it comes to the Foley fiasco, is it a win, a loss, or a draw?

The Foley scandal will not help the GOP. The voters who were still with the President on Iraq and terrorism were evangelicals and hardcore values voters. True conservatives and moderates had already left. The Foley scandal didn’t just hit the GOP voting base, it hit the segment of the base that was still loyal.

The Foley scandal will do more than hurt a little bit, because it puts those values voters in the position of having to choose between their religion and their political affiliation. And that’s not a hard choice for them. They voted Republican as long as they felt Republicans were concerned about homosexuality, etc. This isn’t just a shock to them, it’s treason.

How much will it hurt the GOP? Well, it’s not like nobody will vote Republican. Most races will still be incumbent blowouts or tight. But I think Republican turnout will be down, and that that will help Democrats. Will they take the House or Senate? I have no idea. I think the Senate will be tougher to pull off.

  • This sentence sums it up nicely, but it needs some editing. “Republicans have lost their pretense of moral authority; they finally appear incompetent; and they have at long last left voters with the correct impression that Congress is run by dysfunctional criminals aka Bush Crime Family.”

    I sincerely hope there will be televised trials by Congressional committee of those who aided in, or sat silently by, the years-long coverup, and if some Democrats go down with the thugs, good!

    I agree that all Republicans should be grilled about this, over and over, before Nov 7, but so also should the Democrats: what did you know and when? and, while we’re at it, what have YOU done to end the Iraq quagmire or to reduce or stall tax breaks for the obscenely rich? All these people, both parties, need their butts kicked good and hard. After Nov 7 they’ll just give us the finger and line up for another two years at the gravy trough.

    Am I a little bitter and cynical.? Yeah, or ‘ya’ as I’ve learned to spell it this week… sounds like it should be followed by ‘seig heil’ or something, doesn’t it?

  • I don’t believe this will change many R votes to D. What it will do is turn off some R voters, and more importantly turn off some R volunteers.

    The shortage of GOTV volunteers, coupled with message chaos caused by Susan Ralston’s departure, will hurt R turnout.

  • Not bury, but hurt. I think this story is similar to Katrina in that Americans don’t need to have it explained to them. With Katrina, they saw one thing on the tube and heard another from the WH, and they believed their eyes. With Foley, everyone already knew you don’t mess with kids, and they had a low opinion of Congress anyway. So when the House leadership launched a series of lame and contradictory defenses, people got disgusted. Where this could get tricky is if Repubs find a Dem or two guilty of some perverted behavior, and you better believe they’re trying.

  • It’s definitely a win, even if for no other reason than we just picked up a seat in the House by default, Congress has one less child molester in its midst and the GOP was exposed for everyone, not just liberals, for the ass-covering fucking liars that they truly are. The damage has been done. The GOP House “leadership”, for want of a better word, is no longer trusted.

    Elsewhere, Nicholas Kristof on Iraq: “…Sudan’s president is able to defy calls for international peacekeepers in Darfur because he plays on Arab fears that the U.S. plans to do to Sudan what it has done to Iraq. All over the globe, American diplomacy is hobbled because of Iraq.”

    Kristof raises an excellent point: How come no one’s asked the Iraqis what they want and need instead of us telling them what they need?

  • It will help the GOP. All the undecided sexual predators, or all the GOP sexual predators who were not energized enough to come out to vote, will finally realize who represents them and help the Republicans keep majorities in close districts.

  • I’m with Swan, we’re just one step closer to Cheney invoking Satan in public campaign stops – not just the onese behind closed doors…

    -jjf

  • huge huge g.o.p. loss.

    A must-read, via Gilliard.

    The only repub talking point after the election, if they are lucky, will be ‘it could have been worse.’

  • The Republicans will lose both houses because of Foley, simply because it has turned off ordinary Republicans and exposed the Republicans as the hypocrites they are. I will even break through to the authoritarian-follower type.
    Sara Robinson at Orcinus had a quote a while back that she has repeated today:
    And yet, even so: There is one — and only one — sin so heinous that it cannot be rationalized away by the authoritarian thought process. It is this: the leader’s main job is to protect his abused and terrified horde from personal harm (or, for that matter, any sudden negative change to their immediate status quo). A leader who wantonly allows one of his followers to intimately experience such harm breaks that contract. It is in that moment of betrayal that some followers come to their senses, and start looking for a reckoning.

    It’s important to note: the betrayal must be an intensely personal breach that has a deep, immediate, life-changing impact on the individual follower. Fundies don’t think in abstracts. Big national debts, epic political prevarications, and other people’s suffering (even on a global scale) do not impress them. But there are plenty of authoritarian parents across the country who proudly sent a son or daughter off to war — and later received that precious child home under cover of darkness, in a wooden box, with minimal explanation. That’s the kind of personal and profound loss I’m talking about. For many of these patriotic parents, it was also the searing moment of deep betrayal that broke the spell and shoved them off in the direction of the Wall.

    Among fundies, the most common perpetrators of these betrayals are parents — particularly fathers — and pastors. As the most intimate authorities in their followers’ lives, they’re at close enough range to inflict the kind of high-impact personal damage that’s necessary to create the first crack. Many of the ex-fundies I know made their break in the aftermath of sexual abuse, ruinous financial treachery, public humiliation, or power grabs that threatened their marriages or children. They saw, in devastatingly vivid color, what their leaders were capable of. Their endless loyalty was shattered, because they realized it was not being returned in kind.

    The whole article, which ties the initial quote to Foley’s Follies is much worth reading.

  • Sex is easy to relate to because everyone carries it between their legs. A sex scandal, therefore, draws in lots of people who might otherwise not pay much attention to politics on a day-to-day basis. That’s the last thing the GOP wants. Too many people looking too closely under their hood is bad news — hence yesterday’s poll results.

  • I’m leery of any polling done to date on this. I don’t think it has fully sunk in yet with a lot of people. The real damage hinges on what happens with Hasert.
    If the scandal is limited to Foley alone, there’s plenty of time for people to move on to the next outrage. If Hastert gets dragged deeper into it, the repubs will wish they were following Napolean into Waterloo.
    The danger for republicans is that a Foley/Hastert scandal would crystallize what many of us have known for years – Republicans will not police themselves under any circumstance

  • In the comments to the article there is a link to a list of those Republicans convicted of various types of child sex scandals. (I am sure there could be a list of Democrats as well, but the Democrats have not wrapped themselves in morality in the way Republicans have.)

    I have no idea how many of these are accurate, and many involve minor — no pun intended — local officials, but it is quite a list.
    http://progressivegoldbeta.blogspot.com/2006/04/grand-old-paedophilia-partythis-is.html

    (I have seen other, longer lists, but they seem to be the sort where any allegation is thrown in, even from the NATIONAL ENQUIRER. This list seems to be at least moderately well researched and discusses only cases that seem to have led to legal cases.)

  • Some commentators spoke of a “silver lining” in 2002, and again in 2004, when GOP controlled House, Senate and President. “They won’t have anyone else to blame”, was the theory, “and better they be in power for a few years so as to allow the complete colapse of the Republican Party.”

    I thought this was just rationalization, and the “bargaining” stage of the five stages of grief.

    Now, I think those commenters may be right. For all our suffering the past 2, 4, and 6 years, we may finally be rewarded with a crushing blow to the party of the powerful and selfish elite. (Knock on wood, hope, hope, hope.)

  • Apparently, “if it bleeds, it leads” doesn’t apply anymore.

    All anyone has to do to get front page news is scream “Sex!” and the reporters will come running.

    Being an outsider (Canadian) who visits the States regularily and as Homer Simpson sagely put it, likes to “watch TV in other time zones” especially the news. What I’ve found is that there is a huge lack of news from out of state (unless its Hollywood or sports) and foreign news. In Canada, our local hour newscasts have some 10 to 15 minutes devoted to foreign news and the same amount devoted to national news.

    Put in that context, my view on the Foley scandal is that for most folks, Iraq is too distant and abstract. I know it sounds callous, but considering that only a RELATIVE few folks are directly affected by this. And consider that average folks are self centered and ignorant about the actions outside of the US even out of their own state (even when US soldiers are fighting and dying in their name.) And this is what I think what the Bush Admin was counting on. I will state that what is happening in Iraq and how the US got there is MUCH MUCH more important than Mark Foley attempting to seduce pages.

    Unfortunately, for the GOP, most folks have kids and most of them have sex from time to time. 99.9% of them don’t like adults preying on kids (even teenagers.) That is my take on why sex scandals have such focuse and why this Foley mess resonates with them.

    It kills the faith of their most loyal foot soldier, the common Fundy, who apparently don’t like sex outside of procreation, especially homosexual kiddie touchers. It destroys the notion that it is God’s Own Party. If there is one thing that Fundies do not like is to question their own faith.

    It won’t cause a clean sweep, but my guess is that Foley’s misadventures will reduce the margins of victory to uncomfortable levels for even the most jerrymandered disctrict.

  • Hastert will be toast. I don’t know if the hearings before the ethics committee will be televised, but even without that, if there is anyone who has good editing equipment and puts together the various contradictory statement he’s made, and the ones that Shimkus, Beohner, Reynolds, Fordham (who may become the John Dean of the scandal) have made, they can make him seem as ridiculous as he has been. (Maybe send it to Keith for a special “Worst Person in the World” extended segment?)

    (Oh, and of topic, thanks for whoever listed my blog, but it has been inactive for months. I may be restarting it after the elections. But I do much better in comments for some reason than in my own posts, except for my guest posts at Salto Sobrius)

  • i agree w/most of that which Dan said, but october’s not done yet and fuck knows what rove’ll dredge up from the depths of the shitpit of his mind. and then there’s diebold. i’d be there poll-watching or whatever in november but i’m like 3,000 miles away — been watching this trainwreck of bu$hCo bullshit for over five years now and am still totally horrified and disgusted, mostly w/those at home who have neither an idea nor care about things like Constitution-eroding shite and signing statements et al., and what the rest of the world thinks of US.

  • Crowley:

    “…but one sexual predator does not an election change…”

    Spoken by someone who STILL hasn’t learned the value of one good swiftboat.

  • Well, it certainly can’t help them. It just saddens me is that the only thing the American public cares about enough to change things is dirty IMs and emails to a 16 year old boy. That’s dirty, yes, and everyone who covered for him should be shot (metaphorically) but we’re still talking about the moral failings of a few people.
    .
    What saddens me deeply is the complete failure of my entire country to care at all about torture, imprisonmente without trial, surveillance without warrant, the repudiation of checks and balances, the end of the rule of law, increased government secrecy, and so on. We don’t care about any of THAT, but dirty IMs shake the republic to its foundations. Even if Foley had diddled the lad, it still pales as a moral issue in comparison to Abu Ghraib.

  • Who knows? Four weeks is a lifetime in a election season, and anything can (or will) happen between now and November.

    But the realist in me say it’s at best a draw and maybe a win for Republicans. I agree the Foley scandal takes the heat off of Republicans for 9-11, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and Abramhoff. But what’s worse is that it distracts Democrats and leads them to a sense of irrational exuberance. Sure the Republicans are terribly wounded and desperate, but we’ve been in this position before. Democrats never seem to be able to deliver the coup de grace.

    The media will lose interest in the Foley scandal, barring any terribly new charges. Republicans will rally, and their loyal base will swallow their disgust and turn out. For them, there are more important things at stake than a GOP pedophile — think control of the Supreme Court and saving the Dear Leader from troubling subpeonas and investigations.

    Democrats need to focus here. Talk about Foley, but talk about some or all of the other more pressing issues as well. Don’t even think about office and committee assignments. We haven’t won yet. Dems need to fight like hell as if their political lives depend upon it.

  • I no idea what the ultimate impact of the Foley scandal will be. Personally, I have found it major distraction from issues of far graver importance such terrorism, the economy, the Iraqi Civil War, and the impending war with Iran. That said, if it helps to serve our purpose of capturing at least on house of Congress, then the distraction would be worth the annoyance. How could it help the Democrats?

    The first impact would be the direct impact on the races of Republicans tied to the scandal. Foley’s seat and Reynold’s seat are the will be the most likely to fall as a result of the scandal. It also will put Hastert’s seat into play, but I don’t think he will loose.

    There may also be an indirect impact. I see three mechanisms by which the scandal will have an indirect effect. The first will be the suppression of the “value” vote. This is the primary concern of the Republican leadership and the reason that Rush, Drudge, Brooks, Dobson, et.al. are so busy trying to shift the blame to Democrats. To actually gauge this impact on needs to have a better knowledge of the intricacies of the polling data. The Pew poll which CB refers to does not show that Republican voters have decided to switch their votes to Democrats. The poll does not ask whether one is more or less likely to vote as a result of the scandal broken down by party affiliation. That is a poll which I would like to see.

    Another mechanism for an indirect impact is that media has been saturated by the scandal. It has marginalized all other political discussions in the same way that a missing blond girl would. Does this hurt the Republicans, the Democrats, or is it a wash? In the plus column for the Democrats, is the fact that Bush’s scaremongering will get less coverage as a result. In the in the minus column for the Democrats is the fact that the Iraqi Civil War and other serious issues which can hurt the Republicans will not receive the attention it deserves. The focus on Foley as opposed to these more serious issues will not impact the Republican base one way or the other. The impact will be on the swing voters. So far, as the Pew poll shows this has been a wash. Since the Republicans are in power a wash is not good news for the Democrats.

    The final mechanism for an indirect impact is that it ties up the Republican leadership and their Wurlitzer. As long as they must defend themselves, they cannot go on the offensive. This impact may only be seen as the election draws closer.

    No prognostication from me. All that I hope is that the netroots has made the right decision to push the Foley scandal.

  • Not having read the other comments, which I usually do, I’ll suggest this.

    The latest poll says that Americans favor Democrats over Republicans on the war on Terror (God, I hate that term!). That means once we are off Foley, if the White House tries to raise Terror as the issue we should pound on their pre-9/11/01 failures and their post Afghan Invasion failures when they took the eye off the ball and let Osama get away so they could invade Iraq.

    Pound, pound, pound.

    If they can’t protect our children in the Page Dorm, how can they protect America?

  • If the polls are any indication this scandal will help elect Democrats. The best outcome the Republicans can expect from their tact of trying to blame Dems for “tricking” them is to make the Reps look lamo and weak. I think most people can recognize a politician’s desperation.

  • misathrope101: What saddens me deeply is the complete failure of my entire country to care at all about torture, imprisonmente without trial, surveillance without warrant, the repudiation of checks and balances, the end of the rule of law, increased government secrecy, and so on. We don’t care about any of THAT, but dirty IMs shake the republic to its foundations. Even if Foley had diddled the lad, it still pales as a moral issue in comparison to Abu Ghraib.

    testify, brother!

  • I think it’s going to hurt them.

    But at risk of “hijacking” this discussion, the points made by Michael Crowley are important. The Foley scandal has taken all the oxygen out of the room, for the NIE, the Woodward revelations, etc., etc., all of which are far more important than the self-destruction of a perverted moron, even if it does take down the rest of the Orcs with it.

    57 Americans were killed this week in Iraq! We’re in the middle of a war of government vs.insurgents, sunnis vs. shia, kurds vs. arabs, shia militias vs. other shia militias, Iranian secret service organizing attacks against us, etc., etc., etc. It’s a frickin’ DISASTER and the only place I have seen a damn thing is in the LA Times (you might want to go read their Saturday article on this).

    And here’s another crisis you don’t even know about, and it’s RIGHT NEXT DOOR!!!

    Did you know that the Mexican government sent Marines into Oaxaca last week? Not to deal with civil disorder but to take over the PRD government, since Oaxaca is the base of Andres Manuel Obrador Lopez’ movement? Did you know that the same American GOP scum who stole 2000 were the advisors of the PAN in this election? Did you know that the PAN is allying with the PRI and arming militias? Did you know that after November 2 there are going to be two Presidentes of Mexico, one recognized by half the country and the other by the other half? Did you know that Mexico is about this close >

  • Old Fumble Fingers strikes again and I don’t know why. the computer ate the post, which was all there when I hit “post”

    Mexico is this close >

  • This mess should finish the GOP, but as usual, whether it will actually impact them depends on the MSM, who for the most part seem to have already been bought and paid for by the GOP. The MSM refuses to report on GOP hypocrisy. I cannot count the number of times that a scandal has suddenly erupted around a conservative, “family values”, Republican which is followed in fairly short order by indications from memebers of the media that they knew all along that Congressman X or Senator Y was engaging in whatever the behavior was that they had been loudly and publicly denouncing.

    Another thing the MSM does to aid the GOP is how quickly they will report any charges or accusations that are tossed out by the GOP or their minions without any evidence whatsoever, and with no questioning by the MSM. This week, the media was very quick to report on Drudge’s accusation of the Foley scandal being the result of a “prank” by the pages who supposedly egged on Foley. Never mind that there was no evidence for this and that it did not pass even the most minimal tests of logic. Compare that to the MSM’s coverage of the reports of how much of the upper echelons of the GOP and their staffs are in the “closet”. The GOP machine has built their electoral strategy on bashing gays and stoking homophobia among the fundamentalists for years, but the MSM will not even mention the GOP hypocrisy involved.

  • ah,I get it. don’t use the arrows.

    Mexico is very very close to civil war, and nobody here knows it because the media says nothing. There are going to be two Presidents of Mexico after next month, there is a civil war brewing there that is going to break out by Christmas, this is going to have a huge effect on us, and the MSM reports nothing. I only know because a friend sends e-mail from down there with articles from the Mexican papers.

    Iraq war. Iraq civil war. Iran war. Mexican civil war. All caused by Republicans, made worse by Republicans, and about to explode due to Republicans. But let’s worry about one Republican pervert hitting on young Republican wannabe-orcs.

    Mencken was right: nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

  • The Foley scandal has taken all the oxygen out of the room, for the NIE, the Woodward revelations, etc., etc.

    Fundies and “Low Information Voters” were never going to pay any attention to these things anyway. At best they just help create an atmosphere of scandal that helps Foleygate resonate more.

    The political impact of the Foley scandal hasn’t become fully apparent yet. Some of it will be invisible, depressing Xtain GOTV efforts. And the Pubs, bless their hearts, have been reacting in precisely the right way to drag things out and keep the issue alive. It’ll probably end up having a powerful impact, though not enough to “bury” the GOP.

  • The damage to congress needs to be addressed. Assuming that Dems take control of one or both chambers, I hope they come with fresh eyes and clear intent to rebuild a ruined instituion. What passes now for business as usual in Congress will doom democracy unless soon corrected. Changing Rs to Ds without rediscovering constitutional checks and balances on special interests is a waste of time.

  • Another loss for the USA. Five years ago, the USA was preoccupied with the Rep. Gary Condit scandal. Anyone remember what caused that scandal to fade from the headlines? Watch out!

  • It had to come…

    Yep.

    All week when I’d hear some expert/sexpert wingut admonish that all Foley did was IM….

    I wanted someone to stand tall and wave a wad of $1000 bills and say:

    “I got $10,000 that says he did… you in?”

  • The Republicans still have massive inbuilt advantages that have to be overcome: K-Street money, incumbency, purges of voter lists, very carefully gerrymandered districts in many states, and so forth. Voting machine fraud cannot be ruled out.

    That being said, the Foley scandal has to hurt the Republicans severely. Typical “values-voting” Republicans have proven themselves to be very close-minded and incapable of seeing the benefits of tolerating anything they disapprove of, particularly if it relates in any way to sex. The argument that all people should have a right to share their life with a significant other of their choosing holds no sway for them, because the fairness issue is overruled for them by one of the nastiest things they can imagine, male homosexual love-making. They are now facing not only one of their own with those proclivities, but the fact that their leaders were protecting him at the expense of the teenage pages. The latter has to rank really low on their scale of acceptability and forgivability (well, on mine too). This is not going to turn very many of them into Democrats, but on top of the war, Katrina, and torture, surely a significant portion of the Republican base will be thoroughly turned off, and will likely only drag themselves to the polls if the possibility of a Democratic victory strikes them as a greater evil.

    However, there’s still time for things to go wrong for the Democrats and right for the Republicans. The capture or killing of Osama Bin Ladin would give Bush and the Republicans a considerable boost. Exposing some homosexual scandals involving democrats could negate the Foley-Hastert scandal. The possibility that I worry about most is that if Bush were to set up a naval blockade of Iran and managed to antagonize the Iranians into attacking US personnel, we’d all be thrown into a whole different context.

    Good news about the economy is irrelevant, because most of the benefits are flowing to the very wealthy, and no one else has had much good news, except that $2 gasoline now seems like a fantastic bargain!

  • Everyone is talking about Foley, but it seems to me that Ralston’s resignation is a bigger story.

    From the Saturday Washington Post: “The White House counsel’s office conducted a review of the report, but with Ralston’s departure it closed its inquiry yesterday. “Nothing more will come from the report, no further fallout from the report,” Perino said.

    A senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the counsel’s office reached no conclusion about whether Ralston violated gift limits because her resignation made the point moot.”

    The Whitehouse does not say that Ralston didn’t do anything wrong nor anything criminal. They say that they aren’t even going to formally investigate it because she has resigned and it is therefore moot.

    Doesn’t this sounds like lawyer speak for ‘if you make us look under that rug we’d find a big mess and would have to report it, so please just resign before we have to look and make a formal finding’.

    Plus the timing of the resignation (Friday evening in the midst of a sex scandal) seems meant to hide it.

  • “Assuming that Dems take control of one or both chambers, I hope they come with fresh eyes and clear intent to rebuild a ruined instituion.” — kali #31

    Moving forward, kail has it exactly right. Whatever Repbub misbehavior might bring Ds to majorities in Congress, Ds should regard it as a gift — a narrow window of opportunity to demonstrate that they are substantially different than the Rs. Investigate, prosecute if appropriate, and legislate without vindictiveness but with regard for untainted facts and the law. Kali mentions special interests, but I see excessive partisan politics as equally detrimental to the nation. Forget all the posturing, prove by action that Ds are ethical, moral and responsible, and all the self-righteous blather on the right is just that.

  • Hurt ’em, bad. The GOP stayed in power as the “Smear a queer for Jesus and no sex unless you intend procreate,” party. Those of us who have encountered people who are attracted to this sort of shit know that the average bigot is about as kind and understanding as a pitbull with its nuts stuck in a vice. The right-wank religion freaks were already snarling because Shrub and the GOP failed to deliver the GMA and now this? Oh no. Some of them have probably decided this goes all the way up to the White House. I don’t think they’ll vote D this November (because that would be a sin or sumthin’), I think they won’t vote.

    Pipe dream: The Base get so disgusted with the GOP they try to form their own political party. This will put all of the cretins in one place during the annual convention. Launching rockets in 5…4…3…

  • Although Foleygate is not the most important issue, it IS the issue that might get Dems back in control of Congress. THEN the important issues will get heard, otherwise not.

  • “Bury” may be too strong, but I think we’ll probably take both houses. But ultimately more important will be if those new Dems come in with an agenda, instead of simply more of the same wishy washy only-caring-about-re-election Dems who dominate the Congress now.

    I was watching Olbermann’s commentary the other night, and realized that Olbermann is really the first sign of our catching up with the approach that the Repubs have used so successfully. Opinionated anchors dominate the news, but the tradition among Democratic leaning anchors has been to stick to the older methods of objectivity, or relativism, where they present both sides, however ridiculous, and offer no comment.

    To succeed in the coming decades, we will need more Olbermann’s in the media and in Congress.

  • The Repubs have been extremely busy building-in their political advantages to the system. I still can’t say if I believe the Dems will be able to outmaneouver the Repubs to win one or both of the Houses.

    The fact that a torrent of scandals have been cascading down from Washington that each to themselves should have brought down this administration, but it has still survived, demonstrates that the Repubs have been wearing better body armor than Marines in al Anbar province. But their facade is crumbling and a gay sex scandal is the most likely thing to pitch them over the edge. All of a sudden all the anti-gay Repub rhetoric rings hollow as info comes out that they have purposefully been protecting a gay predator amonst their clan just to maintain power. What this sandal lacks is an image — the face of a young kid who Foley stalked. What keeps those missing blond chicks on the front pages? An image of someone that you can’t help but feel pity for. Once a young face is tied to Foley, then I believe the nation’s conscience will be seered. So far it’s no body, no crime.

    Don’t underestimate the right’s base to cast temselves as victims and bind themselves together ever more tightly. Until they can see a victim, especially if the victim was an underage Republican page, will the right stop seeing themselves being attacked from the outside and will start to realize they are rotting from within.

  • The only way the scandal will become inert or help the GOP is if Republicans dictate the direction of the scandal. In other words, if their blatant lies go unchallenged by Democrats and the media then the scandal will eventually become a non-issue. The GOP is very skillful in turning a bad situation for them by making the Democrats go on the offensive.

    That absolutely cannot happen here.

  • Good one Swan! Damn, I thought the dems had the sexual predator vote locked up!

    The Foley scandal will be a smoke screen only if the dems let it be. The extensive litany of thug transgressions must always be iterated. We dont want to disable the creeps, we want to decapitate them. Foleys follies and the coverup will not have legs beyond this election and just winning these midterms, historically almost a political certainty in any case, will be a pathetically hollow victory if we dont win in 08. That is the gold medal round.

  • There’s another unfortunate event awaiting the Republicans.

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm
    lists 2703 named US military fatalities in Iraq to date. Forbes listed 2736 as of last Thursday.

    On 9/11, 2,749 people died in NYC, including the people on the planes, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11,_2001_attacks
    (2973 died in all the attacks combined on that day).

    There are many reasons against comparing the death toll in NYC to our casualties in Iraq (ignoring the hideous Iraqi death toll is but one). However, it remains the case that the death toll in the US underlies the justifications for invading Iraq, and the deaths of the same number of Americans again without making us any safer is a tragic milestone that should haunt Bush and his Republicans. Also, it seems like a statistic that would resonate with average voters, if they were to hear about it.

  • “If you’re a GOP candidate, would you rather moralistically denounce Mark Foley’s behavior — or defend your position on Iraq?”

    But, they’re not moralistically denouncing Mark Foley’s behavior, most of them are denouncing either Democrats/liberal media or the evil pages who “pranked” Foley. They may think they’re dancing their way out of trouble, but mostly they’re just stepping in more and more cow shit.

  • I know, I know, it’s so annoying when someone refuses to think in terms of black or white. But there it is. I don’t like the sniggling and piling-on aspect of l’affaire Foley, nor do I think importuning pages by email and/or hypocritically embracing protective measures against people like himself is worse than enabling a preemptive strike against Iraq — or Guantanamo — or hundreds of other things the Republicans should be brought down by.

    What Foley did was pathetic and immature and ugly. It may have caused some real damage. What the House leaders did to cover it up for political reasons is even worse, in my book. What the entire Republican caucus did to enable the Bush administration in that executive branch’s really shocking behaviors and hypocrisies is far more serious than either of the foregoing and should be the reason for the Republican Party being voted into obscurity. So my disgust is with a nation which wakes up at the news of lust and sexual predation but nods off during the butchering of the Constitution.

    John Nichols’ personal account of Mark Foley (they were friends) in the Nation is interesting. I agree with his assessment of where the real scandal lies.

  • At the time of the 2000 presidential election, the country was fat and happy and bored. We were so content that we made 2000 a recreational election and elected Bush. Between then and now, we’ve experienced 9/11, a crippling unnecessary war, and deep political division. With much help from the administration, we got scared.

    Going into the mid-terms, we’re angry and unsettled, but still scared. The Republicans have done such an effective axe job on Democrats — and all its critics — we’re suddenly afraid change will be worse. For some inexplicable reason, the Republicans still get credit for being best at actual patriotism.

    The issues such as the NIE just don’t matter. If they did, things would have changed long ago. *Without* Foley, I don’t think there would be any change in power. No Senate or House changeover. As I’ve said before, sometimes good things happen for the wrong reasons. It’s possible that Foleygate suddenly becomes a valid excuse for change. I hope so.

  • @43

    The multi-column front page headline in the Washington Post is about the number of wounded soldiers (20,000+ and counting) and how this provides a better measure of how intense the fighting has become. My point? There is no good news for the GOP these days. (Unless Diebold has finally perfected the “If Democrat, Then Electrocute,” program in its machines.)

    Guess they should have paced themselves when dishing out the fuck ups. Perhaps swallowed some of that rabid rhetoric. A little restraint (fiscal, military, you name it) might have been a good idea. Oh well.

    Hey Karl? Karl-? Where’d he go?

  • Eric Massa has a nice DKOS Diary titled “They Were Warned and Did Nothing, Foley, 9/11, and Iraq”.

    If Democrats can pick up on this as the message, then both houses will fall, and we will be able to look back and say, “9/29 changed everything”.

  • The Answer Is Orange, #47, I agree, but the number of fatalities is a far starker statistic and it emotionally rather than logically forces a comparison that I think will sit uncomfortably with many Bush supporters (assuming that they hear about it).

  • America’s Moral Decline & False Christianity
    http://www.forestcouncil.org/tims_pi…ew.php?id=1171
    According to a 2003 article in Forbes Magazine big churches are big business. Researchers found that in 2003 there were 740 mega churches each averaging 6,876 participants. The average net income of each was $4.8 million at the time of the study. The Forbes article states, “[the] entrepreneurial approach has contributed to the explosive growth of mega churches“.
    It seems today there is a need for a tougher, meaner Jesus, a government issue Jesus (GI-Joe) who comes complete with state of the art Kevlar tunic, two edged sword, and secret code book (the book of Revelation). Evangelical Christians are organizing and conspiring to manipulate governments to use weapons if necessary to kill some of God’s children so that prime real estate goes to people whom they believe God likes best.

    This immoral clarity was reported recently in the Jerusalem Post. Rev John Hagee is the organizer and leader of the Armageddon war cry and has now created the powerful political lobby, Christians United for Israel (CUFI). Christians untied for Israel (CUFI) includes Jerry Falwell, Benny Hinn, Jack Hayford, George Morrison, Rod Parsley and Steven Strang and many other media evangelicals. According to Hagee, “ The goal is to be strategically placed to successfully lobby Washington on behalf of Israel… Every state in the Union, every congressional district will be accounted for.” Reportedly, this lobbying group represents 30 million evangelical Christians. As we know, congress alone has the power to declare war. Will it be Christians who pressure elected officials into war? Will it be people who declare themselves to be Christ-like, who use his name to sound the collective war cry which unleashes the deadliest weapons on earth? George W. Bush said recently that “all options are on the table” when it comes to Iran….read more
    __________________

  • It would be grand if the Foley scandal achieved a true change in Congress, but it probably won’t have any real affect. As we are aware, people are unhappy with Congess in a generic way, but they’re unhappy with the OTHER PERSON’S representatives. Furthermore, the GOP has successfully gerrymandered districts to the point that as Bob Scheiffer noted, Congress has become “an incumbent protection society, which accomplishes virtually nothing”. Here in Alabama West (Arizona), twerps like Rick Renzi are entrenched and virtually untouchable.
    One possible solution, as hard as it might be on progressive incumbents, would be to start agitating for term limits on representatives and senators. Term limits might disrupt a system of special interest money buying Congress. Term limits could force well financed groups such as the religious-right to more frequently scramble and spend to find suitable candidates. Term limits probably wouldn’t make things any worse than they have become.

  • TIME Magazine says it all:

    ***Every revolution begins with the power of an idea and ends when the only idea left is power.***

    Hastert, in remaining stubbornly in his office, has committed the unpardonable sin of the Great God Reagan—he has openly exposed, for the wide world to see, that the GOP’s only goal is power. They’ve rejected every ideal of the Reagan era—and that, whether they’ve the courage to admit it or not; regardless of how often or how loudly they deny it—is the ultimate blasphemy to your average Republican voter.

    You want to know how bad this thing is becoming? Two weeks ago—fourteen lousy days, to be exact, you couldn’t drive through Ashtabula County Ohio in any direction without seeing GOP campaign signs. City streets in Ashtabula, Conneaut, Jefferson, Geneva, Andover, Orwell, and Kingsville were literally smothered with the damned things. They were thicker than oak trees in the rural areas as well: Wayne, Cherry Valley, Pierpont, Dorset—wherever you drove, there they were.

    Today, driving from Andover to Saybrook and back—not a single sign is out. They’re gone. Not stolen; rather, removed by people who no longer believe in the GOP. People who had put them up—have now taken them down. People are talking about rejecting councilmen, and township trustees, and school-board members, because they’re associated with Foley, Hastert, Bush Cheney, Rumsfeld, DeLay, Ney, and “three little letters of the alphabet”—

    G. O. P.

    I don’t think Foley caused the entire problem—but I do think he was the straw that broke the Elephant’s back.

    If this were to happen everywhere else, then the GOP may find itself beyond the point of political salvation….

  • Steve, i’ve been pretty cynical about the Democrats chances, but you just made my day.

  • Living in western NY, I see what Foley has done to Tom Reynolds. He has gone from a close race to 15 points down in a week. And from listening to what people out here are saying, I believe that hit is real. Tom’s involvement in the coverup may make him more vulnerable than most Republicans, but folks in this country do love their guilt by association. I believe that American voters have heard the kid saying the Emperor has no clothes.

  • Foley might be the crack in the 21%’s varnish of denial. The whole may yet fall. Once you begin to wonder, then to doubt, then to actually think, amazing things can happen.

    Like spaceballs, I’m thrilled Steve.

  • As Washington focuses on Foley scandal
    Condoleezza Rice evades charges over 9/11
    By Bill Van Auken
    7 October 2006
    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/oct2006/rice-o07.shtml

    The fixation of both official Washington and the mainstream media on the emails of Congressman Mark Foley (Republican of Florida) and the Republican House leadership’s cover-up of his pursuit of teenage male pages has served to divert public attention from a far more significant cover-up of a far greater crime.

    For the Democrats, it provides a useful political club, without compelling this second party of corporate America to advance a single substantive difference with the Republicans on domestic or foreign policy.

    But the time and resources—not to mention prurient interest—that the media has devoted to the exposure of Foley’s emails and instant messages stand in sharp contrast to its virtual silence on the revelations—first reported September 28, the same day that the emails from Foley surfaced on ABC News—in the new book by Bob Woodward, State of Denial.

    The evidence points inexorably to one conclusion: The attacks of September 11 were facilitated by powerful elements within the government itself, which engineered a “stand-down” of the US intelligence and security apparatus. That a terrorist attack was coming was known and welcomed by those seeking a casus belli for long-planned wars to secure US hegemony over the strategic oil reserves of the Middle East and Central Asia.

    If there is no great impetus to probe these matters, it is because every section of the American political establishment, including the media and the Democratic Party, is so thoroughly implicated…read more

  • According to the NYTimes there is anecdotal evidence that the Foley scandal will not suppress the Christian right vote this fall. The Christians interviewed by the Times believe that Foley and Foley alone has committed a wrong.

    As word of Representative Mark Foley’s sexually explicit e-mail messages to former pages spread last week, Republican strategists worried — and Democrats hoped — that the sordid nature of the scandal would discourage conservative Christians from going to the polls.
    But in dozens of interviews here in southeastern Virginia, a conservative Christian stronghold that is a battleground in races for the House and Senate, many said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen.

    Here is the take on the situation from Wingnut Central.

    Charles W. Dunn, dean of the school of government at Regent University, founded here by the religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, said that so many conservative Christians were already in a funk about the party that “the Foley issue just opens up the potential floodgate for losses.” The tawdry accusations, Mr. Dunn said, “give life” to the charges of Republican corruption that had been merely “latent” in the minds of many voters.

    But as far as culpability in the Foley case, Mr. Dunn said, House Republicans may benefit from the evangelical conception of sin. Where liberals tend to think of collective responsibility, conservative Christians focus on personal morality. “The conservative Christian audience or base has this acute moral lens through which they look at this, and it is very personal,” Mr. Dunn said. “This is Foley’s personal sin.”

    I think we need more polling on whether this will cause “value” voters to stay home next month.

  • Perhaps what we really need is a nutcase with a nuke to distract us. Now where can we find one of those?

  • “Perhaps what we really need is a nutcase with a nuke to distract us. Now where can we find one of those?”

    I dunno, we’ve been living with one in the WH for the past six years.

    Seriouly though. George is probably off playing guitar or riding his bike and can’t be disturbed.

  • If the Democrats win Congess and legalize gay marriage, Foley can marry the page. Don’t you just love happy endings?

  • ***I think we need more polling on whether this will cause “value” voters to stay home next month.***
    —————————————————————–rege

    From what I’m seeing here, rege, there’s no polling to be done. Those GOP campaign signs (post #52) are being pulled by Methodists, and Baptists, and Lutherans, and Church-of-Christ’ers. The Republikanner beast has lost the mainstream Christian vote. They might still have the “mouth” of the Christian vote-bloc; they’ve lost the “muscle” of it, though.

    The GOP is a dinosaur in Northeast Ohio—and the “leadership”—both inside the beltway and beyond—haven’t the power to realize that, as with their “emporer,” they’ve no clothes.

    The fact that they’re politically weakened by current events is not, however, a moment to “rest on Democratic laurels.” Rather—it is the time to redouble the assault upon “Fortress Reich….”

  • Jay:
    Term limits is as bad an idea for Democrats as it was for Republicans when they were supporting it — for the same reason, they were tired of losing. Most districts are composed of people who are, in fact partisan. My district has had a second-rate Representative for 20 years — and I voted against him in primaries. But he was still, in my eyes, and the eyes of the District, ten times better than any Republican, so I voted for him in the general. He’s finally retiring, and we had two good candidates in the primary. My choice didn’t win, but I’ll still vote for the winner because she’s a good choice, but I would have picked either, or even the other two, over any Republican running.

    And solidly Republican districts think the same way, unless there is a Roosevelt/Goldwater/Watergate type upheaval — as I expect this year — or unless the population of a district changes — through redistricting or simply through people moving in or out. The usually competitive districts don’t need term limits, people don’t last long enough to be effected by them. The districts with good Congressmen — and there are a LOT of them, yes, even including some Republicans — only lose through term limits which robs them of experience. And districts like mine, had there been term limits, wouldn’t have changed hands anyway, so the party division would remain the same.

  • “So, what do you say? When it comes to the Foley fiasco, is it a win, a loss, or a draw?”

    I think Crowley, et al, should be a little more patient. The elections are still almost a month away, all those other disasters brought on by the Bush White House’s actions or inactions are still waiting in the wings and even the cable news would have gotten bored with the Foley all the time eventually (albeit, not until long after everyone else has). Now I guess for the next week to ten days it’s going to be all NK all the time. After that, who knows. Barring another scandal, I expect they’ll find their way back to Iraq and Afghanistan — just in time for the end game.

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