A new poll tells the right what it wants to hear

February 21, 2007

For months, every credible national poll has said pretty much the same thing: Americans are dismayed at conditions in Iraq, they disapprove of Bush’s escalation strategy, they disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war in general, they think the war was a mistake, and they want to see U.S. troops withdrawn within the next year, if not sooner.

And then there’s the new poll from Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican firm. At first blush, the POS poll offers the expected results, with 60% believing Bush is doing a poor job and the same number believing that the president’s vision of a stable democracy in Iraq will never happen. Predictable, right? Yes, right up until you see this item in today New York Post.

In a dramatic finding, a new poll shows a solid majority of Americans still wants to win the war in Iraq — and keep U.S. troops there until the Baghdad government can take over.

Strong majorities also say victory is vital to the War on Terror and that Americans should support President Bush even if they have concerns about the way the war is being handled, according to the survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.

In fact, Neil Newhouse, a POS partner, said, “The survey shows Americans want to win in Iraq, and that they understand Iraq is the central point in the war against terrorism and they can support a U.S. strategy aimed at achieving victory. The idea of pulling back from Iraq is not where the majority of Americans are.”

So, how did Public Opinion Strategies come to these conclusions? It has everything to do with how the questions are worded.

James Joyner published a .pdf version of the survey, which offers helpful insights into the methodology. Poll respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements regarding the war in Iraq. Here’s a sampling:

* “Even if they have concerns about his war policies, Americans should stand behind the President in Iraq because we are at war.”

* “The Democrats are going too far, too fast in pressing the President to withdraw the troops from Iraq.”

* “I support finishing the job in Iraq, that is, keeping the troops there until the Iraqi government can maintain control and provide security for its people.”

* “A stable Iraq is the best way to protect America from the nuclear threat of Iran.”

* “Republicans in Congress have gone too far in their criticism of the war and the President.”

* “I don’t really care about what happens in Iraq after the US leaves, I just want the troops brought home.”

It’s likely a conservative would look at the wording of these “questions” and believe they’re objectively worded, but they’re clearly not. These are basically the White House’s carefully-worded talking points. They’re designed to register certain responses, which naturally brings the validity of the poll into question.

Indeed, 42% of Americans believe Republicans have criticized Bush too much on the war? Does anyone really believe that?

Apparently, it doesn’t matter. The results tell war supporters basically what they want to hear, and as a result, conservative outlets like the NY Post, among others, are touting the results. “See?” the right says, “All of the other polls are irrelevant. We finally found a good one.”

I’m afraid not.

Update: No More Mister Nice Blog has an excellent post along the same lines. (Great minds think alike, right Steve?)

Second Update: Greg Sargent chatted this afternoon with a major Republican pollster who said the poll is awful. “This poll is not the quality we’ve come to expect from national polling firms,” Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson said.

NEW YORK POST TO KOCH; YOU’RE DOING JUST FINE.

  • Was this serious? A firm referred to as POS?
    So, can we say that all the folk who take it seriously as having a POS mindset?
    I can’t continue, I’m laughing too much.

  • Any information outlet tied to Rupert Murdoch has as much credibility as a discarded cigarette butt lying in a dirty gutter. -Kevo

  • I agree it’s a P.O.S. poll. They probably don’t want to talk about this either:

    63% think the United States should hold direct talks with Iran about the situation in Iraq.

    Gotta pick those cherries carefully.

  • Looking at the .pdf, this poll tried way too hard to do what it was paid to do — go fishing for something positive for Repubs. Life sucks when you’re forced to pay people to hear good news about yourself

    But even then bad news still abounds. a strong 60% admitted Iraq will never be a stable democracy. That can’t be good news for Bush.

    Not only can a poll be skewed by how the questions are phrased and in what order are they presented, but the pollster also has a great deal of control over who gets surveyed. Where is the survey conducted, what criteria shape the call list such as whether the list contains registered voters or those who voted in the last election are all factors that can be chosen or excluded for the purposes of the poll. Another factor is becoming rapidly apparent about an inherent bias in polls: cell phones. Call lists normally consist of land lines and not cell phone numbers. If you look at the age and race of those polled, 81% were white and over half are over 55 years of age. Younger, urban people are more likely to use cell phones and even rely on them as the only source of phone contact. Older, rural folks are more likely to rely on the traditional land line. Because of the nature of call lists and the changes technology is having on our society, call list demographic are inherently skewed to a more conservative demographic.

  • Y’know, that “pOs” would look real good—with a freaking swaztika inside the “O.” Just like “gOp,” “fOx,” and the beloved Reich minister of fairy-tale-isms, tOny snOw….”

  • POS. Mwahahaa! [Pounds desk, falls out of chair.]

    Of my gods. Stuff like this makes me think the radical right has been infiltrated by Guerilla Lefties. But I know they’re really just clueless oiks.

    Soon they’ll come out with a poll stating that the (carefully selected and questioned) majority of Americans support internment camps for people who disagree with the pResident. Then another poll will come out showing that America thinks the pResident is the second coming of Christ…

  • The answer is orange: Then another poll will come out showing that America thinks the pResident is the second coming of Christ…

    they need a poll for that? i thought we already knew that already.

  • Jesus Christ — Steve Sailer spam.

    Lest anyone think Steve M. is crazy, there was Sailer spam, which was deleted.

  • The point can never be reached where the advocates of fair and honest discourse can allow such blatant manipulations to go unchallenged. 30% will eat whatever swill the right is serving and ask for seconds. With that a large of a motivated constituency locked in, those who believe in rational, civil policies can never afford to be smug and assume the other 70% will always smell the putrefication. Brutal frankness is the best approach. When complaints are expressed, just say, ‘We’ll stop calling them liars, when they stop lying.’ No one can doubt that Americans admire strength and fortitude. They just have to be shown that those characteristics are not synonymous with gun-totin.

  • If I were naming my company, it sure wouldn’t be titled something that reduces to the initials “POS;” it makes you wonder.

    I actually heard this reported on C-SPAN Radio this morning on my way to work, right after the report that Bush was calling the British withdrawal from Iraq a “sign of progress.”

    I spent the rest of my commute looking for the White Rabbit or signs for directions to the Tea Party…

  • This poll could be called support from one POS for another POS, the Retard on the Rug in the Oval Orifice. Cheney and Rove have to find published lies to keep the Dumbcider convinced he actually has some supporters. On another thread, a poster reminded us of Shrub’s intentions to reduce funding for care of head injuries last year. More head injuries=more Republicans.

  • Although I agree with your point, I think you have not made your deconstruction of the problem questions very clear. Take this question for example: “Even if they have concerns about his war policies, Americans should stand behind the President in Iraq because we are at war.”

    The first problem is that it puts the policy position in a subordinate clause. The second problem is that it uses the very moralistic “stand behind the President” as the focus of the sentence. Third is its appeal to patriotism when it seems to be offered as a position to select. And fourth, coming at the beginning of the list of these questions, it biases the subsequent responses.

    If you rub their nose in it, the Republicans have more trouble denying that these are biased questions.

  • Fortunately, more and more Americans are wiseing up to the fact that the Republican Party is a criminal organization that will stop at nothing to maintain power.

  • What’s interesting to me is the results on question #8:

    8. Iraq will never become a stable democracy.

    60% Totally Agree with that statement. How is one to reconcile that with the other results?

    (Or maybe I’m misunderstanding this portion of the survery. In particular, this part: Ranked by % Strongly Agree.)

  • What is interesting about this poll is what its purpose might be. Frankly, I doubt that POS would field a national poll simply for the purpose of getting a story in the NY Post and generating support from various right-wing talk show hosts. After all, most public opinion firms make their bucks from providing their clients with useful data, not from generating positive press from Rush Limbaugh.

    In this case, the question wording is so obviously biased that any professional could spot problems with each statement. That’s not a good way to strengthen your brand, even if you’re a Republican polling firm.

    So what was the purpose? It looks as if criticism that the poll is simply recycled GOP talking points is misplaced. The objective, I suspect, was to test the effectiveness of those points and associated terms such as “stability” as a synonym for “victory,” “stand(ing) behind the President as an alternative to supporting Bush’s policies, and assertions that criticism of the President “goes too far.”

    This sort of poll is common in political campaigns where candidates look for the best phrases and terms to drive voters’ decisions. Public Opinion STRATEGIES is simply doing what market research firms typically do: look for the most persuasive vocabulary for public relations purposes.

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