A lesson in spending political capital

After the election, talk of Bush’s “political capital” was all the rage. We finally had a new political buzz phrase, which according to Karl Rove and the rest of the “strategery” team, would be key to the debate over privatizing Social Security.

The basic premise behind all of the “political capital” talk was the notion that Bush, as a political leader, had built up enough popularity and credibility that he could take on a controversial issue — which would almost certainly lessen that popularity — but maintain a strong political position.

This was supposed to be vital to seeing Bush through the Social Security fight. Rove & Co. would invest Bush’s presidency in an unpopular idea, and accepting the accompanying risk.

But the funny thing about investing “political capital” is that leaders have to build up a reservoir of popularity they can afford to lose, otherwise political support can fall to perilous levels — as Bush is finding out now.

Although President George W. Bush has been traveling the country touting a new plan to overhaul the Social Security system, campaigning in 15 states over six weeks, the majority of Americans remain unswayed, according to the latest Newsweek poll. Only one-third of all Americans (33 percent) approve of his proposal to create investment accounts under Social Security, the poll found, while 59 percent disapprove….

[T]he president’s overall approval rating has slipped below the 50 percent mark, his lowest score since being sworn in again in January. Forty-five percent of all Americans approve of the way he is doing his job, a five-point dip from early February; 48 percent disapprove, up six points. Bush’s approval numbers have fallen the most among the demographic at whom his Social Security overhaul is targeted at: just 43 percent of 18-29 year olds approve of his performance (down from 56 percent a month ago).

This probably isn’t what the White House had in mind.

As it stands, Bush’s approval rating is the lowest it’s been in nearly a year and the second lowest in a Newsweek poll since Bush’s presidency began in 2001.

And as for Bush’s political capital, it’s starting to look like he never really had any to spare in the first place. He was elected by the narrowest margin for an incumbent ever, his party would have lost House seats on Election Day were it not for a legally dubious re-redistricting stunt in Texas, and he was inaugurated with the weakest popular support of any second-term president since the dawn of modern polling. Indeed, while presidents routinely receive a post-election “bounce” and head into their second terms with fairly strong support, Bush’s popularity slipped after the election, right around the time he started talking about Social Security. It’s been downhill for Bush since.

In fact, it’s also worth noting that Bush’s slide has affected popular opinion on issues that have nothing to do with Social Security.

His approval ratings are negative on the federal budget deficit (29 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove), health care (34 percent to 56 percent), the economy (42 percent to 51 percent) and the situation in Iraq (41 percent versus 54 percent). And on the heels of a Senate vote to pave the way for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the president’s rating on the environment is also at a low point (41 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove).

Let this be a lesson political-capital investors in the future: you have to start from a position of strength before you start absorbing hits.