A whole lot of number-three men

December 3, 2005

I don’t doubt that Hamza Rabia was a dangerous terrorist, and I have every confidence that his death marks a significant development in going after al Queda, but really, how many “number-three men” can one terrorist network have?

The operational commander of al-Qaida and possibly the No. 3 official in the terrorist organization, Hamza Rabia, was killed early Thursday morning by a CIA missile attack on a safehouse in Pakistan, officials told NBC News.

By one count, Rabia appears to be the sixth “number-three man” in al Queda to have been captured or killed since 9/11, following:

* Abu Faraj al-Libbi
* Saif al-Adel
* Khalid Sheikh Mohammed
* Mohammed Sheikh Mohammed
* [a] senior operational leader, who gave Faris his orders… identified in court documents as ‘C-2’

That’s a whole lot of number three’s, isn’t it?

Maybe the number four guy moves up to number three after the previous number three is bumped off?

  • The numbering system used here is a hell of a lot more subjective than, say, the highly subjective numbering system used in the 2000 Florida vote count or a Diebold voting machines tally.

  • That’s a whole lot of number three’s, isn’t it?

    No, it’s just a whole lot of number two.

  • Maybe the number four guy moves up to number three after the previous number three is bumped off?

    That might be the case. If it is, then there should be list in existence prior to there death or capture which lists them as number 3. The US put out a list of the Top 22 Terrorist in 2001 and Rabia is not on the list. Further, the list doen’t give the terrorist an organizational rank. The FBI maintains a list of the Most Wanted Terrorists. Again Rabia is not on it.

    Therefore, let’s assume that it is pr gimmick. Why then do they choose to list the most recent kill or capture as number 3 and not number 2 or number 4? My guess is that everyone knows, or at least could easily find out, that Ayman al-Zawahiriis is Bin Laden’s right hand man, since this has been widely publicized. (Do a Google search on Bin Laden’s right hand man.) This makes number 3 the first place on the list, if one exists, occupied by an unknown. Hence if you want to show that you are making progress by eliminating Al Qaeda leadership, you can slip the most recent kill in at number 3 and not be contradicted, that is until a pattern begins to emerge. But it is more difficult to convince the public that a pattern exists than it is to show a flat out contradiction of facts.
    Therefore there can be some confidence that the pr will work, at least until it becomes absurd.

  • I joked elsewhere today that Al Qaeda’s strength as an organization derives from the fact that every member of the organization occupies #3 on the org chart.

  • When Al Quaida Human Resources Department fills the number three position, they also fill seven new Virgin positions. (so to speak). Number 3 is a dangerous position but you are offered lifetime tenure.

  • It’s always reminds me of when we used
    to ballyhoo the knocking off or capturing of
    a drug kingpin. Doesn’t change a thing.
    Strictly propaganda, assuming even that
    it’s true.

  • It seems we’ve gotten several #2’s as well. I don’t remember capture/killing any # 4’s or up. Near as I can tell, al qaeda is comprised of
    Osama bin Laden – #1
    A bunch of #2s
    with the rest being #3.

  • I am not an expert on these matters, but it’s a slow Saturday for me so I thought I kill time doing a little time Googling these things.

    A Google search on Al Qaeda’s number two will produce two different types of hit. The first are references to the still at large Ayman al-Zawahiriis. The second are references to Abu Azzam al-Iraqi (a.k.a. Abdullah Najim Abdullah Mohamed Al-Jawari) who was described as Al Qaeda’s number two man in Iraq when he was kill this past September. This claim too was met by skepticism, as you will see if you follow the link..

    For the record, I was listening to NPR’s ATC earlier and Rabai was described as being in Al Qaeda’s top five. Perhaps ridicule from the left has begun to have an effect.

    Picking up on Dale’s comment perhaps Al Qaeda’s HR department recruits people by promising them that they be number 3 in the organization. Kinda like WalMart calling it sales people Associates. … sounds important anyway.

  • The network’s structure has shifted from the hierarchy it was in Afghanistan to a combination of hierarchy and John Robb’s open source configureation.

    The finance branch is probably still a hierarchy but the paramilitary arm has shifted to a horizontal configuration. That means that the literally hundreds if not thousands of cells operating in Iraq are operating independently of one another in an effort to gain funding to continue their attacks. They are constantly innovating in order to gain more funding to blow up more “bad” guys.

    The only link these cells have is funding. And that’s who we should/or are targeting.

    Killing high value targets is designed to decapacitate an organization. If Rabai was participating in the branch of Al Qaeda that has remained hierarchical then his removal was important.

    If he was involved in end operations then his loss is of very little relevance.

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