I noticed this morning that the ultraconservative Washington Times was boasting that the GOP won three of this year’s four gubernatorial races, which the paper suggests puts the Republicans in a commanding position going into 2004.
As a factual matter, the GOP did, of course, win three gubernatorial races — Kentucky, Mississippi, and the California “recall” election. Dems meanwhile, won in Louisiana. But while the Republican talking points emphasize the number of GOP victories, I think the more important trend is one of anti-incumbency.
In fact, in each of this year’s four gubernatorial races, the party that was in power going into Election Day lost. There were sitting Dem governors in Kentucky, Mississippi, and California, and Republican candidates won in these states. There was a sitting Republican governor in Louisiana, and a Dem won on Election Day.
What does all of this tell us? On one hand, not much. Each of these races were hard-fought campaigns with their own issues and dynamics. Taken collectively, they may tell us virtually nothing about potential trends in national politics.
On the other hand, I prefer the anti-incumbency theme (because it falls nicely within my “wishful thinking” approach). Voters tend to vote against the incumbent party when they’re feeling uncertainty and anxiety. In other words, they’re not happy with the status quo, so they vote against it. And to be sure, in the last few months, there’s been plenty to cause voters to feel anxious about the immediate future.
With this in mind, this year’s results may not be good news for the GOP after all. If voters are in an anti-incumbent mood, Republicans might be in trouble. They’re the ones who control the White House, the House, the Senate, and the majority of U.S. governorships.