They like us; they really, really like us

October 10, 2006

Following up on the previous post about the latest poll results, there’s another trend that warrants attention: the polls showed Americans actually liking Democrats for a change.

The conventional wisdom has hinted for months that Dems were in a relatively strong position this year because of widespread disappointment and disgust with Republicans. It’s not that the electorate held Dems in high regard, they theory said, it’s that Dems will benefit from simply being “the other guys.”

But the conventional wisdom is wrong about this. All of the major polls released overnight show Democrats actually appearing popular with voters.

Consider the USA Today/Gallup poll, for example. Asked for their thoughts on the Republican Party, in general, Americans have a negative impression — 55% said they have an unfavorable opinion, while 37% have a favorable impression. When it came to Democrats, the results were nearly reversed — 52% favorable, 38% unfavorable.

The New York Times/CBS poll (.pdf) found a similar trend. Respondents were asked, “In general, is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable or not favorable?” The results were 54% unfavorable, 39% favorable. It’s the first time the GOP has slipped below 40% favorability in seven years. Again, the numbers were nearly reversed for Democrats — 52% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

Yes, Dems enjoy big leads on the generic ballot question and which party people trust to handle just about every policy issue that could help dictate an election cycle. But for my money, the fact that the Dems are actually a popular party again may be even more important.

Throughout 2005, as Iraq continued to deteriorate and the president’s drive to privatize Social Security sputtered, polls showed voters with a pox-on-both-your-houses attitude. The surveys would show the public souring on the administration and Republicans in Congress, but simultaneously show that they weren’t all that crazy about Dems either. Voters, it seemed, no longer like anyone.

To a certain extent, Dems weren’t thrilled with this dynamic, but they hardly considered it a disaster. If voters were in an anti-incumbent mood, and the Republicans are in the majority, then at least some Democratic gains seemed inevitable. A throw-the-bums-out attitude was bound to help Dems — the other side has more bums.

We are, however, well past this point now. We’re looking at a landscape in which Republicans are not only unpopular, but Dems are popular. Voters don’t just want to vote against Republicans; a growing number want to vote for Democrats.

The WaPo/ABC poll, in particular, noted that Americans, when asked which party better “represents your own personal values,” clearly prefers Dems to Republicans, 53% to 37%. Asked which party is “more concerned with the needs of people like you,” Dems lead by an almost two-to-one margin, 58% to 30%.

There’s still time for the winds to shift again, but at least for now, the tide has turned.

That, CB, is an observation that boosts my morale. Finally, the American people are starting to think that policies that benefit their economic condition now, rather than some hoped for millionaire status they could only achieve by winning the idiot tax (statey lottery), are the way to go.

Or maybe it’s just that the evident incompetence of Republican’ts at governing compared to the success of the Clintonistas has finally convinced the American People that they want the government that they ask to have to also work, and you can’t trust people who don’t want the government to even exist to make if function properly.

It’s a “Heck of a job Brownie” moment.

  • People hate to admit they made a mistake, me, you, anybody. As a result, it takes a LONG time for people to change their minds about a political choice.
    The stats you cite in this post reflect the process of many minds changing. The closer the next choice comes, the more the wheels turn.

  • In my observations, Social Security is a key dividing issue between wingnuts (most of the dead-ender 30%) and reasonable, reachable, reality-oriented Americans. With better education about SS, I think that the Dems can enhance this positive-image trend, and pound the phase-out scheme back into wingnut fantasy land.

  • Barack Obama summed up the situation with a great line on NPR this morning, which apparently he has used before but which I’ve missed. Paraphrased, he said something like “We need to have a tough and smart foreign policy, because the other side has a monopoly on tough and dumb.”

  • Thank god! Is it possible that the Right has moved so far right (with Dems in tow) that the Dems now appeal to moderates? One of my wife’s favorate sayings is “Bill Clinton was the best Republican president we ever had.” I think that is not too far off, at least on economic policy.

  • I hope the Republiscams aren’t too surprised by this turn of events. Actually I suspect they are. We’re all supposed to be too scared and stupid to notice the war, the economy, the e-mails, the other war, North Korea, the cheating, the hurricanes….

    I glanced at the Washington Post’s front page today to see if Foley was still there (gone for today from the print version all over the electronic version) but the mostly blue pie chart with a slice of red caught my eye. What really cheered me up was the insert box on the other poll: People think there’s a connection between dropping gas prices and the upcoming elections. Yes! Come on Cynicism, save the day!

  • I agree with BuzzMon.

    Bush’s push to privatize Social Security had two goals: 1) to prevent future taxes–on the richest Americans–which will be needed to pay for the baby boomer’s retirement (if not, the following generation), and 2) to convert younger workers into Republican voters by promising them stock market pie-in-the-sky. Bush’s “grand effort” failed miserably. And it failed because it made the average American feel less secure, which opened the door to the question “where the hell is Bush trying to lead us.” Thus, the American people began to give all of his policies greater scrutiny.

  • I’m suspicious of what they (the press, when we had one) used to call “atmospherics” — public liking or disliking as measured by polls. I can’t think of anything more ephemeral. The Democrats should concentrate on wresting back at least some of the power (at all levels). Then they should concentrate on achievement, in the public interest, something the GOP has all but abandoned the last six years (even reversed in many cases). Then they should concentrate on restoring a modicum of “fair and balanced” to the media. Then they should concentrate on much more than a modicum of ability in the areas of technology and science. When they get all done with those things, they might make time for looking at themselves in a mirror and maybe taking some pride in themselves.

  • “People think there’s a connection between dropping gas prices and the upcoming elections.” – TAIO

    If you believe that the Republican’ts got the Oil companies to drop the price of gasoline before the election, where do you suppose it will go after the election?

    That’s the question to ask any wingnut who crows about $2.00 a gallon gasoline.

  • I’m skeptical that the Democrats have really won public approval. I think most of the public want to have political leaders that they can like and can trust and have faith in. For a long time, Bush and the Republicans benefited from this effect: people were determined to like him and trust him no matter what evidence cropped up to the contrary. Bush and the Republicans have now lost that, and the broad middle is now rationalizing their loss of faith in and approval of the republicans by transferring unearned support to the Democrats.

    If the Democrats win heavily in November, they will be under considerable pressure to create progress on numerous fronts. The only excuse that the public will accept for not producing anything is if Bush makes a grand show of vetoing everything the Dems propose. I view high expectations as a considerable challenge, but also a great opportunity.

  • Apparently those favorability numbers aren’t exactly news, even though it was news to me. If you look at the PDF of the NYT/CBS poll they’ve got trend lines for some questions going back to the 80s in some cases. And apparently both parties have enjoyed positive net favorables for most of that time — I’m sure I have seen other I’ve seen other polls that disagree but it could be a matter of question wording.

    Anyway, it looks like in the NYT poll, going back to December of ’85, there have been only two periods when the Republicans dove into significantly net unfavorable territory — ’98-’99 and 12/05 to present. For the Democrats there was just that brief stint in ’94 – ’95. Other than that about the worst the either party has done is pull even. Who would have guessed? Maybe we’re not really as cynical about politics as we think…

    Link: http://graphics.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20061010_poll_results.pdf

    • Comments are closed.