Plenty of polls can tell us who has a high approval rating, and plenty more can show which political figures can beat other political figures in hypothetical election match-ups, but I’ve always found Quinnipiac’s “National Thermometer” poll a bit more useful. The poll, released quarterly, measures what the public feels generally towards various leaders.
The newest results suggest the conservative drive to tear down soon-to-be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hasn’t been particularly effective. At the same time, the effort to smear Sen. John Kerry was largely successful.
House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi, who ranked last in Quinnipiac University’s quarterly reading of voter sentiment about national leaders September 5, has dramatically improved her standing. […]
The survey, taken the week after the Democrats won back Congress, asks voters to rate the warmth of their feelings for leaders on a scale of 0 – 100. Speaker-elect Pelosi’s rating has jumped from a 34.7 mean temperature in September to 46.7, slightly behind New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 49.
“In September, most Americans did not know enough about U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, and those who did didn’t like what they knew. Now, perhaps because everyone likes a winner, she has increased her standing with the American people. And only about a third of Americans say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
It’s a pleasant surprise. In the months leading up to the election, the GOP establishment and several Republican campaigns tried repeatedly to make Pelosi’s name synonymous with “out-of-control liberal.” What’s more, the media was less than kind to Pelosi the week after the election, offering the public bizarre reports on her appearance and overheated coverage of her role in the House Majority Leader race. And Pelosi still saw her standing with the public go up considerably.
John Kerry is probably thinking, “If only I were that fortunate.”
In the thermometer poll, 20 nationally-recognized political figures were included. Kerry finished dead last, and was the only pol to have a total score below 40 (respondents give a rating from 0 to 100). It suggests the often-ridiculous coverage of Kerry’s botched joke had an effect — his rating was 46.3 in March and is 39.6 now.
It’s not fair, and Kerry clearly deserves better, but the right and the media have sullied his name. My sense is that running again in 2008 would be a mistake — most Dems in the Quinnipiac poll were lukewarm on Kerry, and Republicans and independents were hostile. At this point, I hope he skips the race.
Regardless, here’s the top 10 most highly rated political leaders, with the number of poll respondents who weren’t sure in parentheses:
1. Rudolph Giuliani – 64.2. (9)
2. Sen. Barack Obama 58.8 (41)
3. Sen. John McCain 57.7 (12)
4. Condoleezza Rice – 56.1 (7)
5. Bill Clinton – 55.8 (1)
6. Sen. Joseph Lieberman – 52.7 (16)
7. NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg – 51.1 (44)
8. John Edwards – 49.9 (20)
9. Sen. Hillary Clinton – 49 (1)
10. N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson – 47.7 (65)
With 2008 in mind, Giuliani’s ratings have to be considered wildly inflated. The poll shows him polling well with Dems, which would end as soon as he started running to the right to get the GOP nomination. Giuliani also remains very popular with the Republican base, which would also vanish once they learn about his less-conservative policy positions on social issues.
Obama’s popularity is interesting, but it’s worth noting that 41% still don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. That’s surprisingly high, but more importantly, it’s also a potential problem for the senator’s presidential campaign — for a large segment of the population, he’s a blank slate that the right will be anxious to fill.
For what it’s worth, Al Gore finished at number 14, a bit better than Bush, with a 44.9 rating. What’s more, his numbers have been on the rise this year. (John Kerry, take note — by sitting out a cycle, a guy can really rehabilitate his image.)
Oh, and then there’s the Big Dog. As Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said, “Former President Clinton remains more popular than his wife and much better thought of by the American public than the current occupant of the Oval Office.”