Harry Reid and the ‘surge’ in Iraq

When incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told George Stephanopoulos yesterday that he’d support a temporary increase in troops sent to Iraq, it sounded, at first blush, that Reid had strayed from the party line. Many Dems were under the impression that he’d given his tacit endorsement of the McCain-backed plan for thousands of additional troops.

But I think his comments, which were hardly ideal, were misconstrued.

In a separate interview on the ABC News program “This Week,” Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the incoming Democratic majority leader, said he could support a troop increase only if it were temporary. “If it’s for a surge, that is, for two or three months, and it’s part of a program to get us out of there as indicated by this time next year, then, sure, I’ll go along with it.”

Mr. Reid added: “The American people will not allow this war to go on as it has. It simply is a war that will not be won militarily. It can only be won politically.”

The common refrain was, “How could Reid endorse a surge, even if it’s just for a couple of months?” Reid could have phrased his response better, but he wasn’t giving in; he was offering an alternative — Bush can boost troop levels in the short-term, just as long as he brings them home shortly thereafter.

As Aravosis put it:

Reid may be using the troop increase as a backdoor way of getting a firm commitment to end our combat engagement in Iraq by 2008. By giving our commanders on the ground what they want — if in fact they want more troops — Reid and the Democrats are seen as supporting our commanders rather than undercutting the war effort, and ultimately being blamed by the Republicans for losing the war. But at the same time, Reid is giving our generals, and our commander in chief, one last change to fix things. And if they don’t, we’re out of there — the public will know that Bush has lost this war, Harry Reid gave him a fair shot, and it was the Democrats that finally got our troops home safely.

That certainly seems to be what Reid has in mind. I’m not sure if I agree with the approach, of course, and would probably have preferred to hear him say, “Thousands of additional troops? Why? Where are they going to come from? What are these troops going to do once they’re there?” But as it stands, I was nevertheless pleased to see Reid state a clear desire to get the troops out of there starting next spring. Indeed, Reid’s vision of a short-term surge may in fact be the first part of a broader withdrawal.

By any reasonable measure, that isn’t even close to what McCain, Lieberman, and the neocons have in mind.

Because some of Reid’s comments have been taken out of context a bit, I thought I’d offer readers a full transcript of the relevant portion of the interview, so folks can know exactly what was said.

Stephanopoulos: As you know, President Bush is now considering that kind of a surge of up to 30,000 troops, in fact, ABC is reporting now that he’s likely to recommend that we send 30,000 or more troops into Iraq right now. Can you support that?

Reid: George, as the Iraq study group indicated, a group of people who are bipartisan, Democrats, Republicans, secretaries of defense, secretary of state, they have said that the situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. And they’re right. We have to change course in Iraq. That was determined on November 7th and the people feel even more strongly today than they did on November 7th. Change of course, what does that mean? It means that by the first quarter of 2008, American troops should be out of there. That’s what the Iraq study group says. That’s what we’ve said. We have to change course. The war will not be won militarily. It can only be won politically. The Iraqis have to take care of their own fate and they can do that. But they’re not going to do it with us being an occupying force there. We have to reconstitute the reconstruction efforts. We’ve produced – they produce less oil now than before the war, less electricity. Baghdad used to have 15 hours of electricity. Now they have three hours of electricity. Less potable water. We have to understand that there is not a single non-deployed army unit now that’s battle ready. We’re $75 billion in the hole to bring us up to what we were prior to the war starting.

Stephanopoulos: I know what the study group called for. If the President calls for adding more troops to Baghdad, adding more troops to Iraq, will you oppose it?

Reid: If it’s for a surge, that is for two or three months and it’s part of a program to get us out of there as indicated by this time next year, then sure, I’ll go along with it. But if it’s put 40,000 more troops in there, you know, we’ve lost in Nevada about 30 troops killed. Scores have been wounded. We’re now are approaching 3,000 dead Americans, costing the American people $2.5 to $3 billion a week. This is a war that we have to change course. The President has to do that.

Stephanopoulos: You say you’d support it if it’s temporary. I guess, the question is how will you know that it’s going to be temporary? I mean, once – even – even if that condition is set, even if the President says we’d like them to come home in two or three months, there’s no way you’re going to know they’re going to be able to come home is there?

Reid: If the commanders on the ground said this is just for a short period of time we’ll go along with that. But to put more troops in there, keep in mind, I repeat, the situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. Those aren’t my words. Those are words of some of the finest patriots we have in this country, Democrats and Republicans, Iraq study group.

Stephanopoulos: One of the plans being considered by the President is actually authored by one of our next guests, General Jack Keane, retired General Jack Keane. And it envisions an increase that would take about 18 to 24 months.

Reid: All I can do, George, is shake my head. I have no military experience but I have political experience. The American people will not allow this war to go on as it has. It simply is a war that will not be won militarily. It can only be won politically. The Iraqi people must be the people that determine their fate. They’ve got to get the Sunnis and the Shias and the Kurds together and solve that problem. There has to be a regional look at this. The President should immediately call, as has been called for by Secretary Baker and others, by the way, he’s a Republican, to bring in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and maybe even Iraq, to determine how best to solve the problems there. It is their problem more than it’s ours.

And let’s take the honest look here- nobody is sending 20, 30, or 40,000 “extra” troops from anywhere… (they don’t exist). All that they will do is put a 90 or 120 day extension on the tours of the poor bastards who were supposed to be coming home in Jan/Feb, and maybe move up the fly dates on a couple of brigades…

End result? a temporary bottom-line increase in boots-on-the-ground, and yet another group of f*&ked G.I.s having to pull a 15-month deployment (that’s 15 months on-the-ground, not including months of processing time on either side, for reservists)…

  • We are so unused to leaders in this nation demonstrating any flexibility at all that Reid’s earnest approach to giving a little to gain his ultimate goal is seen as a cave-in. Reid has a healthy attitude that says the Dem are willing to work with the military to achieve the best possible outcome but the end result still must be a troop redeployment. It’s so refreahing it feels like a slap in the face after years of Bush’s “you’re with us or you’re with the enemy” cracks.

  • By this time it ought to be clear that one should NEVER go along with the administration, particularly based on any promise of future behavior. There’s no reason to do it politically, no reason to do it substantively, and there’s not reason to think, as a practical matter, that the administration will carry through its side of any bargain in good faith.

    Bush is alone in this. Attack him for this idiotic plan, and give him no cover. He will do the surge whether anyone backs him on it or not, and when it fails, the reward for anyone from the Dem side who supported him (for whatever reason) will be to share the blame.

  • Harry Reid better start thinking very carefully before any remark issues from his lips. I agree with you totally jimBOB @ 3 and couldn’t have said it as well as you have.

  • “Ah yes, Prime Minister, it doesn’t matter the casualties we suffered at the Somme – if you’ll just send us more, I’m sure we’ll win at Paaschendaele.”

    The “surge” didn’t work this past summer in Baghdad, unless you think three months of the highest American casualties in several years is “success” (“hey, we’re killing more of them than they are of us, we must be winning” – that logic didn’t work for Douglas Haig in 1917, for William Westmoreland in 1968, and it’s not working here now).

    As John Kerry asked 35 years ago: “How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?”

  • Extending the time spent in Iraq by troops already there does NOT “increase the number of boots on the ground.” It is a mathematical impossibility.

    Example: If you fill the 16-gallon fuel tank on an automobile, you have 16 gallons in the tank. Is it possible, by just parking the damned thing for 90 days (thus keeping the fuel in the tank for an extra three months), to suddenly turn that 16 gallons of gas into more than 16 gallons?

    No—and Harry Reid ought to be smart enough to know that.

    Sending an additional 30,000 troops to Baghdad means just that—SENDING AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 TROOPS.

    That’s the equivalent of three full combat divisions, so what we’re talking about here is pulling nine full combat brigades—some of which are still at substandard deployment strength due to attrition—out of their home rotations, and sending them back into the line.

    And—once they’re sent into the line, what guarantees are there that Herr Bush won’t just leave them there? The crack-head doesn’t have much in the way of credibility when it comes to the truth, you know. He has proven his ability to lie to the Congress, the the People, and to the world. How does one know that he isn’t lying now?

  • jim BOB is essentially correct IMO. Bush hasn’t even indicated that he’s ready to change course, so giving him anything at this point is stupid. Reid shouldn’t give Bush anything until Bush signs a paper that says we’re pulling out by 2008. If Bush won’t do that, then it’s not Reid’s fault when the surge fails (as pretty much everyone says it will).

    And besides, a small surge of troops will only make things worse. We aren’t controlling that place with 130,000 troops, why would another 30,000 make a big difference? Does anyone but the insane people believe that it will?

  • “By any reasonable measure, that isn’t even close to what McCain, Lieberman, and the neocons have in mind.”

    CB, spin it any way you want, but support for an additional 30,000 troops is support for an additional 30,000 troops. Answer me this: What happens if the additional 30,000 get (remain) there and things do start getting a bit better? Does that mean Reid would sign up for another 3-6 months of inflated troop levels??

    That’s a very slippery slope he just started walking up.

  • Reid should remember the last time Bush got Democratic support for a surge of troops. Any further good faith patriotic support for the commander in chief has no credibility whatsoever. He should know that “bi-partisan” is a con game. So Harry, watch your wallet and your words when dealing with George.

  • Steve (Who—Me?)- Extensions do increase the numbers- here’s how. Say we have 140,000 troops in Iraq on Jan. 1. Say that 40,000 are supposed to leave by Jan. 31, and be replaced by an equal 40,000 on that date. 140,000-40,000+40,000=140,000. Now we extend those 40,000 (who were supposed to leave by Jan. 31) to April 30, while keeping the Jan. 31. arrival date for the incoming troops. Now it’s 140,000+40,000+40,000=180,000. That’s how we accomplish surges.
    Nobody is, at this point, suggesting actually deploying ‘fresh’ troops in for a 90-day rotation. First, there aren’t any fresh troops, and second, it’s a heck of a lot more expensive and time-consuming to deploy new troops rather than just extend the old. *note- this doesn’t mean that I agree with doing it this way, but this is how it works.

  • JRS jr- take a look at my post about how this ‘surge’ will be accomplished (e.g. by extending tours). Extending tours of soldiers who have already spent 12 months straight in-country is not a popular move- look at the amount of press the wives kicked up in Alaska when their Brigade got extended…

    Quite simply, Reid is counting on the fact that they can really only sustain this surge for a 90-120 day window. Since the rotations are basically yearly, they won’t be able to do massive early rotations in without fucking up the entire deployment schedule- kind of a logistics nightmare.

    Reid is being rather a genius on this one. Give the President EXACTLY what he is asking for (because these temporary extensions have happened, unfortunately, rather frequently in Iraq), but then tying it DIRECTLY to some quantifiable goals. This is subtle, paperwork-based stuff (and, BTW, remember that Reid is a huge fan of the rulebook, so he knows how to play), and it’s hugely effective in government bureaucracy…

  • We are forgetting an import fact: I doesn’t much matter what Democrats think about “surging” it’s going to happen. Reid by acquiescing on this point changes the debate from the kabuki dance of “surging” or not “surging”, which they won’t win, to a debate on how long the “surge” will last and when the Iraq debacle will begin to wind down which is what he American people want. I think is this about using your opponents weight against him.

  • Has it dawned on Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the all-too-willing compromisers that WE WON last month? That we now have A LARGER CONGRESSIONAL MAJORITY than Newt Gingrich & Co. had after their “revolutionary” takeover in ’94? Why can’t we (or won’t we?) shove our electoral victories down the throats of the failed Bush Crime Family? Why won’t we simply cut war-funding, other than that directed toward a hasty withdrawal, then begin impeachment proceedings against Cheney/Bush and prosecutions for war crimes and profiteering? Goddammit, WE WON! it ought to count for something.

  • Ed- Ummmmmm… I don’t think any politician is quite stupid enough to take a stand which could even remotely be said to be ‘anti-soldier’ in any way, shape, or form… and cutting war funding would involve cutting money which goes directly to troops and their equipment. it would be a political disaster. (and don’t think that the Pentagon hasn’t wrapped up the various parts of the budget well enough that you can’t just cut ‘war funding’. For example, think about replacing all of those Humvees which get blown up every 5 minutes. Is that ‘war funding’?… Not really, because the Unit still needs those Humvees, no matter where they are…)

  • I don’t think Reid is a genius; I think he’s a political hack and a sell-out, talking from both sides of his mouth. Just look at the two pieces of pork this “genius” has slipped in into the budget at the last minute on Friday:
    http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/002172.php
    despiter all the promises Dems gave to keep their house clean.

    This is not chess pieces we’re talking about; this is *people*. Extra 30K *people* exposed to the horrors of war. And 90-120 days may not seem like much if one’s sitting at one’s keyboard or in Congress, but it’s 90-120 days TOO EFFING LONG for those on the frontlines.

  • “If it’s for a surge, that is, for two or three months, and it’s part of a program to get us out of there as indicated by this time next year, then, sure, I’ll go along with it.”

    But it’s not going to be part of a program to get us out. Reid knows it, we know it. That means no, he’s not going to support a troop increase. I have no problem with that.

    What I do have a problem with is this: Bush is not going to pull any of our boys and girls out of Iraq, and I don’t see any way Congress can make him. Impeachment is a dead end because there’s no way to accomplish removal by the senate. Cutting off funding would be the other way, but I’m not confident even that would work. Anyone want to bet on whether or not Bush is willing to let soldiers rot out in the desert without enough beans and bullets? I think the best Congress can do is put an appropriations bill before Bush that pays for Iraq with taxes and force him to sign it – or not.

    It’s infuriating, but if it makes you feel any better think of this: winning the election counts for something, but the election that needed winning was in 2004. Better late than never and all that crap, but a stitch in time saves nine – and when it was time, the American electorate blew it. Ergo, a bare majority of the electorate is getting exactly what it deserves. Merry Christmas, dumbasses.

    (It doesn’t work for me either).

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