Going back over the last six months, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas hasn’t said much of anything about the nuclear option and was presumed, by nearly everyone, to support the tactic like most other conservative lawmakers. He appeared on “Lou Dobbs Tonight” on CNN a week ago, for example, and though the show dealt with the fight over judicial nominees, when Roberts was interviewed, there wasn’t a single question about his opinion on the anti-filibuster initiative. Presumably, Dobbs assumed he already knew the answer.
In fact, since last November’s elections, the only item I can find showing Roberts having any doubts about the nuclear option is a March 2nd report in Congressional Quarterly listing Roberts as “undecided.” It was something of an anomaly; every other report left him out when listing “on the fence” senators.
It appears, however, that Roberts has far more concerns than he’s let on.
With a showdown over judicial nominees looming, Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas could be one of several pivotal Republicans to oppose stripping the Senate of its traditional power to filibuster.
Roberts expressed doubt about the “nuclear option,” which would end a long-running Democratic threat — to filibuster seven of President Bush’s nominees for the federal bench — by changing long-standing Senate rules.
“What goes around comes around,” Roberts said in an interview last week, worried that the rule change could someday come back to haunt his party.
That’s no minor observation. With a likely floor fight looming, and the margin for error for both sides down to zero, Roberts is an important new wild card in the overall vote count.
In fact, now seems as good a time as any to update the list of targeted senators. Remember, unless some unexpected compromise is reached, Republicans will need 50 votes to execute the nuclear option. Dems have 45 votes, so they’ll need six Republicans to break ranks.
* GOP Senators who will vote against the nuclear option: John McCain (Ariz.), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), Olympia Snowe (Maine)
* GOP Senators who are leaning in the Dems’ direction: Susan Collins (Maine), Arlen Specter (Pa.)
* GOP lawmakers who are undecided but seem uncomfortable with the radical nature of the nuclear option: John Warner (Va.), Pat Roberts (Kan.)
* GOP lawmakers who are undecided but aren’t saying much of anything to tip their hands: Chuck Hagel (Neb.), Gordon Smith (Ore.)
* GOP lawmakers who are often listed as “on the fence,” but who have told Frist they’re with him: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), John Sununu (N.H.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Chuck Lugar (Ind.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.)
* GOP lawmakers who are telling anyone who will listen that they’d like to see Bill Frist strike some kind of compromise and avoid this mess altogether: All of the above
Are there three votes somewhere outside McCain, Chafee, and Snowe? We’ll probably find out in a couple of days.