A funny thing happened on the way to McCain’s coronation

February 10, 2008

The results on Super Tuesday removed all doubt about who would win the Republican presidential nomination — John McCain’s lead was insurmountable. Senators who hate him began endorsing him, Mitt Romney was forced from the race, and the Arizona senator was suddenly free to shift his emphasis to a general-election strategy. It was a done deal.

Realistically, it probably still is, but it’s worth considering just how embarrassing yesterday’s GOP results were for the presumptive nominee. It was as if Republican voters in three states — one in the South, one in the West, and one in the Plains — collectively got together to smack McCain in the face.

Louisiana — Huckabee 43%, McCain 42%, Romney 6%, Paul 5%

Kansas — Huckabee 60%, McCain 24%, Paul 11%, Romney 3%

Washington (with 87% of the precincts reporting) — McCain 26%, Huckabee 24%, Paul 21%, Romney 17%

Sure, McCain wasn’t exactly campaigning aggressively in these states — neither was Huckabee or Paul — but the obvious frontrunner for the nomination probably expected to have at least a little more support from the party faithful. In Kansas, McCain had Sam Brownback touting his campaign, but that didn’t prevent a 36-point drubbing.

For that matter, Washington was supposed to be an easy one for McCain; Huckabee had few built-in advantages here. And yet, McCain apparently won a squeaker. (In what is, in effect, a two-person race, the frontrunner barely won a quarter of the vote. Ouch.)

In response to the poor showing, a campaign spokesperson said last night, “John McCain is the presumptive nominee in this race and our path forward is unchanged by today’s results.”

That’s probably right, but is still has to sting.

It’s a reminder of just how much work McCain still has to do. Over the past several days, the Republican establishment has, for the most part, reluctantly come to accept the realities of the political landscape. It was time, they decided, to close ranks.

But rank-and-file conservative Republicans apparently didn’t get the memo. This isn’t to say McCain will falter before claiming the nomination, but if yesterday proved anything, it’s that he’s going to have to work for it.

Jonathan Martin added:

Mike Huckabee blew him away in the Kansas caucuses and edged him out in the Louisiana primary. In Washington, which held caucuses, McCain bested Huckabee by two percent. And in a symbolic straw poll vote at CPAC, McCain was narrowly topped by Romney.

None of these results will have significant practical bearing on McCain’s seizing the nomination. But the Kansas and, to a much lesser degree, CPAC results underscore the maverick’s challenges with conservative activists. And Huckabee’s success in Louisiana demonstrate his continued appeal among evangelicals in the South and offer a reminder of why McCain didn’t enjoy a clean sweep on Super Tuesday…. [E]ven taking such symbolic hits after a week of questions about McCain’s ability to heal old wounds on the right flank is not the way they wanted to start the path to November.

It’s also a reminder of a point I’ve tried to emphasize all week — McCain is now going to have to move to the right, when he wants to move to the center.

As for Huckabee, he scored another two wins, without even trying very hard (he lacks the resources to mount serious campaigns in any state).

Asked last night why he’s still in the race, Huckabee said, “I have nothing else to do.” I guess that means he’ll be sticking around for a while longer.

How does someone who’s been tagged as a straight-talking maverick market himself to a group that seems to prize loyalty above all else? I think as far as McCain moves to the right, there will remain a significant number of people who simply don’t trust him.

  • Like CB said, the right-wing base is going to make it very difficult for McCain to move towards the center. The funny part is that nothing that McCain says or does will make them trust him any more than they do now. He just isn’t a “true conservative.” Whatever that is.

    It’s going to be even funnier when McCain has to either adopt the Bush agenda or run away from it.

    Have the fund-raising checks to Hillary started to pour in yet from Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter? 🙂

  • We just have to hope McCain and the rest of the GOP establishment doesn’t consider the possibility that maybe their “base”would be a little broader if they stopped sucking up to these fringe nutjobs. Of course that would require facing reality and facts, etc. Not their strong suit.

  • “For that matter, Washington was supposed to be an easy one for McCain; Huckabee had few built-in advantages here. And yet, McCain apparently won a squeaker. (In what is, in effect, a two-person race, the frontrunner barely won a quarter of the vote. Ouch.)”

    Don’t be so sure McCain won here in Washington. The caucus was only half of it. The Republicans can also look forward to a state primary on the 19th, for the other half of the delegates. And with both Paul *and* Huckabee with fresh air in their sails from the caucuses, it’s very possible that McCain could still lose.

  • Elections are no joke.

    We can continue to tax our jobs overseas and send our money to China – but it’s not funny.

    We have 3 liberals running and only one conservative – and it appears that the U.S. is going to have a liberal yet again…..

    Mark my words. This country is doomed.

  • A SurveyUSA poll released the day before yesterday that in Washington State, McCain led Huckabee 54% to 25% with a margin of error 4.8% and 10% undecided. They had Obama with a 50-45 edge (3% MOE and 6% undecided). To be fair, they did predict that more Obama supporters would actually bother to vote in a caucus. But for those who think that polls are snapshots, I would argue they are more like blind man’s sketches.

  • This development shows that, even as the GOP has a default nominee, they have not united the three factions of their coalition. That’s an inherent advantage that we have this year– we knew from the start that, no matter which of the Republicans got the nomination, he would not be a figure who united the party. Bush was so dangerous to our campaigns because he embodied all three aspects of Republicanism– bible-thumping, warmongering, and money. Right now, the money guy (Romney) is out, and the warmonger guy (McCain) is the presumptive nominee. But supporters of the religion guy (Huck) are not happy about it. Frankly, neither are supporters of the money guy; my suspicion is that Huck’s victories last night were reinforced by the fact that many would-be Romney backers sat on their hands instead of going out to vote. So, for all the talk about McCain’s inevitability, there is not even a fraction of enthusiasm for him within his party, the way there was for Bush.

    By my conjecture, there is only one possible way we’ll blow this chance: nominating Hillary. Conservatives out there in Red America may not get revved up about voting for McCain. But you can bet they’ll be up in arms and going to the polls in droves to vote against Hillary. Is it fair that they hate her in such a reflexive, non-insightful way? Of course not. But, life isn’t fair (if it were, Gore would be president), and people don’t vote with their heads. They vote with their guts. And the guts of too many red-staters start to retch when Hillary’s name is mentioned. That phenomenon would result either in a McCain victory (which this country cannot afford,) or a 51% squeaker for Hillary, after which a charged-up Republican party re-takes the Congress at the midterm.

    But, to get back to Point A, last night’s results reveal the fault lines in the GOP coalition. Now is our chance to shake them open even further, and win big!

  • I’d love to see Mittens throw his delegates to Huckleberry. I realize the Huckster doesn’t have much in the way of resources, but McCain’s not fat with cash either. If Huck had his and Romney’s delegates, he’d still be in an uphill battle. But it might be enough to rally Das Base to come out and vote for him in what otherwise is a lost cause. Should that happen, the repub race could regain some of it’s former hilarity.

  • McCain needs to be dethroned. He is HATED viscerally by a large percentage of the base that will NEVER vote for him regardless of his new rhetoric: “I am a conservative”, “I am a Reagan foot soldier”, “I am a war hero”. The Republican Party machine has annointed McCain as the next in line before the MAJORITY of voters had a chance to learn the candidates. What kind of process is this primary voting when the Governor of Texas (Rick Perry) calls a candidate and asks him to drop out before their state primary so there will be no competition? Does it mean anything to GOP voters in Texas that their governor has annointed McCain before they can say anything? This has been going on throughout this disgraceful primary season with arm twisting and back doors deals and slews of endorsements from the same big Republican machine…the same one that screwed up in the last election. They just don’t get it. Think we will hold our nose and vote for who they annoint as next in line. After the last election where we lost seats in Congress, their response was to pander to Latino voters and elect Mel Martinez. Good grief..that was another slam at the base. Another open borders, pro-amnesty, liberal Senator. Time to dump McCain or vote for a Third party candidate. McCain is more dangerous than Bush (more stubborn and a worse temper). He is also showing signs of senility in his speeches and does not look healthy. Let’s resurrect Romney or vote for Lou Dobbs. NOTHING that McCain says now will undo his actions and eye-poking at conservatives for the last two decades in Congress. If they Republican machine wants to keep their blinders on and remain in a state of denial, they will get what they deserve…. a liberal loser.

  • #6: “Mark my words. This country is doomed.”

    Okay, your words have been marked. Happy now?

    I don’t believe our country is doomed. But if it is the cause is certainly not “3 liberals running and only one conservative”.

    By most measures this country is off the chart in conservatism. In comparison with other industrial nations, more of us claim religious practice (church attendance) and belief (god’s intervention in our daily affairs, the efficacy of prayer, devils). Our conservatives believe the Biblical creation myth, and don’t believe or even know about the evidence for evolution. And it isn’t just Santa Claus for grownups — freedom to believe — either. There are consequences to our peculiar theology: opposition to abortion (i.e., support for forced pregnancy), opposition to stem cell research, opposition to sex education, opposition to public health programs (aka socialized medicine), “under God” in a pledge designed for all Americans many of whom share no such belief, etc., etc.

    Our structural conservatism goes beyond the extent to which religion pervades (or claims to pervade) our social lives. Our forms of government strongly favor conservatism. Outdated monstrosities like the Electoral College, the “old boys club” known as the United State Senate, votes requiring 60 super-majorities (many school bond issues, e.g.), the caucus-primary system itself (instead of a nationwide, direct primary) … all these holdovers from our horse-and-buggy (and patriarchal and plutocratic and slave-holding) past keep us from joining the rest of the civilized world.

    When we lacked the technology which has made “one world” possible, it didn’t matter much. We could sing the national anthem (“rockets red glare, bombs bursting in air”) with the same enthusiasm the French have in their Marseillaise (“they are coming to cut the throats of our sons, our wives”, “may tainted blood water our fields”). We could take pride out hokey governmental institutions (“first Tuesday after the first Monday in November”) just as the English still pride themselves on their monarchy (which is at least pretty on ceremonial occasions).

    But now that we are becoming one world, our built-in conservatism isn’t serving us well. Every month our dollar sinks against the Euro. Nobel prize winners and the winners of the Wolfe, Fields, Gauss, and Abel prizes in mathematics, mostly come from Europe and Asia. Many of our corporations are deserting our shores (granted, their motive is greed rather than international competition). Our students routinely appear woefully ignorant of global geography, politics, history, culture.

    We talk of right-wing and left-wing in this country as though they were at odds with each other. Our TeeVees represent the choices with blue and red (like the Crips and the Bloods). It it weren’t for the racist implications, we’d probably do it even simpler: Black and White. On the world’s scale the viable political extremes in the U.S. occupy a very narrow band, well to the right of center.

    If this country is doomed, as you say it is, it’s the conservatives — and their demonizing of those who disagree with them out of knowledge or compassion or taste — who are responsible.

  • On February 10th, 2008 at 9:42 am, gander said:
    Elections are no joke.
    We can continue to tax our jobs overseas and send our money to China – but it’s not funny.
    We have 3 liberals running and only one conservative – and it appears that the U.S. is going to have a liberal yet again…..
    Mark my words. This country is doomed.

    You do realize Bush and Cheney have been in charge for the last 7 years, right? If those are the main problems you have identified then the last thing you should conclude is that we need more of the same by electing another conservative. Unless you are stupid enough to believe the revisionism that Bush must be a liberal because he has screwed things up so badly, in which case there is no hope for you.

  • Bush is NOT a conservative..He pretended that he was to fool the base then pushed his own liberal agenda….with massive spending, growth of government entitlement programs, pro-amnesty, open-borders globalism philosophy and policies. In short, he did not put Americans first and betrayed us…hence the lowest approval rating in history. So please get it right…Jorge Bush and Juan McCain are NOT CONSERVATIVES…look at actions, not their rhetoric.

  • A Hillary nomination is a recipe for a McCain victory. She will provide the unity to the Rethugs they can’t muster for themselves, although many of them will fall into line behind McCain as they always do. Party uber alles.

    Driving McCain to the right, having him pick two-buck-Huck as his running mate, and adopting most of Bush’s economic policies may rally the right somewhat, but drive away the independents and moderates who don’t want to vote for Hillary. Under those circumstances if she is the candidate the middle will be in limbo. So either the far right slimeballs stay home because they can’t bring themselves to vote for McCain no matter what he does, or the middle splits its vote, or stays home, because they can’t stand Hillary and reject McCain because he’s now too far to the right.

    It has to be Obama.

  • We can continue to tax our jobs overseas,,, We have 3 liberals running… This country is doomed

    I’m trying to figure out what this means.

    I guess we conflate the right’s favored bogeyman, tax policy, with an unrelated phenomenon, foreign outsourcing, and then blame both on “liberals,” who are apparently responsible for everything despite being out of power, and we also claim either McCain or Huckabee (can’t tell which from the post) are “liberals.”

    A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

  • To ‘gander’ – ‘dog’ – ‘Marge’ …

    Please read, or re-read Ed Stephan’s post for clarification.

    When conservatives vote for their Senator, US Representative, and President – especially when they run on a so called ‘conservative’ platform – do you really believe that once they are in power, and they don’t follow exactly every single conservative cause, they can no longer be considered conservative?

    The vast majority of conservatives voted for George Bush in 2000, and again in 2004. Now that the country is in ruins, you would like to claim that he’s not a conservative. How convenient. A conservative President has shown once again, how the conservative ideology destroys the country, and there could only be one explanation: he could possibly not be a conservative, he must be a closet liberal. Problem solved. Any conservative politician who screws up is automatically labeled as a liberal. That certainly makes it a lot easier, that way you never have to take responsibility for your own destructive actions.

    McCain is a perfect case in point. Surrounding the 2000 elections McCain spoke the truth
    – By calling Fallwell and Robertson what they are/were: “Agents of intolerance”
    – Was reasonable by not wanting to change the Roe vs Wade decision
    – Wanted to balance the budget
    – Was against Bush’s irresponsible tax cuts
    – the list goes on…

    McCain was one of the more sensible conservatives, who understood that the world is actually evolving, and that in order for conservativism to survive it had to accept some ‘novel’ 21st century ideas. Obviously that didn’t work very well for him, hence the 2000 election of the conservative movement’s wet dream: President Bush’s ‘compassionate conservativism’

    It is quite the double standard used by conservatives:
    – President Bush, as a conservative President is denounced as not being a true conservative, because he pretty much made a mess of our beloved America. Conservatives want to completely forget that Bush ran on their very own ticket and they absolutely loved it. It was going to be the moral (conservative) majority. Finally we were going to experience the one party system, the way it was meant to be. Etc.. That didn’t turn out very well. Obviously when conservatives are in power, and screw it up, we really want to completely forget about it, or blame everybody else.
    – When McCain starts flip-flopping, and completely reverses course, by expressing his love for the Bush policies, wanting to reverse Roe vs Wade, amend the constitution, etc. In short, he’s running further to the right than any other candidate in the field (not counting Ron Paul), and promises to do everything the conservative movements desires, then all of a sudden, that is simply not enough, because he betrayed the conservative movement in the past.

    So… In Bush’s case, conservatives denounce him for not being a true conservative, because it is embarrassing to see what he has done to the country. In McCain’s case he’s denounced as a conservative because he had the audacity to call some conservatives on their bullshit.

    Silly me.. all this explaining and looking for the double standard. None of that matters. There’s only one standard: You pronounce a standard bearer –> He takes responsibility for trying to turn the country more conservative than it already is –> When things in our beloved America start going wrong –> throw the standard bearer under the bus –> Denounce him as a conservative and declare him a closet liberal –>Anoint the next moron (I mean conservative) standard bearer –> Repeat into oblivion.

    Pretty much describes the Republican party, don’t you agree?

    Too bad you don’t like it… Nobody did it to you. You did it all by yourselves.

  • Bush is a liberal? Das Base has left reality in the rear view mirror. Tax breaks for the rich, opposition to health care for children, pandering to fundamentalist Christians, massive military spending and public policy set by corporate CEOs sounds so very liberal to me.

    I beginning to actually believe what many describe as ‘conservatism’ is actually a mental illness or defect. They have an inability to perceive much of reality, and can’t seem to retain what little manages to seep in. They’re against ‘liberals’ because in their view, liberal is simply the culmination of what they are angry about – without regard for it’s source. As a result, these people are unreachable by any measure of logic or reason. They are blind to 90% of the world around them, yet cannot remember the other 10% for very long. They are up in arms against what they term ‘liberal’ but that definition changes by the hour. Such a mental defect is the only way to arrive at the conclusion that Bush is a liberal.

  • OOPS pushed the send button too soon

    again Marge – dog – gander…

    Or.. Are you admitting that ALL conservatives are hypocrites, because they run on a conservative platform and once in power they do something completely different? When was the last time you said one thing and you ended up doing something different? Does that make you a liberal?

    I’d say, that was probably the last time you used your brain properly. As mentioned by JimBOB: a mind is a terrible thing to waste. We all know that the truth has a liberal bias. Trust me, it doesn’t really hurt when you use your brain to do some ‘critical thinking’ Sure it is scary at first, because new possibilities appear, but you’ll get used to it. You might actually enjoy it. I recommend a 12-step program. Step # 1 being very important. (Hint: Acknowledge that you have a problem)

  • Doesn’t the fact that the GOP stopped tallying at 87% of the votes, with McCain ahead, mean that Huckabee won a squeaker? Why did they stop unless they’re stuffing ballots? What’s taking so long?

  • The Caped Composer @ 8

    By my conjecture, there is only one possible way we’ll blow this chance: nominating Hillary.

    …But, life isn’t fair (if it were, Gore would be president), and people don’t vote with their heads. They vote with their guts.

    I was never a political person, i.e. I was never really into politics until the attacks of 911. Prior to 911, two political events had briefly (as in a ‘Blink-of-the-Eye’) caught my attention – 1) Had wondered why Clinton was elected over Bush “41” in 1992. 2) Had wondered why, here in Florida that whilst on the way home from work (on election day, around 4:00 PM EST) that ABC’s top-of-the-hour radio news was saying that Gore was the projected winner, and later had wondered what all the hullabaloo was about in regards to Bush “43” actually winning the 2000 election. Then, on September 11, 2001, America was attacked, and the broadcast news (ABC, NBC and CBS) were all asking – “where is Bush?” Why doesn’t Bush “address the nation?” Dumb and insulting questions, since America had just been attacked and I lost all respect for MSM that day.

    Caped Composer, you have been duped by the Democratic Party and their MSM.

    ..And as one pundit so succinctly stated, the Democrat Party is as it always has been, the party of the four S’s: Slavery, Secession, Segregation and now Socialism.

    ..Today, Democrats, in pursuit of their socialist agenda, are fighting to keep blacks poor, angry and voting for Democrats. Examples of how egregiously Democrats act to keep blacks in poverty are numerous.

    .. Democrats have been running our inner-cities for the past 30-40 years, and blacks are still complaining about the same problems. Over $7 trillion dollars have been spent on poverty programs since President Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty with little, if any, impact on poverty. Diabolically, every election cycle, Democrats blame Republicans for the deplorable conditions in the inner-cities, then incite blacks to cast a protest vote against Republicans.

    Those are quotes from a NBR article – “Why Martin Luther King, Jr. was a Republican”. (BTW, before MLK, there was Archibald J. Carey, Jr. and he has some great quotes also.)

    Obama promises “change”, like many Democrat politicians before him, but words are cheap. Basically, the Democratic Party is worried about having to face McCain with only Obama or Hillary to place against him, and they should be worried.

  • Beautifully written rebuttals to the Right-wingers, Bruno and Joe W.

    Keep up the good work!

    And, I’d like to add, “tax cuts”. The Republicans LOVE tax cuts. BUT, how are tax cuts going to pay for their 2,000 mile border fence? And the endless war in Iraq? I’m not even mentioning social programs, because these conservatives don’t want social programs.

    But, the War and the Fence?

  • To Bruno…can’t waste my breathe anymore explaining the obvious but to put it out there again: George Bush opposed critical issues that were very important to conservatives. Highlighting some of his conservative policies does not undo those that were blatently offensive to the core such as massive spending, growth of government entitlement programs, pro-amnesty, open-borders globalism, etc. This ties with Bush’s poor approval rating among conservatives. So yes, many politicians are hypocrites who say the magic words to get them elected but their actions tell a different story. That is why McCain will not win or get the support of the base. He as proven himself to oppose many core conservative values by his ACTIONS and is viewed as a liar and a panderer at this point. Your values don’t change regardless of what you think the party should stand for. If you want to call Bush and McCain conservatives, then go ahead…make my day… live in a state of denial and cheer for your candidate.

  • We gave conservatives the keys to the car (all three branches of government) and they wrecked it. Any rational adult can see that. Of course, these people deny evolution, so I guess “rational” doesn’t apply.

  • Marge @ 23

    That is why McCain will not win or get the support of the base.

    He’ll get plenty of support from the Republican base, e.g. former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton endorsed McCain for President yesterday. Whackos like Ann Coulter may be a little slower coming around, but even she will eventually support McCain.

  • Hey, CB I haven’t seen the poll counts, but perhaps the McCain supporters figured he’s got it all wrapped up and don’t feel the need to go out and vote, while those supporting Huckabee or the others are still trying to make a point.

  • Wow, so all these people show up denying they voted for Bush, or that Bush is a conservative Repub?

    Good luck with that!

    Who are they going to vote for after Bush embraces McCain and McCain wins the Repub nomination?

    Four more years of Bush?

    Why not vote Dem? It’s certainly got to be better than four more years of worst President ever.

  • Keep in mind in Washington…..there is 12.5% of the votes unaccounted for……this is being looked into at the moment…Maybe Huckabee won this one also..

  • Marge, you are full of it. Bush is a conservative. Deal with it.

    He is a *corrupt* conservative, I’ll grant you that. But he is merely Reagan taken to the logical conclusion. Preemptive wars of aggression, tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, undermining of the social safety net, privitizing everything, massive deficit spending, pretending government is the problem, and on and on and on.

    The only difference between Bush Jr. and Reagan is that Reagan was smart enough to know when to back down. After the 1983 bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut, Reagan cut and ran. When Gorbachev indicated he wanted to talk, Reagan stopped the “evil empire” rhetoric.

    You can claim Bush is a twit. You can claim Bush is corrupt. Those are true. You can *not* claim that Bush isn’t a conservative. He is a conservative. Deal with it.

  • huckabee is far more articulate than mccain and has expressed his intent to stay in the race until the delegate count is reached. huckabee has also said he doesn’t think mccain would pick him for VP, so he may as well stick around. IMHO the longer huck stays in the race the more apparent it becomes that the wrong man in their party grabbed the golden ring.

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