Pentagon to release unnecessarily classified numbers?

December 18, 2006

Following up on an item from the weekend, Justin Rood explained that the Government Accountability Office tracks the number of per-months attacks in Iraq, based on Pentagon data, and creates a chart. For some reason the latest GAO chart stopped in August 2006, despite the fact that the report having been produced in December.

Asked for an explanation on the missing data, Joseph Christoff, the GAO official who produced the document, told Rood that he had the data, but the Pentagon classified the numbers. He had no choice but to leave the report incomplete.

So, why classify monthly attack counts? For three particularly violent months? At the exact time when policy makers are trying to shape a new approach to the conflict? Col. Mark Ballesteros, a spokesman for the Defense Department, got back to Rood today.

“That’s an interesting accusation from your source,” Ballesteros said. As it happens, the Pentagon is releasing a report today at 5 p.m. on “back trends in violence” in Iraq.

Does it contain the three-month attack data the Pentagon declined to allow the GAO to include in its report?

Ballesteros paused. “There’s information about attacks. Okay?” he replied. “Why don’t you wait until 5 o’clock?”

One almost gets the sense that Pentagon officials are a little sensitive about classifying information without cause.

The report, which may or may not include the missing data, is supposed to be posted to the Pentagon website in less than an hour. I’ll try and update this post with additional information later.

The report (.pdf) is out, but it doesn’t quite spell things out the way the GAO report did. Neverhtless, there was, as expected, considerable violence in the “missing” months. As Justin Rood noted

“Attack levels—both overall and in all specific measurable categories—were the highest on record during this reporting period, due in part to what has become an annual cycle of increased violence during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. . . .

“Country-wide, the average number of weekly attacks increased 22% from the previous reporting period (May 20, 2006 to August 11, 2006) to the current reporting period (August 12, 2006 through November 10, 2006). Attacks decreased slightly in August, but rebounded quickly and were the highest on record in September and October.”

Is it just the number of attacks being released, or is there specific information about those attacks? Because wasn’t there one attack in the past three months that is highly controversial?

  • The erosion of Iraqi confidence in their government, expressed using various measures throughout the report, is rather startling. Thanks for the link, taio (assuming this is the correct report, as noted).

  • “That’s an interesting accusation from your source,”

    “Accusation” is a pretty harsh word to use aimed at a fellow government official, even coming from a Pentagon REMF. “Comment”, or even “opinion” would, I think, be a bit more acceptable.

    Even if Rummy has completely assholified the entire DoD, I would think a little bit of courtesy would be shown by a PAO.

  • From the NYTimes

    A Pentagon assessment of security conditions in Iraq concluded Monday that attacks against American and Iraqi targets had surged this summer and autumn to their highest level, and called violence by Shiite militants the most significant threat in Baghdad.

    The report, which covers the period from early August to early November, found an average of almost 960 attacks against Americans and Iraqis every week, the highest level recorded since the Pentagon began issuing the quarterly reports in 2005, with the biggest surge in attacks against American-led forces. That was an increase of 22 percent from the level for early May to early August, the report said[…]
    According to the Pentagon, the weekly average of 959 attacks was a jump of 175 from the previous three months. As a consequence, civilian deaths and injuries reached a record 93 a day.[…]
    The increase in violence coincided with the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, when there had previously been a temporary spike in attacks, but also reflected the deeper sectarian passions that have flared since an attack in February 2006 on a Shiite shrine in Samarra.

    According to Pentagon data used in formulating the report, there were 1,028 sectarian “executions” in October. That was a slight dip from July, when there were 1,169 executions, but a major increase since January, when there were 180. During this period, “ethno-sectarian incidents” have steadily risen, the report noted.

    That last bit sounds like there is some serious ethnic cleansing going on.

  • According to the Pentagon, the weekly average of 959 attacks was a jump of 175 from the previous three months. As a consequence, civilian deaths and injuries reached a record 93 a day.[…]
    The increase in violence coincided with the Islamic holy month of Ramadan — rege, @6, quoting from NYT

    Yeah, I saw that one too and thought the mention of Ramadan in connection to the increase in violence was peculiar. What? They get hungry during the day so, for something better to do, go and kill themselves some Americans or opposite-religion Iraqis?

    What I find “interesting” in comparing this report to the previous GAO ones is not so much the lack of ther month-by-month breakdown. That, you can do without; the number that counts is the 22% increase, when comparing one 3 months period to the next. What’s weird to me is that the GAO reports charted attacks against the *coalition*; this one seems to be talking about a different subset of targets (Americans and Iraqis). Don’t know what it means, though…

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