Polls show solid shift in Dems’ direction

October 10, 2006

Three major national [tag]poll[/tag]s — WaPo/ABC, NYT/CBS, and USAT/Gallup — all released thorough new polls overnight. Unfortunately for the [tag]Republicans[/tag], they all same the same thing: whatever the GOP is selling, voters aren’t buying.

Consider, for example, the WaPo poll:

Democrats have regained a commanding position going into the final weeks of the midterm-election campaigns, with support eroding for Republicans on Iraq, ethics and presidential leadership, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Apparent Republican gains in September have been reversed in the face of mounting U.S. casualties and gloomy forecasts from Iraq and the scandal involving Mark [tag]Foley[/tag] (R-Fla.), who was forced to resign his congressional post over sexually graphic online conversations with former House pages.

Approval of Congress has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade (32 percent), and Americans, by a margin of 54 percent to 35 percent, say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to deal with the biggest problems the nation is confronting. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said congressional Democrats deserve to be reelected next month, but just 39 percent said Republicans deserve to return to office.

On the issues that matter most, it’s a clean-sweep for the Dems, who lead the Republicans on which party people trust more on Iraq (51-38), terrorism (47-41), the economy (54-37), immigration (49-36), health care (61-28), and ethics in government (49-30).

Moreover, for the first time, a majority of the public believes [tag]Democrats[/tag] are “offering the country a clear direction that’s different from the Republicans.” That may very well be the most important question in the poll — the notion that Dems are just running as “not the GOP” has never been true, and the electorate is beginning to realize that the Dems have a policy vision of their own.

Support for the war in Iraq, meanwhile, is in freefall. As the Post noted, “Asked whether the war in Iraq has been worth fighting, 63 percent said no, the highest recorded during Bush’s presidency. Fifty-one percent agreed with Bush’s argument that Iraq is a front in the global campaign against terrorism, the lowest of his presidency.” Bush’s ratings on the war in Iraq are among the lowest of his presidency, with 35% approving of how he is handling the situation and 64% disapproving (54% strongly disapprove).

Other polls were chock full of interesting data, as well.

The NYT/CBS poll emphasized the Foley scandal.

Americans say that Republican Congressional leaders put their political interests ahead of protecting the safety of teenage pages, and that House leaders knew of Mark Foley’s sexually charged messages to pages well before he was forced to quit Congress, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. […]

With four weeks left before Election Day, the poll indicates that the scandal involving Mr. Foley, a former Republican congressman from Florida, is alienating Americans from Congress, and weakening a Republican Party that was already struggling to keep control of the House and Senate. By overwhelming numbers, including majorities of Republicans, Americans said that most members of Congress did not follow the same rules of behavior as average Americans, and that most members of Congress considered themselves above the law…. Seventy-nine percent of respondents said House Republican leaders were more concerned about their political standing than about the safety of teenage Congressional pages.

And USA Today/Gallup noted the huge lead Dems now enjoy on the generic ballot question.

A Capitol Hill sex scandal has reinforced public doubts about Republican leadership and pushed Democrats to a huge lead in the race for control of Congress four weeks before Election Day, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.

Democrats had a 23-point lead over Republicans in every group of people questioned — likely voters, registered voters and adults — on which party’s House candidate would get their vote. That’s double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994 and the Democrats’ largest advantage among registered voters since 1978.

Let’s just summarize this quickly: Americans are fed up with the war in Iraq, fed up with Bush, and fed up with Congress. Dems lead on everything and Foley has worsened an already-low opinion the electorate had about lawmakers. Oh, and the [tag]election[/tag] is four weeks from today.

Consider this your morale boost for the day.

Consider our morale officially boosted.

What I will be looking for this week, is for Dems to get ahead of the game on North Korea, get a sharp message out in the media emphasizing the failure of the Bush “I-can’t-face-bad-people-directly” policy. I also hope somebody hits back at Tony Snow for his shameful attack on Bill Richardson a while back. (Snow said something like,”Richardson went to Korea with chocolates and DVDs”)

  • The definition of a party in trouble:
    When you can’t conduct a poll on the issues that doesn’t sound like a ‘push poll.’

    Truman said
    “Give ’em hell? No. I just tell the truth. It just feels like hell to them.”

    Any Trumans out there?

    As for Korea, anybody looking at the Rumsfeld connection to this horror?

  • At this juncture, not talking to adversaries and welding a “pre-emptive” club around seem like silly cornerstones for anyone’s foreign policy. What were they thinking in ’02? And, why were they thinking it? Anyway, what a fine mess these Republicans have gotten us into! It’s good to see a majority of Americans waking up to the hoodwinking that has been going on for far too long now. -Kevo

  • I don’t understand why Democrats don’t run a simple commercial that lists all the failures and disasters of the GOP: Osama still out there, Katrina, Cunningham, Abramoff, Foley, deficits, Iraq, etc., etc. The list can be expanded or shortened depending on the length of the commercial and then simply end it with the message: “Had enough? Vote for change. Vote for Democrat X.”

    The commercial will not change the mind of Kool-Aid drinkers, but they will never be reached anyway. Of course, you also run commecials pointing out the strong points of the Democratic candidate, but half the messages should be the first one.

  • Finally the rest of the american people have awaken to see what some of have known all along that the republican agenda has and always will be to feed corporate america at the same time put the middle class and poor in servitude. All one has to do is look at the tax cuts 1% of the people got 95% of the tax cuts. In other words the average american got about $10.00 per week while the 1% got about $1300.00 per week. Something is wrong with that picture. According to AARP 58% of MPD Part D are now in the donut hole. While HMO’s and pharma got billions the average senior got the shaft. No Child Left Behind is a disaster with little funding from the federal gov. funny how the repubs bragg about building schools in Iraq and states and local communities have to sell bonds to fund school growth. Speaking of Iraq according to the latest news 36 american soldiers have been killed since Oct 1st, 750 injured last month and all we get from repubs is stay the course. 42 million americans without health insurance and all the repubs can offer is health savings plans (if you can’t afford health insurance how are you supposed to put money in a health savings plan). Imagine a congress that actually works for the people what a concept, the american people knowing what the government is up to. It’s still to early to gloat because we’ve all seen this movie before and we can only pray that the ending is different. It’s one thing to get elected but another to govern so if/when we get the majority we need to hold those that we elect to the standards that we voted them in for in the first place. Less make sure that the process is open so that those that now shut us out of the debate cannot rail about being a closed congress. SO WE ALL HAVE A JOB TO DO AFTER THE ELECTION. We can’t be afraid of the democratic process by not allowing open debate.

  • For the remaining four weeks I say look at what the Republican’ts think they want to run on, their self-preceived strengths, then go to the American People and explain just how bad the Republican’ts are at those issues too.

    On Security and Terrorism, point out the failure to protect our Ports, to constrain North Korea because Boy George II doesn’t want to talk to them, and the failure to defend us from 9/11/01 despite all the warnings and the failure to capture or kill Osama afterward because they willfully allowed themselves to be destracted by Iraq and Saddam.

    On Earmarks, which George Felix Allen Junior and all the other Republican’ts are bragging about, point out how Coach Hastert used the Earmark process to make millions off the American taxpayer, and point out that Earmarks (Pork) are increasing the national debt, much of it going to Communist China (Jim Webb pointed that out last night. I just wish he’d used the word Communist).

    Don’t try to run on our issues. We’ve already won our issues. Run on their issues and pound them into the dirt.

  • “Fifty-one percent agreed with Bush’s argument that Iraq is a front in the global campaign against terrorism” WTF? I hate to whiz on the corn flakes here but how can a majortiy feel Iraq is a front on the war on terror? Just repeating the words Iraq and Terror over and over and over? Bletch!

    I like the ideas you guys posted. Smack on the nut. Lance, the Republicans seem to have nothing left but to seek shelter in the old standby defense and values. Their problem this year is that Iraq & NK bring defense into doubt and Foley (as well as failed attempts to turn 2006 into 1956) has damaged their family values position.

    The important thing for Dems to do now is to kick them while they are down. Kick them hard and kick them often. We have seen the GOP has no compassion for Dems and will do anything to win. If we keep the pressure up whatever Karl Rove cooks up in the next 4 weeks will look desperate.

    Once we have control, we can get back to killing babies and forcing people to participate in a gay lifestyle.

  • Sssshhhh… MNProgressive, don’t give away our secret plan! That’s not supposed to come out until AFTER the election.

    But I do love the advice: “Kick them hard and kick them often.” That’s especially true, considering that the MSM will do their best to try and prop ’em back up again and again.

    Remember James Carville: “When your opponent is drowning,
    throw the son of a bitch an anvil.”

  • For once in the last 12 years my guess is that the “FOR SALE” sign will be removed from the Capitol but not to get to excited because most politicians only want power and if that means selling the Capitol it will happen again and again until we the voters put term limits in effect, cut the penions for the crooks, and allow public funding for campaigns.

    I don’t no what all the hoopla is about late term abortion if had to do with scumbag politicians. Four terms should be enough for congress and 2 terms for senate. Take away all retirement plans congress was set up as a public service not a job or a career.

  • “Americans are fed up with the war in Iraq, fed up with Bush, and fed up with Congress. Dems lead on everything and Foley has worsened an already-low opinion the electorate had about lawmakers.”

    The common thread in all this is Arrogance of Power. Bush is unchecked in waging a “war” whose only purpose was to secure his office. He’s also unchecked in bankrupting the nation and the next generation. Congress is unchecked because the GOP went way beyond what anyone had any reason to expect in stripping the minority party of everything. Foley’s real crime wasn’t be “being gay” (as the nutso GOP closet cases would like us to believe) … it was in abusing his position of power relative to mere pages (including former pages).

    Abuse of power is the common cause of all our government’s ills. Restoration of checks and balances (not to mention the Fairness Doctrine and an impeachment or five) will go a long way to restoring national health.

    The Bush Crime Family. It still can be brought down if we have the will.

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