A Florida/Michigan ‘compromise’ that’s unlikely to help

Back in early April, Josh Marshall asked, “Now that Hillary’s fired Mark Penn, can she now fire Lanny Davis? Please? Or ask that he be put under some sort of house arrest?”

It’s not an uncommon sentiment, though the Clinton campaign can’t fire Davis; he’s not actually on staff. He’s just a very vocal campaign advocate, and prominent Clinton fundraiser, with extensive enough media contacts to generate attention for his political arguments. In 2006, Davis’ task was defending Joe Lieberman. In 2007, his task was giving the Bush gang bi-partisan cover by serving on the hollow White House Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board. And in 2008, his task is criticizing Barack Obama. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

The problem with Lanny Davis, though, is that he’s just been so unpleasant and hard to take seriously. This week, for example, Davis is offering a proposal to resolve the disagreement over how to deal with DNC delegates from Florida and Michigan.

In Michigan, Clinton received 55 percent of the vote. According to Thegreenpapers.com, she thus should receive 73 pledged delegates based on that percentage. What about the 50 remaining uncommitted delegates, and 7 collectively cast for Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich, who were also on the ballot?

Some of those 50 delegates might have been for Clinton as a second choice to candidates other than Obama, so it would be totally unfair to award all 50 delegates to Obama.

One little known fact: Clinton complied with party rules by allowing her name to remain on the ballot, as did Dodd and Kucinich. Obama was not forced by party rules to remove his name — he chose to do so.

The Rules Committee has several options. The fairest would be to allocate those 57 pledged delegates, to Clinton and Obama by the same ratio of their standing to one another in the average of the most recent Michigan statewide polls prior to the Jan. 15 primary. Or perhaps one Solomonic compromise, more generous to Obama than to Clinton, would be to divide the remaining delegates approximately 50-50 between the two of them, 28-27 (giving Clinton the extra delegate since she led in all the latest statewide polls prior to Jan. 15).

Davis’ reputation has taken a few hits of late, but I’m afraid a proposal like this one isn’t going to bolster his credibility. His “compromise” offer doesn’t make a lot of sense.

First, Davis awards seven delegates based on the collective vote Dodd and Kucinich earned. It’s not at all clear how Davis arrived at this number — neither Dodd nor Kucinich passed the 15% threshold in any Michigan district.

Second, Davis probably should have used a calculator before writing a piece for publication. As fivethirtyeight explained, “Davis’s arithmetic is wrong. He suggests that Michigan had 130 delegates: 73 for Clinton, 50 uncommitted, and these 7 phantom delegates he assigns to Kucinich and Dodd. But in fact, Michigan had been assigned 128 pledged delegates before its sanctions, and not 130.”

Third, Davis takes a quick and extraneous shot at Obama for removing his name from the ballot. Obama, like John Edwards, Bill Richardson, and Joe Biden, read party rules to necessitate removing their names from consideration. Clinton, at the time, came to a different conclusion, but insisted that the results from Michigan would not count. To borrow Davis’ construct, Clinton was not forced by party rules to publicly declare that the results of Michigan’s primary would not count — she chose to do so.

And fourth, best of all, Davis offers a compromise solution that he feels is “more generous to Obama than to Clinton.” As part of his approach, Clinton would get all of the 73 delegates she would have won if Michigan’s primary counted. He’d then divide the remaining 57 in half, giving 28 to Clinton and 27 to Obama. (Of course, 28 + 27 = 55, so I assume Davis meant 29 and 28.)

In other words, as Davis sees it, Clinton won a primary in which she was the only top-tier candidate on the ballot. He’d give her all of the delegates she “won.” As for the Michigan Dems who didn’t vote for Clinton, Davis would direct more than half of that support to Clinton anyway. She’s entitled to the delegates she earned, and most of the delegates she didn’t.

As for Florida, Davis recommends honoring the results, just as they are.

This is what constitutes a “compromise.”

Wow.

In most of the states that Obama won, Clinton was probably the Obama-voters’ second choice as well, so she should get half of his delegates there as well, I guess.

  • Sounds like the Clintons to me. It’s very sad to see how far over the shark they are and don’t even know it.

  • No wonder this bozo never made it for a position in the Clinton administration. Proof that a lot of college degrees is no proof of intelligence – were it not for tenure, he’d be under a freeway overpass in a box.

  • I find it somewhat frightening to see that a presidential bubble can not only form over a group that isn’t presidential yet, but that doesn’t even have a shot at becoming presidential. Or perhaps this is the same bubble they were in when Bill left the Whitehouse and that reality just hadn’t differed with the bubble’s view until Hillary lost in Iowa.

    It’s kind of like a horror movie: You see people you know turn into pod people, but you still can’t figure out how you can avoid it. And the next thing you know, you wake up the next morning and you’re not even you. Scary stuff.

  • I don’t think the Clinton campaign and supporters like Davis really realize how much damage this game of Calvinball is doing to the Clintons’ reputations.

    They seem not to realize that by constantly moving the goalposts, overriding their own previous actions and statements (Ron Ziegler, anyone?) and proposing ever more laughable “solutions” to Michigan (as well as increasingly bizarre measures of the race itself), they look like desperate hacks with no objective standards of conduct or fairness.

    I do realize that they’re living only in the moment right now, but I wish this popular former president and previously widely respected senator would spare a thought for their legacies. Down the road a bit, they might care more than they do now about how they’re viewed by history.

  • If this were a sporting event in a country where fans tend to get a little fanatical, these “player referees” would be lucky to leave the stadium in one piece.

    Davis — another good example of why Hillary is finishing second and should be finishing second.

  • The sooner we get this ulta-whiny crew out of the picture, the better.

    Super-delegates, do your DUTY now!

  • The Clinton’s campaign math dyslexia is the same mindset that allowed the campaign to not budget money properly. Therefore the death throes as expressed by those of the Clinton campaign are a result of their inability to monitor , manage or budget their time, talent and treasure. Not very presidential in my mind . We have had 8 years of that type of fiscal irresposibility.

  • As I’ve said before, I’m a Michigan voter. I was told various things: your vote won’t count, voting Uncommitted is a vote for Obama, or Edwards, or even Al Gore. If I, a relatively informed voter, was confused, then rest assured that most voters were (I gave up and voted in the Republican primary for the only anti-war guy, Ron Paul). In my opinion, there was no actual Democratic “vote” to “honor”.

    This is why you don’t change rules on the fly. The idiots who caused this (Granholm, Levin, etc.) should be voted out next time they’re up for election, and they should definitely not be seated as superdelegates.

  • LOL! So Davis wants to award 1/2 of the delegates who consiously voted against Clinton TO CLINTON. That’s intertesting. OK, we can write him off as insane.

  • Maria, I’m so glad you referred to Calvinball– I’ve been describing the Clinton campaign with that term for quite awhile now!

    Why won’t Hillary just exit gracefully? She’s only embarrassing herself!

  • Why won’t Hillary just exit gracefully? -The Caped Composer

    She emphatically answered that question last week, and then spent all weekend (non)apologizing for it.

  • Lanny is the Clinton Family Janitor. He shows up when the shit has hit the fan.

    He is not an honest broker and does not pretend to be one.

    The only goal of the Clinton campaign now is to run out the clock and get to convention. If they can waste news cycles talking about bogus Compromise Proposals, they’ll do it. Talking about BS of increasing the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination to 2210, buys them time. So May 31 may be doomsday for them.

  • He may have been defending Lieberman in 2006 but he’s still defending him now. See the long letter published in the National Journal on Friday, May 24, 2008, wherein he accuses Bob Shrum and Tad Devine of engaging in “revisionist history” with regard to the accusation that Lieberman engaged in overly soft debate against Cheney in the 2000 VP debate. He notes he’s been a friend and political supporter of Lieberman for more than 40 years. Perhaps that’s the problem with both of these men. They’ve been around so long and talked with each other so much they’ve drifted off into their own separate reality and believe their own BS.
    In the meantime, Davis is still not making any sense. Can he do anything but whine?

  • Can he do anything but whine?

    Well, this dispels one of the more annoying memes of this campaign season– it seems that it is the Clinton campaign, not the Obama campaign, that attracts the whine-track voters after all!!! 😉

  • According to one of the community bloggers at TPM a couple of days ago, CalvinBall is not a good comparison because in that game BOTH sides are allowed to change the rules. A Star Trek game named, I think, WizzBall would be more accurate to the current situation, because only one side gets to change the rules. Not being a Trekkie, I can’t vouch for spelling or accuracy here…

  • ummm…what?

    so we give Clinton the proportion of delegates that 55% would tally – fine.

    then we take the polling prior to the “primary” and from that figure divvy up the rest between Clinton and Obama? In other words the rest of the people who specifically voted for someone OTHER than Clinton??

    am I following this right??

    lunacy. sheer unadulterated lunacy.

  • I don’t believe Clinton violated party rules by leaving her name on the Michigan ballot.

    On the other hand, since Clinton agreed in writing not to “campaign or participate” in Michigan and Florida, I know she violated the “Four State Pledge” by choosing to leave her name on this ballot (while simultaneously claiming that not removing her name was only a “technicality”).

    She cheated, and as my Grandma used to tell us, “cheaters never win”. Let’s hope the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee don’t prove my Grandma wrong.

  • It’s not an uncommon sentiment, though the Clinton campaign can’t fire Davis; he’s not actually on staff. He’s just a very vocal campaign advocate…

    I thought you were referring to kkkarl rove or rush limbaugh…

  • of course, even with all of these shenanigans, Clinton still wouldn’t have a lead in pledged delegates…

  • From the beginning it should have been noted that this “punishment” for moving the dates of their primaries would cause severe damage to the party. Now, there is no way to settle this controversy that will satisfy both candidates.

    Party members should vote if the results should be allowed…and then go with the results they have or not at all. Noting how it could and would have been different is water under the bridge at this point. At least it will be settled. I doubt it will change the outcome of the nomination process anyway.

  • Stephen @#16 I think it was fizzbin or fitzbin, funny article it was. But I’m not a trekkie either, so I could be totally off also.

    And honestly, I actually don’t give a flying eff how they determine the delegate split for FL and MI, the only thing I want to see done is for all their superdels in those 2 states to be stripped of their voting rights at the convention. They created the problem, they need to be personally held accountable.

    But Lanny, sweetie, giving Clinton 50%+1 of the delegates of people who voted specifically against her ain’t a solution, nor is it fair or equitable, so fuck off, mmmm’k?

  • Huh, now, I seem to remember that only Calvin got to change the rules and Hobbes was always tweaking him about it. But I will go with the majority vote on this one, for I am nothing if not democratic and respectful of the processes to which I have previously agreed. 🙂

  • IMHO, the best possible scenario is that enough superdelgates come forward to support Obama that even if Clinton wants to count the Michigan and Florida results AS IS, then Obama would still be the nominee. Then, his nomination is above reproach. Even though MI and FL broke the rules and should abide by them, a significant number of Clinton supporters will feel screwed if those delegates aren’t seated. It will be Bush/Gore, except within the Dem. party.

  • I think I’ve stumbled upon a fair compromise.

    If the voters in Michigan & Florida knew that the people Clinton trusted with her campaign were such unscrupulous scumbags, NOBODY would’ve voted for her.

    So just give Obama all of the delegates in those states. Problem solved.

    You’re welcome.

  • There are only three options: 1. Being a Democratic nominee; 2. Joint ticket with Obama; or 3. Running as an Independent like Joe Lieberman and win.

  • Addison

    The only problem with not abiding by the rules originally set up by the party leaders, including the candidates, is that it will wreak havoc in the next election when individual states continue to move their primaries up earlier and earlier. It will essentially result in “primary anarchy”.

    Maybe the party can devise new rules for the next election, though. Six months of primaries is just too much, exhausting for everybody. I’d like to see three months of campaigning, from February to April or even longer, so the voters get to know the candidates and then all primaries and caucuses held in May. We don’t need early primaries — we’ve seen how many people who voted earlier now wish they could change their votes because the candidates are now much better known to them.

  • Let’s put an end to this war! No one side will be pleased with the outcome; furthermore, the outcome won’t impact what we already know… Obama will be representing the Democratic Party this coming fall. Democrats need both Michigan and Florida to be seated at the Convention later this summer. I propose the DNC meet in D.C. as planned, but first allow the returns to come in from the remaining three Primaries, see if Obama can obtain his required delegates number of 2026 (and he will), then announce their decision/findings concerning Florida and Michigan. Bottom line is the findings won’t help Hillary capture her victory (this time), but her voters won’t have this sense of being disenfranchised. Florida and Michigan will become very important battleground states this fall and both McCain and Obama will fight hard to turn purple into blue or red. After breaking the rules, politicians ended the war in Florida and Michigan long before the one we see before us today. All of this energy should be saved for the General Campaign and not wasted on the Democratic Primary process. I am betting on Florida and Michigan to do the right thing and may your voices be heard loud and clear for the race that really counts… Obama versus McCain you vote 2008?

  • I personally like the idea of giving both states all their pledged delegates but barring the superdelegates from attending in any capacity (including as a pledged delegate). They made the decisions, they’re the ones who should be punished. It will never happen though, people like Levin (who I generally like) and Graham (ditto) are the ones with real power, no one nationally wants to piss them off.

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