Both parties generally want to expand their base of support by appealing to independent voters, but this year, with just two weeks to go before Election Day, it’s not even close — independents are backing Dems in huge numbers.
Two weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on Iraq and other major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. […]
Independents are poised to play a pivotal role in next month’s elections because Democrats and Republicans are basically united behind candidates of their own parties. Ninety-five percent of Democrats said they will support Democratic candidates for the House, while slightly fewer Republicans, 88 percent, said they plan to vote for their party’s candidates.
The independent voters surveyed said they plan to support Democratic candidates over Republicans by roughly 2 to 1 — 59 percent to 31 percent — the largest margin in any Post-ABC News poll this year. Forty-five percent said it would be good if Democrats recaptured the House majority, while 10 percent said it would not be. The rest said it would not matter.
Independents have effectively given up on the GOP’s agenda altogether — by a 2 to 1 margin they believe the war in Iraq is not worth fighting, and by a 3 to 1 margin, they disapprove of Congress’ job performance and the direction of the country. Moreover, these same voters place the blame for the nation’s problems squarely on the Bush White House and congressional Republicans. Independents also trust Dems over the GOP to address terrorism by 14 points.
It’s worth noting, of course, that independents appear to be moving towards Dems almost by default — they’re voting against the GOP. Nevertheless, it highlights why the right is in such a panic — all the Republicans have left is a far-right base, and even the base isn’t exactly thrilled.
Overall, the political climate that bottomed out for the GOP when Mark Foley hit the front page has leveled off a bit, but it’s still bleak.
Among the electorate as a whole, the poll highlighted how the political climate continues to favor Democrats. President Bush’s approval rating among all Americans stood at 37 percent. Two weeks ago he was at 39 percent, and in September he was at 42 percent. By more than 2 to 1, Americans disapprove of the way Congress has been doing its job.
The generic vote for the House — a question that asks people which party they favor in their district but that does not match actual candidates against one another — remained strongly in the Democrats’ favor, 54 percent to 41 percent.
These national numbers do not translate directly into predictions of whether Democrats will gain the 15 House seats or six Senate seats they need to take control of those chambers. But an analysis of the findings sheds light on why Republicans are now deeply worried about losing their House majority and why the Senate is in play as well.
The poll showed that Democrats not only have a significant advantage in blue states — those won in the 2004 presidential race by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) — but also have a narrow advantage in Bush-backing red states, which helps to explain why the number of GOP-held seats that appear competitive has increased recently.
It all comes down to Iraq. A growing plurality said the war is as the single most important issue determining their vote in November, and the vast majority of them are backing Dems.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll, meanwhile, notes similar results while highlighting an important development: the Dem strategy of nationalizing the election cycle has largely been a success.
Two weeks before Election Day, voters are more focused on national issues than in any previous congressional election, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they express unprecedented pessimism on the war in Iraq and downbeat attitudes about the economy. […]
For months, Rep. Tom Reynolds, head of the National Republican Congressional Committee and who himself is in a tough race, has insisted that GOP candidates would survive a difficult political landscape because House elections traditionally turn on local issues, not national ones.
However, in the new poll, 43% of likely voters say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote; 24% say local or state issues. That’s the first overwhelming edge for national issues since the question was first asked in a Times Mirror poll in 1994.
The generic ballot question has improved slightly for the GOP since Foley dominated the public’s attention — Dems now enjoy a 13-point lead, 54% to 41%. Still, that’s more than the 12-point advantage Republicans held at this point in 1994.
Consider this your morale boost for the day.