For the better part of two months, after Barack Obama had already amassed a seemingly insurmountable lead over Hillary Clinton, the Clinton campaign worked aggressively to reframe the debate — Obama had the math, Clinton had the momentum. He had the numbers; she had the narrative.
It now appears Clinton has neither.
In one respect, last night ended up largely as planned — a split decision in which both candidates won the states they were expected to win. But for about eight weeks or so, Clinton has been fueled by the perception of a competitive nomination fight, and expectations about her strengths and his weaknesses. And now those factors point to a Clinton campaign that appears to have run out of talking points.
Even if one ignores the significance of margins — Obama won North Carolina by 14.7 points; Clinton won Indiana by 1.8 points — and even if one accepts the premise that these are not game-changing results, this still isn’t good enough for the Clinton campaign. The May 6 primaries were an opportunity — Clinton’s last opportunity — to fundamentally reshape the race and make a plausible argument for her nomination.
She could not, to borrow a phrase, “close the deal.”
After her success in early March, Clinton saw an uphill climb, but also saw the benefits of waiting — she could stay in the game long enough to see if Obama falters under the weight of controversies, then go to the superdelegates with a compelling case that Obama was too damaged to win a general election. All Clinton needed were some flaps and frenzies to seriously undermine his chances.
Oddly enough, she got them. By any reasonable measure, March and April were decidedly unpleasant for Team Obama. Did anything go right? He was hit with Jeremiah Wright (twice), and “bitter-gate,” and a dip in the polls, and an unimpressive debate — all the while facing Clinton’s self-described kitchen-sink strategy.
It created a perfect scenario Clinton couldn’t have scripted any better — a reeling Obama, marred by controversy, falters in North Carolina and Indiana, prompting superdelegates to panic.
Everything was going to plan, right up until voters actually went to the polls.
I expect that Clinton will keep on fighting, but the writing is on the wall, whether she prefers to read it or not.
Senator Barack Obama won a commanding victory in the North Carolina primary on Tuesday and lost narrowly to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana, an outcome that injected a boost of momentum to Mr. Obama’s candidacy as the Democratic nominating contest entered its final month.
The results from the two primaries, the largest remaining Democratic ones, assured that Mr. Obama would widen his lead in pledged delegates over Mrs. Clinton, providing him with new ammunition as he seeks to persuade Democratic leaders to coalesce around his campaign. He also increased his lead in the popular vote in winning North Carolina by more than 200,000 votes.
“Don’t ever forget that we have a choice in this country,” Mr. Obama said in an address in Raleigh, N.C., that carried the unity themes of a convention speech. “We can choose not to be divided; that we can choose not to be afraid; that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we’ve talked about all those other years in all those other elections.”
In winning North Carolina by 14 percentage points, Mr. Obama — whose campaign had been embattled by controversy over the incendiary remarks of his former pastor — recorded his first primary victory in nearly two months. His campaign was preparing to open a new front in his battle with Mrs. Clinton, intensifying the argument to uncommitted Democratic superdelegates that he weathered a storm and that the time was dawning for the party to concentrate on the general election.
Oddly enough, it’s now Obama who can make use of Clinton’s talking points. He’s the one who can persevere. He’s the one who keeps fighting, even after having been knocked down. He’s the durable candidate who bounces back from adversity.
Looking at the landscape, that Obama will end this contest with more delegates, votes, and states is no longer in doubt. Since Super Tuesday, Obama has won more superdelegates at a rate of 5 to 1. If Clinton is a lawyer and the party is the jury, she’s trying to make a closing argument without any evidence.
There may be a compelling reason for Clinton to drag the process out even further, but I can’t think of it.