A weak poll position

Looking back over the last couple of months, I really can’t remember the last time I saw polling data that Republicans could find encouraging. Since the inauguration, if not slightly before it, public support for Republican officials and their agenda has slipped — and then slipped again.

This week is no exception. The latest Harris poll shows American support for the president’s policies in Iraq falling to an all-time low.

American support for President Bush’s Iraq policies has fallen to its lowest level since March 2003, when Harris Interactive first measured public sentiment on this issue.

The latest Harris poll shows 61% of U.S. adults believe Mr. Bush is doing “poor” or “only fair” with regards to Iraq, while 37% of U.S. adults say he’s doing an “excellent” or “pretty good” job. Support has declined since April, when 56% of those polled said they didn’t approve of his handling of Iraq, while 42% approved.

In the same poll, respondents were asked if taking military action against Iraq was the right thing to do. A plurality of 48% said it was not, the highest percentage to say so since Harris began polling on Iraq over two years ago. Only 39% said the believe the war was the right call.

Then there’s the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which, if anything, is even more discouraging for the Republicans running Washington.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that disapproval of Congress’s performance is higher than it has been since 1994, the year voters swept Democrats out of power on Capitol Hill. Americans have grown gloomier about the nation’s direction, the economy and Iraq, and by 65%-17% they say Congress doesn’t share their priorities.

“If you’re a member of Congress … you’d better be looking over your shoulder,” says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. His Republican counterpart, Bill McInturff, adds that a particular concern for incumbents looking to 2006 is unhappiness among senior citizens, a group that disproportionately turns out to vote in midterm elections.


Across the board, Americans are just unhappy with what they’re seeing from their government.

* Bush approval rating — Only 47% approve of the job the president is doing.

* Bush on the issues — On the three big policy areas — handling the economy, handling foreign policy generally and handling Iraq — a majority of Americans disapprove of Bush’s handling of all three.

* Congress’ approval rating — Just 33% approve of lawmakers’ performance while 51% disapprove, nearly matching the 32%-56% rating Congress received six months before the “Republican revolution” of 1994.

* Tom DeLay — By 52%-12%, Americans say Congress should investigate the Texan’s travel and relationships with lobbyists. Though just over half of Americans don’t know who Mr. DeLay is or have a neutral opinion, the rest view him negatively by a two-to-one margin.

* Privatizing Social Security — Americans by 56%-36% call it a “bad idea” to allow workers to invest Social Security contributions in the stock market.

* Control of Congress — Just 42% of Americans say their representative deserves to be re-elected, while a 45% plurality calls it time for someone new. When Americans are asked which party they want to control Congress after the 2006 elections, Democrats hold a 47%-40% edge — the party’s best showing since the Journal/NBC survey began asking that question in 1994.

And my very favorite tidbit of information? The disappointment among self-identified Republicans about Republicans in Washington. The percentage of Americans who believe Congress shares their priorities is down to a stunning 17% — but the biggest drop was seen among those who consider themselves Republicans. Likewise, support of the Republican Congress by Republican voters has dropped by 11 percentage points to 45%.

This isn’t just entertaining number-crunching; polls like these have a real effect — Dems feel empowered to take on a majority the public is rejecting and Republicans start pointing fingers at each other while trying to figure out why they’re failing so badly.

Of course, if this data was coming out in October 2006 instead of May 2005, I’d really be giddy. Instead, it’s just a morale-booster.

The few moderate & astute republicans left in Congress must be going out of their minds. Poll info like this can only send chills down their backs.

Yes – you’re right; a nice morale booster for now. While on one hand, I would like the bad polling to continue, on the other, in a small way, I just wish that for the sake of the country and true business that is not being attended to, the collective representatives/senators shake themselves (themselfs?) and get back to effective work.

  • Steven Duffy Smith

    Watch out. The Comment Grammar Cops are out in force lately. (I live in constant fear of them.)

  • You forgot one other informal “poll” of Americans on the Iraq war–the military recruiting shortfall.

  • By later summer 2006 the Republican noise machine will have discovered that some democratic congressman’s second cousin once didn’t pay a parking ticket, and the resulting “Democrat Scofflaw” scandal will be on all the cable networks 24-7. Then, come election time, it’ll turn out that all the close races “miraculously” were won by the Republicans by 1% electronic ballot-counting margins. After the election we’ll get a wave of analysis (seconded on Fox by Joe Leiberman) that Democrats need to do a better job of paying all their taxes, and the new incoming congress will make it a priority to boost enforcement on tax collection, but of course in spite of the fact that the entire IRS enforcement staff will have been replaced by recruits from the Heritage Foundation, we’ll be assured that enforcement will remain strictly non-partisan. Subsequent reports that 98% of all audits are now being conducted on registered Democrats will be given only minor play in the media.

    After the last election, I was about 90% sure the thing was fixed. If the Dems don’t sweep the next midterms, I’ll be closer to 100%.

  • I would feel a lot better w/this info if the press would start doing their job. Looks like there might be a backlash over the Newsweek story (ie: press growing balls), because if the press just started doing 50% of what they did during Clinton’s years in the WH, we’re looking at a landslide in 2006.

  • I think Bush’s TRUE approval rating is around 30%, or even less if you ask only Americans, leaving out the Confederacy.

  • Does it really matter what Bush’s poll numbers are? The Repubs have the power to do whatever they want. Now if these numbers were there last November, then maybe it would matter. Then again, I am not certain that the last election was on the up and up as seen by so much evidence to the opposite in the state of Ohio.

    My point is: The Repubs will and can do whatever they want. And if they have to they will just cheat like always.

    Americans will rue the day that Bush got a second term.

  • I totally agree with jimBOB. My family sacrificed a lot during the last election and after running around Cleveland with ACT, I know the fix was in in Ohio! Unless we can get some control over how the ballots are counted and who counts them, I am no longer impressed with poll numbers or promises from democratic Washington insiders, like Kerry, that all the votes will be counted. No matter the dissatisfaction of the voter, these scoundrels are gonna keep flipping counts, throwing out votes and destroying this country. I am really angry and frightened.

  • See above comments from Laura and jimBOB—polls don’t mean shit. The ONLY issue that counts is who counts the votes in November. As long as we let people like Katherine Harris and Kenny Blackwell run our elections, the rethugs will keep “winning” them no matter what else happens. Common sense electoral reform—Paper ballots hand counted by randomly chosen volunteers–
    is what we should insist on.If we’d had real electoral reform 5 years ago we’d now be in the second Gore administration instead of the Iraqi quagmire.

  • I agree with Drew. If people don’t rise up and demand honest elections which include verifiable proof that a vote is as it was originally intended, then we can stew around about how we can strengthen our party and it doesn’t mean anything. The Repubs. can select whomever they choose to bring into office. The fallacy for them is they’re all so greedy, they may not be able to agree upon one person per position. Is that the only thing we can hope for?? Elisabeth

  • I agree with Cathy, Laura, Drew and Elisabeth. Until we can wrest control of who counts the votes away from the Republicans, Democrats will never again win a presidential election in this country.

    All one need do is look at all Bush’s poll numbers since taking office to make us question how it was he was “elected” both times.

    Rather than wringing our hands about the Republican party, we need to
    be working to ensure we enact a verifiable way to count the votes
    in the 2008 presidential election – and that does NOT mean those
    e-voting machines built and serviced by Republican companies.

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