Just a couple of days ago, it seemed as if there was an odd dearth of new [tag]poll[/tag]ing numbers available. In light of recent events (the NIE disclosure, [tag]Foley[/tag], [tag]Woodward[/tag], Rice’s July 2001 meeting, George Allen, etc.), much of the political world has been waiting anxiously to see just how bad things have become for B[tag]ush[/tag] and congressional [tag]Republicans[/tag].
The answer: pretty bad. Over the last 48 hours or so, we’ve seen quite a bit of new data. If there’s any good news for the GOP in there, it’s hiding well.
* CNN — The latest CNN poll, which for some inexplicable reason the network kept largely under wraps on its website, shows Bush’s approval rating slipping to 39%. It’s the first time he’s slipped below 40% since June. Moreover, 58% of the public said they believe Bush has deliberately misled the public about progress in Iraq, and 61% said they oppose the war, which matches an all-time high.
* Associated Press-Ipsos — The president’s approval rating has fallen to 38%, while Congress’ approval rating is down to 27%. On the generic ballot question, Dems now lead the GOP by 10, 50% to 40%. Half of likely voters said recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress will be very or extremely important when they cast their vote next month, and by a margin of nearly 2-to-1, voters believe Dems would be better at cleaning up [tag]Washington[/tag].
* Time — According to a Time magazine poll released yesterday, two-thirds of Americans aware of the congressional-page sex scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up — and one quarter of them say the affair makes them less likely to vote for GOP candidates in November. On the generic ballot question, Dems lead the GOP by 15, 54% to 39%. Bush’s approval rating is down to just 36%, while 54% believe he “deliberately misled” Americans about the war.
* Pew Forum — On the generic ballot question, Dems lead the GOP by 13, 51% to 38%. Perhaps more importantly, Dems enjoy big leads on which party “is more concerned with the needs of people like me,” which party “governs in a more honest and ethical way,” and which party is able to “bring about the kind of changes the country needs.” Bush’s approval rating is down to just 37%.
* Wall Street Journal/NBC News — By a 41%-18% margin, Americans say recent news developments have made them less favorable toward continued Republican control of Congress; by 34%-23% they called themselves more favorably inclined toward Democratic control. Even more important is the level of intensity — 51% of Democrats can’t wait to get to the polls in November, while 43% of Republicans are similarly excited.
“No incumbent party wants to run an election on these sorts of issues,” says Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey.
And yet, here we are.