Since I haven’t posted in a few days, I wanted to mention a few poll updates in the race to determine the Dems’ presidential nominee.
First, the latest statewide poll in Iowa reinforces the results of other recent Iowa surveys — Dean is losing his lead and Gephardt is starting to surge.
In a poll released Friday by Research 2000, 400 registered Iowa Dems who said they are likely to vote in the Jan. 19 caucuses were asked which candidate they would support. While the same poll showed Dean with a 4-point lead in September, this poll shows Dean and Gephardt tied. (margin of error +/- 4%)
Gephardt — 26 percent (up from 21 percent in September)
Dean — 26 percent (up from 25 percent in September)
Kerry — 15 percent (down from 16 percent in September)
Edwards — 8 percent (up from 6 percent in September)
Iowa will certainly be a very tough fight down to the end. Gephardt will do anything he has to do to win here, because unlike Dean, a Gephardt loss in Iowa pretty much ends his campaign.
South Carolina, meanwhile, is another closely-watched state with a key primary a week after New Hampshire’s. In fact, it will be the first primary in the deep South where Al Gore failed to win a single state.
In an American Research Group poll released Friday, Wesley Clark appears to be pulling ahead in the state, taking the lead away from John Edwards (margin of error +/- 4%)
Clark — 17 percent (up from 7 percent in September)
Edwards — 10 percent (down from 16 percent in September)
Lieberman — 8 percent (up from 7 percent in September)
Gephardt — 7 percent (up from 5 percent in September)
Dean — 7 percent (up from 6 percent in September)
Braun — 5 percent (up from 4 percent in September)
Sharpton — 5 percent (no change from September)
Kerry — 4 percent (down from 5 percent in September)
Kucinich — 1 percent (no change from September)
In some ways, the ARG poll is more reliable than other recent South Carolina polls. This survey included a relatively large sample size — 600 state Dems — and polled those who said they definitely planned on voting in the state’s Feb. 3 primary.
Obviously, these results have to cause concern for the Edwards campaign. The North Carolina Senator almost certainly won’t be in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Edwards had been looking to South Carolina as the primary victory that would boost his prospects. Edwards was, after all, born in South Carolina, he represents a neighboring state, and he’s spent over $600,000 in the state so far. For his lead to disappear so quickly is a bad sign.
It’s also troubling for Kerry, who clearly wanted to compete in South Carolina, even choosing the state for his campaign announcement speech over the summer. The fact that his support has dropped to 4 percent must be discouraging for his campaign.
And for those keeping track of such things, this poll shows that Gen. Clark has built a fairly impressive base in several key states in just a few weeks. As The American Prospect’s Garance Franke-Ruta mentioned the other day, Clark now leads in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, California, Illinois (among those closely following the race), and Wisconsin. Clark is in second place (and gaining) in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Not bad for a guy who just got in the race and still doesn’t have a formal campaign manager.