Salon’s Eric Boehlert noted today that Bush’s approval ratings heading into next month’s inauguration are among the “worst of any president in modern-day history.”
Republicans like to brag about the sweeping mandate that President Bush received on Election Day. But as he prepares for his second term, Bush approaches Inauguration Day with historically weak job-approval ratings, according to a series of new opinion polls. Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in public sentiment between now and Jan. 20, Bush will be sworn in to office with the lowest job-approval rating — barely 50 percent — of any president in the last 80 years, or since modern-day presidential polling began.
“It’s striking how weak he is right now,” says presidential historian Richard Shenkman, editor of George Mason University’s History News Network. “You’d have to go back to Woodrow Wilson to find a president who was reelected in a position as weak as this one. There’s been no euphoria around Bush’s win.”
Boehlert has a point. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, which has tended in recent years to show Bush with stronger support than other national polls, says Bush is slipping badly.
* Approval rating — Bush’s approval rating has slipped to a combined 48%, while his disapproval rating has climbed to a combined 50%. When broken down by degree of approval and disapproval, a plurality (38%) “disapprove strongly” of Bush’s performance as president (whereas only 27% “approve strongly”).
* Economy — A majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy, 51% to 46%.
* Iraq — Americans support for Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq has disappeared. The Post/ABC data showed a stunning 57% now disapprove of Bush’s performance with the war.
* Domestic issues — 52% disapprove of the way Bush is handling Social Security (only 38% approve), while 56% disapprove of the way he’s handling health care (only 37% approve).
* War casualties — Americans’ patience with the death toll in Iraq has worn out. Now, 70% believe there have been an unacceptable number of casualties, as opposed to 27% who believe the number is acceptable.
This kind of popular support, or lack thereof, is likely to have consequences.
As long as Republicans in Congress believe the country has endorsed Bush’s presidency and agenda — and as a so-called “mandate” — there will likely be less hesitation to advance the White House wish list. But if lawmakers believe the nation has soured on Bush, Republicans, who, unlike Bush, will have to seek re-election soon, may be far more cautious.
It’s also worth noting Boehlert’s observation that this historically unusual, even for presidents elected in very narrow contests.
It might seem natural for a president who just won a bitter and exceedingly close election to suffer from soft poll numbers, considering so many people voted against him. But Americans, up until now, have traditionally rallied around the Election Day winner, no matter how close the vote. For instance, in 1948, after Truman unexpectedly won reelection by edging out Republican Thomas Dewey, his weak job-approval ratings suddenly shot up to 69 percent. (Like Bush, Truman won reelection despite having a Gallup job approval rating below 50 percent just prior to the election.)
Following the 1960 election, President John Kennedy, winning an even closer race over Nixon, enjoyed an even larger post-election bump in the polls. After just one month in office, Kennedy saw his job-approval rating jump to 72 percent.
There may be a temptation to think that polls no longer matter now that Bush has won a second term and won’t face voters again. That’s a mistake. Popular support will have an effect on Bush’s ability to lead. If Bush is sworn in as the “least popular president to ever take the oath of office,” it has an impact.
At this point, he’s struggling.