Wednesday’s political round-up

October 25, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* The LA Times conducted a series of Senate polls in the five most competitive states, and Dems lead in three of the five. In Missouri, Sen. Jim Talent (R) leads Claire McCaskill (D) 48% to 45%; in New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leads state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) 45% to 41%; in Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Mike DeWine (R) 47% to 39%; in Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) leads Rep. Harold Ford (D) 49% to 44%; and in Virginia, Jim Webb (D) leads Sen. George Allen (R) 47% to 44%.

* In Florida’s Senate race, many of us expected a blow out, but few expected it to be this one-sided. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D) trouncing Rep. Katherine Harris (R) by better than a two-to-one margin, 64% to 29%. The 35-point lead is even bigger than the 28-point lead Nelson enjoyed a few weeks ago.

* Arizona’s Senate race is getting surprisingly competitive with just two weeks to go. A new poll from Arizona State University and KAET shows Sen. Jon Kyl (R) leading Democratic challenger Jim Pederson, by just six points, 47% to 41%. It’s the closest the race has been all year. Libertarian Richard Mack garnered 3% support.

* In Massachusetts, a new 7News-Suffolk University poll shows Deval Patrick increasing his earlier leads over Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) and is now up by 27 points, 53% to 26%. The key to Patrick’s latest surge is independent voters abandoning Healey in droves.

* And in Michigan, Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), who had struggled in polls from the spring and summer, seems to have the momentum when it counts. A new Rasmussen poll shows the incumbent leading Amway heir Dick DeVos (R), 53% to 42%. It is Granholm’s largest lead to date, and the first time she’s cracked the 50% mark all year.

CB–You need to fix the NJ results. Webb may be willing to accept a lead in NJ but those constituents are unlikely to really give him one. 🙂

  • To follow up on the LA Times poll, if I’m counting correctly, it appears that Democrats lead in only two races (NJ and Ohio), not three. The Republican candidate leads in Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee, correct?

  • Dems have a slight lead in NJ and lead in Montana and Rhode Island too.
    Polls cited in My DD:
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) 47.4%–41.6% Chafee (R)
    Montana: Tester (D) 47.4%–42.0% Burns (R)

  • CB, I think that poll shows Webb leading in Virginia. The first I’ve seen where he is.

    And happily, I’ve seen his television ads. Not what I’d have put up, but something. I’ve yet to see the Mark Warner ad, but that is good. Introduce yourself Mr. Webb so the people of Virginia can accept voting for you.

  • CB–You need to fix…

    Wow, I mis-typed a lot of this one, including the candidates in New Jersey and the results in Virginia. I’ve corrected it now; sorry for the mix-up.

  • I have trouble seeing how we win in MO, TN, or VA, which means the Senate stays Evil. Maybe next cycle we’ll have the resources on the ground to get a last-minute edge, but unless something breaks in these last 13 days, I think we top out at 49.

  • Thanks CB, I wanted to get my daily morale boost from the Webb numbers and now I can 😉

    Yah Jim! Keep up the momentum. Pound that racist tobacco-juice spitting-at-women’s-feet son-of-bitch (yes, I’m talking about his French-Tunisan mother who taught him Macaca) cowboy-image-wanabee into the red clay of Old Virginy.

  • I do so look forward to seeing Harris’ face spackle shatter like glass when she loses. It will be partial revenge for her handing the country over to the flying monkey.

    OT: I think Bob Hostetller (R-Ind 8th District) might be the first person to specifically raise the specter of the Homosexual Agenda this campaign cycle: http://tinyurl.com/v5yk7. I hope he keeps his slimy ass out of Bloomington. Because, I’m a peace loving, violence shunning sissy pants Democrat so I can’t approve of anything that would result in this piece of dreck being found face down in a pool of his own blood.

  • And in another part of Indiana, “Millionaire Mike” Sodrel (as Baron Hill’s commercials have tagged him) might just be scrapping the bottom of the barrel in his southern Indiana Congressional contest.

    Today, he is hosting a fundraiser with Laura Bush with Ol’ Dubya himself stopping in sometime next week (I think, but don’t know the date specifically). When you resort to having the President campaign for you (and Mike even plans to be on the same platform with Bush at the SAME time…should be a lovely picture for a Democratic commercial), you know the desperation level must be getting up there.

    With any luck, Sodrel can go back to his trucking business and get the hell out of Indiana (and national) politics! If only we could say the same for G.W….

    [To “The answer is orange,” maybe Sodrel and Hostettler could go sulk in peace together. Birds of a feather slink away together, maybe?]

  • I don’t know about the LATimes poll about the race in VA; it doesn’t “smell” right. Only last week, Webb was 3-4 points behind Allen, according to 3 polls (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and Zogby)… Suddenly, he’s 3 points ahead? That’s a surge of at least 6 points within a week, yet he’s not been that visible, ad-wise (he *is* campaigning very hard, though; criss-crossing the state and talking to a lot of people).

    So, I refuse to do a happy dance *quite yet*. If more polls show up with similiar (or better ) results, maybe.

  • LIbra,

    Webb’s ads have been starting to show up here in Northern Virginia. The swing however is probably a lot smaller if you remember that both polls probably have a 3 point margin of error.

    But it’s positive news, and I hope it demonstrates momentum because it will cause Allen to unravel even more, and make more mistakes for all to see.

  • Please ,please, please let Webb win in Virginia! Unfortunately my only Republican child lives in Virginia.. I keep hoping he will see the light..on the other hand I keep wondering if they switched kids in the hospital.. How can a child of mine be a Republican?

    One thing I need to mention though, is that some of the comments are getting too vitriolic…is that a word?…we need to keep our heads, influence anyone we can but not get as nasty as those “others” .

  • But it’s positive news, and I hope it demonstrates momentum — Lance, @ #13

    Well, there’s been another poll out since then — Survey USA — and it confirms my suspicion about the LATimes one being either an outlier or a typo; Allen’s up by 3 points again. Since nothing earth-shaking has happened to change people’s POV within the past week, I think the “pessimistic” polls are more likely to be accurate. So keep working — write a LTE, reach out and touch someone (or several) by phone, distribute Webb lit door-to-door… There are still 2 weekends left to change the “drift” of the discourse 🙂

    “I keep wondering if they switched kids in the hospital.. How can a child of mine be a Republican?” — Joan, @14

    Me, I’m a “nurture” rather than “nature” gal, so I wonder… Did you discuss politics with him when he was small? Did you tell him wonderful stories of Robin Hood and FDR? I will *never, ever* forget my Mother’s sneer (before she got totally disenchanted with the communist party) at some of the leadership: “radish communists” she called them — red on the outside, white on the inside. That was 50 yrs ago, when I was barely 7yrs old, but I was beginning to understand what she was talking about even then (of course, I was taught at 5 not to mention to strangers that we listened to BBC and Voice of America and Radio Free Europe at night, when the blocking was less). One reaps as one sows…

    One thing I need to mention though, is that some of the comments are getting too vitriolic…is that a word?…we need to keep our heads, influence anyone we can but not get as nasty as those “others” — Joan @14 again

    Sweetie… “Vitriolic” *is* the word but I’d dispute the “too” that you’ve paired with it 🙂

    I’ve had to spend lotsa dollars to buy a gadget called “mouth guard” (which I think of as “my muzzle”) a few months before the Chimperor led us into the Iraq quagmire, because I was grinding my teeth so much in my sleep, the dentist thought I was going to lose them all. And the continuous anxiety since — more than 3 yrs and countin’ — has made billious craters on my stomach… *NO* amount of vitriol is enough to pour out on the vicious circle stinking up the Oval Office. “Mild as milk and twice as bland” attitude won’t *begin* to cure what ails me… I welcome the occasional “vent” — foul language et al — because it lets me know I’m not alone.

    Either get used to it, or try finding a blog that’s more to your taste. I find this one *exceptionally* well balanced and un-shrill — from CB, through all the commenters (even including the trolls )

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