The GOP’s “Daisy” ad

October 20, 2006

The strategy is about as subtle as a sledgehammer: Vote Republican or you might die. I know this is supposed to be the devastating ad that saves the cycle for the GOP, but I’m not at convinced the Republicans’ “Daisy” ad is as effective as they think it is.

The Republican Party will begin airing a hard-hitting ad this weekend that warns of more cataclysmic terror attacks against the U.S. homeland.

The ad portrays Osama bin Laden and quotes his threats against America dating to February 1998. “These are the stakes,” the ad concludes. “Vote November 7.”

Brian Jones, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said the ad would run on national cable beginning Sunday, but he declined to discuss specifics of the buy.

You can watch the commercial online at a variety of sites; I saw it at Outside the Beltway, which also conveniently offers a transcript for those who can’t watch clips at work. James Joyner, who is one of the few conservatives I like reading every day, calls the ad “incredibly heavyhanded,” which strikes me as a fair assessment.

But the next question is perhaps the more politically salient one: will it work? I kind of doubt it.

The ad is quite direct in its message: there are a lot of dangerous terrorists out there, and they still want to kill Americans. In this sense, it’s very much in line with the latest spot from the far-right Progress for America Voter Fund, which unveiled an ad called “They Want to Kill Us” last month.

Bear in mind, neither ad explains why Republicans are better suited to address the terrorist threat, and neither mention why they believe Democrats aren’t as capable on the issue. The message is apparently supposed to be self-evident: terrorism exists, you might die, so vote Republican.

The Political Pit Bull, a right-wing blogger with whom I agree on practically nothing, analyzed the ad and, oddly enough, came to the same conclusion I did.

Phase 1: Show terrorists.

Phase 2: ?

Phase 3: Win in November.

The ad doesn’t explain why people should vote for the GOP if they want to be safer from terrorism. It’s like RNC thinks that just the image of a jihadi walking through the woods with a rocket or a floating orb (what the hell is that anyway?) is immediately going to inspire people to vote for the person with the R next to his name. And the RNC should know better.

Even worse, this ad just reinforces the stereotype that the GOP tries to scare people into voting Republican since there’s no substance to it.

Exactly. Most political ads at least make some passing effort at persuasion. This doesn’t even go that far — it just shows you terrorists.

I’d add just one thing: it may be an inconvenient fact for the Republicans, but this isn’t 2002 and the once-strong advantage the GOP had over the Dems on the terrorism issue is gone. The most recent Post/ABC poll showed Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans on Iraq (51-38) and terrorism (47-41). Going on TV and shouting “Boo!” isn’t enough anymore for the GOP.

It seems this commercial is the Republicans’ Hail Mary pass. We’ll see if it’s effective, but I suspect the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage.

I agree and don’t really see this working. And I also agree that things have gotten so far that this ad could make them look bad. People gave Republicans a chance to fix things for five years, and all they did was try to scare us more. People can only be fooled when they want to be fooled and almost no one wants to be fooled any more.

  • Anyone read Doonesbury this week? “Fear Itself” holds forth at a press conference on its role in the upcoming campaign.

  • I’ve written at least a couple times here that the Democrats have to start attacking the Republican’ts presumed superority on fighting al Qaeda and other terrorists.

    Right Now!

    Because once we undermine in the American people’s minds the belief that the Republican’ts are better at fighting terrorism (which they are not) than the last real wall falls (values, pftt!) and the Republican’ts lose everything.

    But the Democrats have to start working the issue.

  • I’ll bet ‘Phase 2′ is more ads on “Dems want to protect terrorists’ civil rights,” or something similar. So the process is, first, scare people. Second, ‘Ds priorities are dangerously out of whack and won’t make the hard choices to protect the US.’

  • What have the Democrats learned about swiftboating?
    A strong response ad showing a sweaty George Bush and a whispering Karl Rove, a surly Dick Cheney and a dismissive Rummy with the message:

    Those who profit from your fear will not keep you safe.

  • oddly enough, seeing all that reminded me of the warnings delivered to crawford tx that were ignored, and they way the repubs have left osamma running around….and i think most americans will have similar thoughts…

  • The floating orb is obviously the eye of Sauron.

    Vote Republican or the Orcs will get you!!!

    This message brought to you by the same idiots who say Iraq is a remarkable success.

  • Well…people who are afraid of crystal balls will crap their pants. I guess they’re relying on a corresponding video tape from their buddy Osama to pad out this rather puzzling pastiche of quotes (some of them quite old).

    A few things about this ad:

    People tend to zone out during commercials, I would think using text alone is a sure fire way to make sure every one goes for a beer while this runs.

    The ticking? Annoying as hell. It did not hold my attention, it made me want to stop the ad.

    Al Quaida got suitcase nukes from Russia? Shouldn’t we be at war with them?

  • Do another version “They Want to Kill Us”

    Jan 2001: Bill Clinton leaves an antiterrorist plan for the incoming prez and National Security Advisor saying that Al Qaida is the biggest threat to US security

    July 2001: The CIA raises the warnings about OBL’s boys doing something big in the US

    Aug 2001: “Bin Laden Determined to Attack US” Memo sent to Crawford

    Dec 2001: US Special Forces teams not sent to Tora Tora where OBL was located. Instead those teams are being prepped to go to Iraq

    Jan 2003: Sixteen Words later disproved to be a big Lie about Iraq buying Niger Yellowcake.

    Since May 2003 when Mission Accomplished:
    2700 Soldiers dead, thousnands more wounded
    $200+ Billion spent
    Civil War in Iraq

    And the Republicans went along with it.

    Who is protecting America now?

  • From what I can tell talking to people who just casually follow politics (and those who don’t follow them at all) is that each and every one of them are sick and tired of political ads — damn near all of them.

    That’s why ads like the one with the bush (the link I found for it is blocked here at work — can someone help with posting a link?) and the ones running for Sebelius in Kan., are so effective — they are original, non-attack ads that don’t make you feel like you need a shower afterword to wash off the dirt.

    I’m just glad the RNC is hanging itself with ads more suitable to Orwell — the people will just wind up ignoring them.

  • All this add does is reminds people that this administration still hasn’t captured Osama “dead or alive”.

  • I assume that the people who make ads for a living know a lot more about their business than I do. Their view of human kind may be disgusting to me, but that doesn’t make it inaccurate or ineffective. Couldn’t we profitably “fight fire with fire”, say by running ads reminding voters how Saddam got his start … showing Rummy shaking hands with, and staring adoringly up to, the Iraqi dictator when he, rumsfeld, delivered the chemicals with which he, Saddam, gassed “his own people”? Maybe that ad could also feature (via Photoshop) Congressman Foley racing around in the background chasing congressional pages, along with Cunningham and others stuffing money in boxes, like the minor characters who used to run through the comics in Mad Magazine. Better than the recent efforts of Shrum & Brazile anyway.

  • Like Unholy Moses said, people are sick of political ads and rarely even pay attention to them. My reaction to the occasional message that politcal organizations leave on this blog is mostly irritation. The same as having a tv show interrupted by an ad. Political ad? What’s in the ‘fridge!

    I read an article in which Bush said he would not allow North Korea to export nuke stuff. My reaction was harrrumph, how are you going to stop them, what are you going to do, what have you done so far. Nothing.

    I thinks that’s how a lot of people will view this ad. If it registers at all.

  • Ktmnyny is correct. The first 3/4 of the quotes are from 3 or 4 years ago or more. How exactly do they think this will boost GOP votes? This plan never made any sense to me. They say we are under attack, there is a serious threat, we are targets over and over again. The next sentence goes on to tell us to keep the GOP in power to protect us. Well, if they have done nothing th 6 years to catch these terrorists why the hell shouldn’t we boot them out and try to remove the threat!

    Orwell would be astounded if he could see this.

  • These are easy ads to answer.

    Just run 25 seconds of Republicans saying tough-guy stupid things, then conclude with the caption : “Got Osama?”

    It works for the milk industry.

  • I like a combination of a couple of the ideas here.

    Use Dan’s historical time line. Parallel the Republican ad and pull out simple points. In the background use the images suggested by kali: “sweaty George Bush and a whispering Karl Rove, a surly Dick Cheney and a dismissive Rummy ..”,

    I would emphasize images of a conspiratorial Cheney and an incompetent Bush. You could even throw in a few pictures of Katrina devastation. Oh yes, and a picture of Bush with Brownie.

    The images are the most important part of the message, but they need to be backed up by the argument.

    But will that keep Republicans from voting for my Republican Consgresswoman? I don’t know.

  • I like the ideas from Dan (#10) and Shalimar (#16). Something short and brutal.

    You could even turn the GOP ad around to use against the Republicans. Show all the scary clips and quotes of OBL and come to a shot Bush saying, “I truly am not that concerned about him.”

  • brainiac – i think your ad idea is perfect. As I read about the GOP ad my thots went straight to when Bush said “i truly am not that concerned about him.” I have to think the GOP “scare the shit out of them” ad only reminds people of the failure to capture OBL these past 5 yrs. makes me wonder what focus group thot this was a good idea?

  • All fear, all the time. If Osama didn’t exist, these guys would have created him. Wait a minute, maybe…

  • “If Osama didn’t exist, these guys would have created him.” – beep52

    Yes, Osama bin Laden was “created” by the Reagan administration to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan.

    You see, this is what happens when you don’t clean up after yourself when the project is done. The tools turn around and bite you.

  • This ad tells me that the GOP has sided with the terrorists. Terrorists want to scare the crap out of others. It is clear the GOP wishes to use the terrorists and scare the crap out of US voters. Just another form of terror. The GOP really has turned into the enemy.

  • i’m surprised the republicans don’t go all the way and say, unless you want US to kill you, vote republican.

  • @ #24

    That’s the next step. Nov 6th, every one will wake up and find a horse’s head beside them. It’ll be stamped with the Eye Of Mordor – No, sorry, I’m getting my loony Rethuglican plot lines confused.

  • “Nov 6th, every one will wake up and find a horse’s head beside them. It’ll be stamped with the Eye Of Mordor” – TAIO

    I was just re-reading ‘The Return of the King’ after… well, years.

    Branding the Eye on the heads of the dead defenders of Oslithgarth (sp) is exactly what the Witchking of Angmar did. Admitedly, he just catapulted them over the walls (and Gondorian propaganda) rather than sneak them into people’s beds, but the effect was the same.

  • They’re only dropping $20k on this ad, on national cable. How many people will see it? Not as many as saw it on the Drudge Report, probably.

  • Doesn’t any ad showing Osama prove the Republican’s incompetence ?

    So often The Republicans seem to be pretending that they haven’t been the party in power for the last six years. And the MSM goes right along with this inconsistency – talking up the Republican talking points in contradiction to reality.

  • Bin Laden LOVES the GOP, and the GOP LOVES bin Laden………….

    ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK……..

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