A post-Zarqawi bounce?

June 13, 2006

A few days ago, a top Republican campaign aide told Newsweek that the party expected Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s death to pay some political dividends. “When you kill some bastard terrorist with a long Arab name — they get that right away,” the aide said. “So, yeah, this is the kind of thing … [tag]voters[/tag] respond to.”

So, was the aide right? Did voters respond to the killing of a “bastard terrorist with a long Arab name”? It depends on whom you ask. For example, a new [tag]CBS[/tag] News poll shows no bounce at all. In fact, just the opposite.

Half [of the public] thinks the level of violence in Iraq will be unchanged by [tag]Zarqawi[/tag]’s death, while 30 percent say it will actually lead to more attacks against U.S. forces…. Fifty-five percent of Americans still say the war in Iraq is going badly for the United States, while an overwhelming majority, 82 percent, describe the situation in Iraq as a civil war between Iraqis. […]

Zarqawi’s killing hasn’t helped President Bush with the public, either. His overall job approval rating remains just 33 percent — down slightly from 35 percent last month — while 60 percent disapprove.

So, it’s across-the-board dissatisfaction from the public, right? Yes, until you look at the [tag]USA Today[/tag]/[tag]Gallup[/tag] results.

The new [tag]poll[/tag] found that 48% believe the United States probably or definitely will win the war, up from 39% in April. It also found that 47% believe things are going well in Iraq, up from 38% in March.

The survey, taken Friday to Sunday and released Monday, also showed Bush’s approval rating going up to 38% from 36% earlier this month and an all-time low of 31% in May.

The USAT/Gallup poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, while the CBS poll was done from Saturday to Sunday. The USAT/Gallup poll had a slightly larger sample and lower margin of error. Which one’s right? Your guess is as good as mine.

Regardless, Ted Galen Carpenter, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, said, “Unless there is clear, sustainable progress in Iraq, these numbers will be just a brief blip.” That sounds right to me. A minor poll bump or not, the U.S. is facing a crisis for which there is no good solution.

And what about today’s story on [tag]Rove[/tag]? Well, it’s hard to imagine “top-aide-was-investigated-but-not-indicted” headlines giving the White House much of a [tag]bounce[/tag].

In the stock market, they call this the dead-cat’s bounce. These little pieces of lift will only serve to tank his rating further down the road.

  • Oh, and as I mentioned before, it’s going to be the economy which really does him in. Just imagine, when that goes down the tubes – no reason he couldnt hit 10%.

  • Well, it’s hard to imagine “top-aide-was-investigated-but-not-indicted” headlines giving the White House much of a bounce.

    I hate to continue to be so cynical, but I’m guessing we’ll more likely see headlines about overzealous Democrats proven wrong or the loose cannon prosecutor with a vindictive side who fails to find his scapegoat.

  • Are people reall so stupid to believe there was one person with a long arab name coordinating and driving all of the violence in Iraq? Some of the speculation I have heard is that Zarquawi was possibly given up by a competitor becaue he was becomming a liability. Sort of a gang land mafia style thing. Turn in your enemies and take over their operations. To me this is like the Queen dying and everyone thinking Great Britian is done for. They replace the Queen with the Prince of Wales and move on. It is all academic since the Prime Minister and Parliment are really running the show.

    I do expect to see Bush on “Best Week Ever” this weekend. Karl Rove off the hook and dead arab all in one week! No place to go but up!

  • Zarqawi’s death, Rove being off the hook, and Bush’s “suprise” visit to Baghdad for a photo op with the new Iraqi Prime Minister are unfortunately going to “turn things around” for Bush a little bit. But I think they’ll do little more than placate some of the disaffected Republican voters. Bush looks a little tougher on Irag and national security. Another photo op trip to the Mexican border, maybe with Bush helping erect a section of fence, and he’s on the road to a “comeback.”

    There are still a lot of issues that can still blow up in Bush’s face at any time. A major hurricane and the government’s continued unpreparedness comes immediately to mind. The real danger is that Democrats will see recent events as “good news” for Bush and become even more unable or unwilling to criticize Bush and Republicans. Now’s the time they should be asking some really uncomfortable questions of Republicans and the Bush administration. Attack, attack, attack! Do not allow the Republicans to tout these “successes” and change the subject.

  • “the loose cannon prosecutor with a vindictive side who fails to find his scapegoat.” – doubtful

    It’s amazing how every Republican prosecutor who turns his attention to the Bushite administration suddenly comes loose from his ropes and becomes a danger to the whole party. Must because only 50% the Republican’ts are crooks and the other 50% are honest.

    Not that the Democrats seem to beat those precentages.

  • Considering that Bush has no intentions to depart Iraq and it appears U.S. soldiers will be there in perpetuity on these super bases, Iraq and all of its negative associations will continue to be an albatross around Bush’s neck …Zarquawi or no Zarquawi.

  • I’m glad too have such an optimistic President. Remember it wasn’t that long ago that former President Ronald Reagan challenged Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin wall. Even many of his advisors thought he was going overboard with the statement but Mr. Reagan stood by his quote. The wall did come down and communism came down with it in less than a decade without a shot being fired between the USA and the Soviet Union.

    President Bush is an optimist and I for one am glad he is our President. Democracy will flourish in Iraq and we will all benefit from it. I think as more and more Iraqis are able to speak freely without fear of de-capitation, you will find them on the side of freedom and democracy vice the side of intimidation and fear.

  • That’s hilarious Zonie, especially all the grammatical errors.

    You “for one”, obviously have nothing useful to do with your time. Perhaps next time you write, you can give some supporting facts as to why democracy will flourish. Perhaps it is true that we will all benefit from this one day, but at what cost? Or does cost benefit not enter your realm of analysis?

    Does it not appear to you that fewer and fewer Iraqis can live without fear of decapitation? Or is that just the media’s fault? Perhaps all we need is some more rhetoric about how things are improving – clearly the rising numbers of deaths, falling oil output, reduced electricity availability, increasing repression of womens rights and economy in recession are too unwieldy for the American public to get their arms around. Better just tell them everything is ok, point to one dead terrorist, and show up for a five hour unannounced photo op. That will do it for sure, ya.

  • So G2000 what are you doing with your time? Surely you are not wasting your time “preaching to the choir” on some liberal blog are you?

    The truth is you are a pessimist…and pessimists accomplish nothing. What a terrible way to live…nothing to be happy about.

    The truth is, you don’t even know what the truth is…The numbers of Americans dying per month in Iraq is falling, Iraqi oil output has passed prewar levels and continues to rise, electricity output is also above prewar levels, women are not required veils in Iraq, and both the Iraqi and American economies are not in recession.

    …and the truth is, I would much rather be associated with optimists instead of pessimistic liberals who whine and complain when they don’t get the indictments they feel they are entitled to!

  • That’s an improvement Zonie. At least youve attempted to substantiate your argument, but of course, it helps to have facts as opposed to falsehoods. But keep working on it. Im glad you can be so optimistic. That will surely save the day!

    And let me ask, do only American lives count in your calculus? The number of Iraqi deaths clearly isnt falling. Furthermore, there is no clear LONG TERM trend in American casualties to support your statement that the number of americans dying per month is falling. It might fall from one month to the next, but then if it rises, you could just as easily argue the other way. You have to just look at the long term trend (Ed Stephan can help you out : http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/USfatalities.html) to see that nothing has changed. But, hey, dont worry about that, you keep spouting what you like, ok?

    On oil output – it was 3 mill bpd before the war. It’s 2 mill bpd now. You do the math. Oh wait, you clearly cant. Or maybe it was this you read :

    ” June 8 – Iraqi petroleum authorities reported Thursday that Iraq had raised its production of crude oil to the level of nearly 1.95 million barrels per day by increasing the output in the southern oil fields for the first time in ten months.”

    Let’s see 1.95…take away, um…2.0 uhhhh. I dunno. Must be rising. Yes, I read the word rising. Of course , its rising.

    And, did I say anything about the US economy being in recession now? No, I said it is heading there. Iraq is so f-ed up it’s beyond recession. I’d call it a depression.

    Perhaps women arent required to wear veils, but try asking how life has changed for them. It’s not gotten better since theyve moved away from secularism.

    Anyway, go ahead and keep living in your dream world. No amount of reality can get people like you to wake up.

  • Don’t feed the trolls. You only have to look at Huffpo to learn what happens when you do. Many of their threads are utterly chaotic.

    Is zonie bogie reincarnated? No, sounds a little different.

    Actually, the CBS poll does show a modest bounce for Bush, in the long term outlook for Iraq. Now 60% think we’ll prevail. Last month it was 55%. That’s really quite optimistic. But I think we will, too. We’re going to get that oil, come hell or high water. And they are going to become a “democracy” – code word for capitalistic economy – so that American and other foreign investors will own everything they have of value.

  • If you want to have fun pimp-slapping trolls, head on over to Oliver Willis and join the fracas. It’s fun.

    I’d rather just ignore them here. Not always in the mood for that, and I love the non-troll commentary here.

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