Night-owl open thread

November 7, 2006

Well, that’s about it for me. I’ll be back in the early morning, answering the age-old question, “How coherent can political analysis be on a few hours sleep?”

At this point, the House looks excellent, with Dems poised to have a solid majority in January.

The Senate is still very much up for grabs, with Missouri and Tennessee close, and Virginia headed for a run-off. Don’t forget to watch Montana.

The governor’s races look terrific, with Dems poised to go +7 for the cycle.

Consider this an overnight open thread for you to update late results, savor the moment, gloat a little, whatever strikes your fancy.

Tomorrow’s posting schedule should be fairly normal, with plenty of team coverage of the elections, the results, and what it all means.

What great news to come back to.

  • Here in Dallas Texas there has apparently been a HUGE wave of Dallas county judges’ races which are switching from R to D. 24 of 24 races, all of the ones which were contested by Dems. (there are about 18 R judges running unopposed)

    Even here, the wave has hit the Republicrooks very very hard.

  • I’m gonna be soooo hungover tomorrow.

    I’ve had four beers. There was a time I could pound a 12-pack and barely even notice it.

    I’m so freakin’ old.

    On a political note, with 56% reporting, McCaskill is down by 5% now, with KC and St. Louis still waiting to be complete.

    I’m gonna have to crash soon, so probably won’t know anything until tomorrow.

  • Senate looks a bit disappointing so far, but I’m happy about the House. I’m looking forward to Speaker Nancy doing a woman’s job and mopping the floor with the Rep-rags.

    I still want to wring Ms Parker’s “Independent Green” neck; without her in the equation, Webb would have been in with no run-offs or recounts, despite all the intimidation/misleading info/annoyance calls generated by Allen in the past week. Be nice if we could *jail* Allen before any run-off…

    TAWO… I like that sig, too 🙂

    And let’s hope that 2+5 does equal 7

  • CB, thanks. The past two years would have been unbearable without you and all of the quality commenters you have attracted. Tomorrow we begin anew.

  • A couple of things from National Journal

    FNC’s Baier, quoting WH press sec. Tony Snow about the Dems regaining control of the House: “The White House believes there are interesting opportunities here.” Also according to Baier, the WH believes “there’s still hope” that the Senate will remain in GOP hands

    And this.

    From WH spokesperson Emily Lawrimore: “Karl has informed the president that they’ve lost the majority in the House. He’s obviously disappointed, but he’s eager to work with Congress on his priorities and issues important to Americans.” The president called NRCC chair Tom Reynolds tonight, but that was his only call. He’s not talked to Hastert or Pelosi. He’ll make those calls in the a.m.

  • Here is my (hopefully not premature) gloat: I’m really looking forward to the whining and mewling from the neo-con pundits later today.

    ~Waaah! Nancy Pelosi’s gonna make us turn gay and get abortions every week.

    ~Boo-hoo, Osama bin Laden’s going to kill us in our beds!

    ~It’s all a liberal media plot I tell ya!

    If anyone wants to try to predict who (among nationally known hacks) will produce the most blatant attempt to spin anything less than total Republicon domination into a sign of the end times, I’ve got an almost new copy of State of Denial I’d be willing to let go.

    tAwO

    I will not however, gloat in front of my neighbors. ReThugs have feelings too. Or am I thinking of cockroaches? I get the two confused.

    Math is really bloody hard after midnight.

  • The late numbers in Virginia look like they’re all coming from Richmond, which would lean well in favor of Webb. I’m seeing a number now that puts him up by about 2,500 votes, with 26 precincts left to report. If those all lean for Webb, he could squeak past that one-half percent cutoff for an automatic recount, and place Felix on the ropes.

    I’m not hopeful for Tennessee; Missouri could still go Dem, and the early numbers look promising for Montana. So—that magic “6” is still in reach for a Dem-controlled Senate.

    Any-hoo, I’m off. Tomorrow (which is now today) comes early….

  • I am here for the long haul….will keep hope alive for McCaskill and webb

    Webb is up 3000 votes with 9 precincts left and 99 percent of votes to b e counted

    there are also provisional ballots in VA race

    fingers crossed

    Allen on tv now…thanks god…no clapping…thanks his wife (hmmmm)….thanks extended family….using his best southern drawlllll….

    be back later

  • Re Webb-Allen, the cut off is 1%, not one-half.

    BUT:

    It has happened that races simply can’t be settled, or settled early enough. There was a case in New hampshire in the 70s where they never did settle it and called someone out of retirement to take the seat, I believe.

    If we win Montana and one of the other two (McCaskill looks good, Ford not so good) and the seat is vacant, the vote is 50-49 and Cheney can’t break a non-existent tie.

  • Birds. Home. Roost.

    To really savour the moment, switch to Fox News. It looks like a state funeral. And if you didn’t watch CNN, you missed that noxious blowhard — Bill “I’m Damn Near God” Bennett — trying to slough off an obvious massacre. (It was obvious that James Carville and Bennett are not close friends.)

    Not a dry eye in the house.

  • Allen states that votes will be counted ALL NITE long into tomorrrow

    makes sense since provisional still left and its too close to call….we may all wake up and the senate still would hang in the balance….

    from unofficial results at 12:38

    Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)
    Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,323,715 Voter Turnout:
    Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
    J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
    G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%

    CNN JUST CALLED Tennesse for Corker (no surprise there)

    MT looking good, Missouri looks okay still have St Louis, and VA is just too close (definately going to recount…here we go again)

    WOW

    MCCaskill just TOOK LEAD 48% to 48%
    she has 794,356 talent 793,896
    Wow she closed the gap

    go Claire go

    be back

  • Now that the Dems are in power again, it will be nice to see the press return to the kind of muckraking they perfected during the Clinton years.

    Shills, not suckups.

  • no, in va the state-funded recount kicks in at .5%, that is, under 11K votes. but msnbc is reporting that 33K votes in fairfax co remain uncounted, and that is pure sweet webb territory. i can’t imagine anyone wouldn’t fund a recount themselves, but it’s virtually impossible to make the up the distance allen will have to.

    so if dad has gone to sleep, let’s discuss: how will bush react?

    (1) compromise with dem congress (doubtful)
    (2) ignore the congress entirely (he’s the decider)
    (3) dissolve congress

  • MSNBC is reporting that there are 30K uncounted ballots in Fairfax county VA which is Webb territory. BTW, Keith Olbermann is sitting at the anchor desk with tweety on MSNBC.

  • I am so happy — GW go to hell! The best part of all this, when I get the next nasty Dem/liberal/Clinton/etc email from someone will I have an answer for them!

  • TPM has a link up to a Reuter’s story on Bush’s reaction. Not much indication that he will actually compromise.

    “Now, one of the things is both parties have got a lot work to do,” Snow said. “The president has got a very active agenda for the next two years and you’re going to need both parties. There has to be a calculated decision by the Democrats.”

    That sounds like he saying the Democrats will expected to cooperate in enacting the BushCo agenda. FAT CHANCE!

  • Thank you Carpetbagger for helping me get through the last two (six) years. Reading your posts kept giving me hope. Democracy is a wonderful thing.

  • CB and all the regulars…let me add my thanks for all these months
    of info that sometimes couldn’t be found anywhere else. This comes
    from all us minions that read, but don’t generally post.

  • Here they are, the lyrics to “Happy Days Are Here Again”. Private message to old time San Francisco liberals: if he’s still around anywhere, Phil Burton must be smiling on Nancy Pelosi’s monumental victory tonight. I’ve had way too much wine (no, that’s impossible) … Happy Days, fellow Carpetbaggers! Now, let’s gear up to kick the Bush Crime Family’s butt!!

    So long sad times
    Go long bad times
    We are rid of you at last

    Howdy gay times
    Cloudy gray times
    You are now a thing of the past

    Happy days are here again
    The skies above are clear again
    So let’s sing a song of cheer again
    Happy days are here again

    Altogether shout it now
    There’s no one
    Who can doubt it now
    So let’s tell the world about it now
    Happy days are here again

    Your cares and troubles are gone
    There’ll be no more from now on
    From now on …

    Happy days are here again
    The skies above are clear again
    So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again

    Happy times
    Happy nights
    Happy days
    Are here again!

  • Looks like Karl’s “the math” was WRONG!

    And Mike McGag-it (McGavic) just lost Big to Maria Cantwell here in WA.
    Go Dems!!!

  • 10+10 does not equal 20 it seems, and so my last message had gone into the black hole. Again. This time, the puzzle is: 0+7…

    At 01:21, with 99.47% of reports in, Webb is a teeny-tad ahead. Can’t do the math, but it’s: 49.43 for Webb and 49.36 for Allen.

    I think I’ll stay up long enough to see this one through, at least on the straight count (who knows what’ll happen on absentees and provisionals; those won’t get resolved any time soon); it’s not as if I were a useful member of the working community, plagued by a morning alarm-clock call… And I’ve defrosted nicely (with the help of some white wine) from my 3hr stint at the poll, shilling for Webb (40deg F and pissin’ down rain. No Allen supporters. Wimps )

  • OK, can one of you other night-owl election junkies explain something to me? I have about five different tabs opened in Firefox that I keep refreshing. Drudge has consistently had VA Senate results that are slightly different from what I’m seeing on CNN and the other sites. I know, I know, insert joke here, but the discrepancies haven’t necessarily favored one party or the other. For example, as of 1:48 a.m., CNN has been stuck for a long time on Webb 1.143M to Allen 1.141M. Drudge, meanwhile, has seemingly updated numbers: Webb 1.152M to 1.151M. What gives? Aren’t they all pulling from the same results?

    UPDATE: Official VA site (http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm#142) is showing Webb up 1.162M to 1.157M, so that’s very encouraging. I still see this going to a recount, but I also don’t see a recount changing the results. My guess is whoever finishes with the most votes once all the precincts report will end up winning.

  • http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2006_11_01_digbysblog_archive.html#116293756318874199

    Digby was right, they are already taking their latest talking points out for a spin. (Zing!) The GOP and the right-wing media aren’t going to take this gracefully, not for a moment. There will be no concessions by them to the “will of the voters” or anything so peacefully democratic like that. They’re going to come out South American style, full of charges of Dem election tampering. And, even though we’ve been complaining about GOP tampering since 2000, that’s what is going to be topping the headlines. First it’s Mehlman and Snow, then it’s Rush and various talking heads on FoxNews and right-wing radio, then it’s “Dems Win Big Amid Allegations of Fraud” on the cover of all the mainstream papers in the morning.

    Sickening. Don’t count on humility, don’t expect them to concede anything.

  • Hey, I’m not seeing this on any websites, but Claire McCaskill just delivered a victory speech on C-SPAN, and apparently Talent is about to concede.

    UPDATE: Yep, he’s conceding. So it’s down to VA/MT. I’m feeling optimistic, which I wouldn’t have said a few hours ago.

  • ” And they say that if you go to his grave and speak loud and clear, ‘Dan’l Webster —– Dan’l Webster!’ the ground’ll begin to shiver and the trees begin to shake. And after a while you’ll hear a deep voice saying, ‘Neighbor, how stands the Union?’ Then you better answer the Union stands as she stood, rock-bottomed and copper-sheathed, one and indivisible … ”

    – Stephen Vincent Benet, “The Devil and Daniel Webster”
    http://www.gckschools.com/vhs/eng3/fall/romantic/danwebread.htm

  • Latest official VA results:

    Webb 1.167M
    Allen 1.159M

    Only counties left are Fairfax City, Loudoun and Isle of Wight, all of which are currently pro-Webb. So it looks like he’ll finish ahead, but will have a hard time surpassing the recount threshhold, whether it’s 0.5% or 1%.

  • The House!

    And the Senate!

    Talent concedes to MacCaskill! Burns concedes to Tester! neo-Confederate traitor Allen trips over his own tongue!

    Richard Pombo, who never met an endangered species he wouldn’t barbecue, whose seat was safe last week, goes down 52-48!

    John Sweeney, the world’s oldest Fraternity Freddie, “shut ‘er down Sweeney” from the stolen election in Florida, down 53-47!

    Clay Shaw down 54-46!

    Nick Lampson in Hot Tub Tommie’s seat!

    These far right halfwits are about to find out how bad bad is, when they discover the real meaning of “San Francisco Liberal” when they go against Speaker Pelosi.

    And all the “patriots” who dissed Majority Leader Murtha are going to find out what happens when you cross a Marine.

    “The only ‘good Republicans’ are pushing up daisies.”

    Celebrate today and Wednesday.

    Back to the trenches on Thursday – we didn’t defeat fascism in our lifetime as our forebears did in 1945, we only spiked their guns.

    803 days to go.

  • Tony Snow about the Dems regaining control of the House: “The White House believes there are interesting opportunities here.” — rege, @6

    True, especially if one’s into SM… I’m all for going squirrelly, cracking their nuts and seeing how they like it.

    Zorro ftCG; stick with the vainteractive; it seems to be most immediate, as well as most comprehensive (for VA). Certainly, it’s been giving me a new ulcer, every 2 minutes, for the past 3-4 hrs 🙂

    And let’s see if the new puzzle — 8+9 will let me post… I’ll try 17…

  • Seriously? Pombo went down? Awesome! That was one of the races I was watching that I thought no one else was. (My mother lives in or near his district, not sure which.)

    Any word from WA-08? I’m hearing that it is still likely GOP.

    And the senate, I’m still a little confused over. Dems need to pick up 6 to get a majority, correct? We have already picked up MO, OH, PA, and RI. VA and MT are still toss-ups, and all other races are decided? Is TN decided? What news from Montana? I’ve heard nothing so far.

  • Rian —

    TN is over. Ford conceded a few hours ago. He put up a good fight, but came up a little short. I think we haven’t heard the last of him.

    Latest results from MT: Tester up 149K to 142K (50% to 48%) with 74% of precincts reporting. Still not decided, but looking good.

  • Sweet. Josh Marshall has a very nice table of incoming results, it looks like it’s being kept updated constantly. Watch WA-08, few results are in and the GOP lead is narrow. I’m keeping my fingers crossed!

    http://www.tpmcafe.com/race/overview

    Oh, and even better, Pombo was my mother’s rep. Not for much longer, from the looks of it! He’s losing 48 to 52 with 73% reporting.

  • Hurrah! Its morning where I’m reading this, and this is better than Christmas morning. Great news, that will be watched by other nations…

  • When I started out Tuesday, out of all my representatives; city, county, state, and federal, I only had two that were Democratic. A city councilperson and the county commissioner (the county commisioner also won his reelection bid). Tonight I have a Democratic state representative and better yet a Democratic Senator, Claire McCaskill.

    Tonight, for the first time in a long time, I think I’ll have a little peace of mind before I hit the pillow.

  • Damn thing ate my post! I spent a long time writing that!

    I was going to announce my incredible excitement about looking forward to the 2008 senate races, where the GOP has 21 seats up for grabs and the Dems have only 12. I went so far to predict that the Dems will take Colorado, Minnesota, and, yes, even Texas. Allard (CO) and Cornyn (TX) are very unpopular and MN is still a pretty blue state.

    But having my first post on the topic defeated my elation.

    Info on the 2008 races was found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections%2C_2008

    And much of that appears to be written by this blogger here: http://senate2008.blogspot.com/

    Also, SurveyUSA has some fairly recent popularity data which is helpful information, even if one wants to take guesses this early: http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval061024State.htm

  • Montana is clearly won by the Democrats, I think.

    At this point control of the senate seems to rest with two factors – whether Lieberman votes with the Dems for President Pro Tempore and setting the agenda, and what happens in Virginia, including whether Allen concedes or a recount is enacted, and the results of the recount and the revelations of the entire process. I suppose even if the Dems do win Virginia Lieberman could still jump ship and cause a tie, allowing Cheney to vote in favor of the GOP. So Dems still need both on their side, Lieberman and Virginia. Let’s hope that Lieberman remains a Democrat like he says and doesn’t become beholden to all those general campaign donations he likely recieved from the GOP.

    In either case, it’s going to be a very tight senate for the next two years. It’s going to require the Dems running a very tight ship, not something they’ve been known for. Dems break ranks a hell of a lot more than Republicans, which doesn’t bode well for us, but at least if we do get to set the agenda the damage will be minimal.

    It only takes a simple majority of the House to impeach, but it takes 2/3 of the Senate to convict. 🙁

  • Ok, so I think I was wrong, the Senate isn’t quite like the House. The majority leader generally gets to set the agenda, not the President Pro Tempore. Which means the Dems must claim a majority. What does it take to do this? If it ends up 49 Dems, 49 GOP, and 2 Indys, does it require both Indys to caucus with the Dems?

  • Needless to say, the Dem leadership is rolling out the red carpet to give Joe anything he wants these next two years, representing a huge win for us CT folk.

  • Quack! Thump!
    Quack! Thump!
    Quack! Thump!

    (lame duck)

    A hint for those of you who, like me, are math challenged: When you have finished composing, highlight and copy your post before answering the question. That way if you’ll still have your opus if you fail the challenge.

  • Little darlin’
    It’s been long, cold, lonely winter.
    Little darlin’
    It seems like years since it’s been clear.
    Here comes the sun,
    Here comes the sun,
    And I say,
    It’s all right!

  • We got the brooms out here in Iowa to do our part for wave. For the first time since the year before I was born, Iowa will have a Dem Gov plus both chambers of the statehouse. We kept IA-3, which the R’s had targeted, and picked up IA-2 (which was nice) and, somewhat bittersweet, picked up IA-1, beating Jim Leach, one of the most liberal and most gentlemanly Republican congressmen. Alas, Steve “I love McCarthy!” King still won. Guess you really can’t have everything.

    Great work all.

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