Thursday’s political round-up

November 2, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* In Missouri, the nation’s closest Senate race remains frustratingly unpredictable. A new Rasmussen poll, released this morning, shows state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) leading incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R), 47% to 46%. When leaners are added into the mix for the current poll, McCaskill still leads by a point, 48% to 47%. A week ago, Talent led by two. Two weeks before that, McCaskill led by one.

* Speaking of competitive Senate races, Rasmussen also has a new poll in Tennessee, where Bob Corker (R) now leads Rep. Harold Ford (D), 48% to 47%. With leaners added, Corker’s edge widens slightly to 49% to 47%. Poll respondents were asked who they thought would win the race, regardless of who they prefer — Corker led Ford, 50% to 38%.

* Illinois’ gubernatorial race appeared to be no longer competitive, but a new Mason-Dixon poll suggests the contest is still quite close. The poll now shows incumbent Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) ahead of Judy Baar Topinka (R) by just four points, 44% to 40%. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is third with 7% support.

* New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race hasn’t been on anyone’s radar screen lately, and there’s a very good reason for that. A new WMUR-TV poll shows Gov. John Lynch (D) ahead of Republican challenger Jim Coburn, 71% to 18%.

* Reuters/Zogby released new poll results this morning for 10 of the most closely watched Senate races in the county. It’s a little long, so here’s a summary: Lieberman (I) is +12 in Connecticut, Cardin (D) is +5 in Maryland, McCaskill (D) is +3 in Missouri, Tester (D) is +1 in Montana, Menendez (D) is +12 in New Jersey, Brown (D) is +7 in Ohio, Casey (D) is +8 in Pennsylvania, Whitehouse (D) is +14 in Rhode Island, Corker (R) is +10 in Tennessee, and Webb is +1 in Virginia.

I don’t trust Zogby very much, but if all of his polling holds, Dems take the Senate 50-49 (remaining seat goes to the “Connecticut for Lieberman Party”)

  • In Illinois, I’m guessing some of those 7% of people will see this poll (and I’m assuming if they’re polling for a Green, they are savvy) and vote for the lesser of the two evils from the other parties.

    Rod will win, but by narrow margins an incumbent should be frightened of. I think it’ll look more like 51% for Rod, 46% for Judy, and 3% for Whitney and others.

    Of course, maybe I’ll be surprised and Tim Nieukirk will win.

    http://www.myspace.com/getnieuked

  • I just wish Ricky “Man on Dog” Santorum was going to lose by more. A stake in the heart of the Republican’t Leadership.

  • It’ll be interested to see if upcoming campaign appearances by Bush for Talent, and Obama for McCaskill, affect the numbers in the Missouri race. Although both are holding their events among their base.

    The Bush stop tomorrow is in the southern, insanely red part of the state (and I can say that because I lived there for 6 years). Bush could eat a baby while punching an old lady in face while there and those people will still vote Republican. It may, however, give the folks further north a sour taste and turn them to McCaskill.

    The Obama stop is on Sunday is in St. Louis (solidly blue) and should help foment support in the African American community for her. To be honest, I really don’t see a negative since he’s so dynamic and has been getting so much positive press lately.

    We’ll have to see if the numbers on Monday have moved any, but this while Missouri campaign is driving me nuckin’ futs.

  • Oh, and how in the hell can Webb only be +1 in Virginia with all the crap Allen has done?

    That really says a lot about the commonwealth … and none of it good.

  • Tester (D) is +1 in Montana, Menendez (D) is +12 in New Jersey,

    Can this be right? Menendez +12 is such an outlier given all the other polls. And how does Burns get within 1 point of Tester? Has Tester gone silent on the airwaves?

  • “That really says a lot about the commonwealth … and none of it good.” – Unholy

    I know, I know. But do you have to point that out?

    With luck the Republican’ts will just be staying home in disgust with George F. and George W.

  • Lance–
    Just thought maybe someone had an answer to why.

    Although, I was going to say that they should change their slogan to “Virginia is for Idiots” but thought it may be over the line.

    🙂

  • I don’t trust Zogby very much, but if all of his polling holds, Dems take the Senate 50-49 (remaining seat goes to the “Connecticut for Lieberman Party”)

    Better hope Joe doesn’t swing righty next season!

  • JRS Jr.,

    Better hope Joe doesn’t swing righty next season!

    You keep hoping for this. Care to lay a wager on it? I’ll gladly ask Mr. Carpetbagger to hold our respective wagers.

  • Better hope Joe doesn’t swing righty next season!

    Good riddance to bad rubbish if he does. He’s cancer.

  • No wager, unless the GOP gives Joe everything (and more) the Dems do, I want him to stick with the Dems for the sake of the state’s well being.

  • No wager, unless the GOP gives Joe everything (and more) the Dems do, I want him to stick with the Dems for the sake of the state’s well being.

    I can hear the following phrase ring louder and louder every day… “Oh we’re sooo sorry, Joe come back, PLEEEASE!”

    You’re as opportunistic and self-centered as Lieberman.

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