As recently as January, public opinion research showed that most Iraqis wanted U.S. troops to remain in the country until security conditions improved. Now, they just want us out.
Eight out of ten Shias in Baghdad (80%) say they want foreign forces to leave within a year (72% of Shias in the rest of the country), according to a poll conducted by World Public Opinion in September. None of the Shias polled in Baghdad want U.S.-led troops to be reduced only “as the security situation improves,” a sharp decline from January, when 57 percent of the Shias polled by WPO in the capital city preferred an open-ended U.S presence.
This brings Baghdad Shias in line with the rest of the country. Seven out of ten Iraqis overall — including both the Shia majority (74%) and the Sunni minority (91%) — say they want the United States to leave within a year.
Iraqis and Americans are increasingly on the same page. Most of the public in the United States believes U.S. forces should withdraw; most of the public in Iraq believe the same thing. Most Americans believe security conditions in Iraq could improve if we redeployed; most Iraqis believe the same thing.
Here’s a crazy thought: how about the Bush administration give the people (in both countries) what they want?
Kevin Drum summarized the poll results nicely.
PIPA has released a new poll of Iraqi attitudes toward the U.S. occupation, and the takeaway is very, very clear: they want us to leave. 74% of Shiites and 91% of Sunnis want us to leave within a year (the number is 80% for Shiites in Baghdad). By wide margins, both groups believe U.S. forces are provoking more violence than they’re preventing, and both groups believe that day-to-day security would improve if we left. Support for attacks on U.S. forces now commands majority support among both Shiites and Sunnis. And none of this is because of successful al-Qaeda propaganda: 94% of Iraqis continue to disapprove of al-Qaeda.
Now, it may be that these views are misguided. But it hardly matters: it’s simply not possible for us to occupy the country successfully if a majority of Iraqis actively support attacks on our troops and a vast majority think we’re responsible for the rising violence. It’s time for us to leave.
Moreover, as Matt Yglesias noted, there are practical concerns to consider.
Whatever it might be possible for US forces to achieve in principle, we’re not going to be able to do anything useful in the face of this kind of overwhelming opposition to our very presence. People won’t cooperate with our troops meaningfully or be interested in American views on what kind of steps the Iraqi government should or should not be taking. Most of all, you certainly can’t build a democracy with an unpopular occupying army staying in a foreign country in the face of hostile public attitudes. Insofar as the Iraqi government does cooperate with our forces and does take our suggestions, it’s only going to find itself discredited by association with us.
The situation is untenable, and we need to leave. What’s more, we need to start planning to leave as soon as possible so we can figure out a plan that’s orderly and reasonably safe, rather than finding ourselves needing to do it in a panic 30 months from now.
We’re talking about what the administration believes is a functioning democracy, and in a democracy, the electorate’s desire to see a foreign army leave should be respected.
For nearly four years, every Bush administration decision regarding Iraq has failed to make conditions any better. Iraqis have seen enough; Americans have seen enough. When will Bush?