About that $300 million battery bounty…

The “gas-tax holiday” proposal was a bust. The coastal drilling plan is a fraud. Anything else in John McCain’s bag of tricks in the way of an energy policy? Actually, yes.

In the 18th century the British offered a £20,000 prize to anyone who figured out how to calculate longitude. More recently, Netflix offered a million dollars for improving movie recommendations on its Web site. Now Senator John McCain is suggesting a new national prize: He said here Monday that if elected president he would offer $300 million to anyone who could build a better car battery. […]

“I further propose we inspire the ingenuity and resolve of the American people,” Mr. McCain said, “by offering a $300 million prize for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars.”

He said the winner should deliver power at 30 percent of current costs. “That’s one dollar, one dollar, for every man, woman and child in the U.S. — a small price to pay for helping to break the back of our oil dependency,” he said.

Yesterday, the Obama campaign responded quickly by pointing out McCain’s consistent opposition to investments in renewable energy sources, and his Senate votes against improving fuel efficiency standards.

But even if we put that aside, is there anything to this X Prize-style approach to policy making? Or is this another gimmick?

This afternoon in Nevada, Barack Obama argued on behalf of the latter.

“After all those years in Washington, John McCain still doesn’t get it,” Obama said. ” I commend him for his desire to accelerate the search for a battery that can power the cars of the future. I’ve been talking about this myself for the last few years. But I don’t think a $300 million prize is enough. When John F. Kennedy decided that we were going to put a man on the moon, he didn’t put a bounty out for some rocket scientist to win — he put the full resources of the United States government behind the project and called on the ingenuity and innovation of the American people. That’s the kind of effort we need to achieve energy independence in this country, and nothing less will do. But in this campaign, John McCain offering the same old gimmicks that will provide almost no short-term relief to folks who are struggling with high gas prices; gimmicks that will only increase our oil addiction for another four years.”

Moreover, the Center for American Progress’ Adam Jentleson raised a good point in a piece yesterday, noting, “A $300 million one-time payment may sound like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared to the $4 billion per-year tax break McCain has proposed giving to the 5 biggest oil companies (including $1.2 billion for Exxon Mobil alone). If McCain is serious about providing incentives for the developing clean energy technology, why is he doling out much, much bigger incentives for the big oil companies to keep doing business as usual? ”

Kevin struck a more forgiving note.

McCain didn’t offer any details about what it would take to win his prize, but that’s OK. I’m sure his campaign boffins can come up with something reasonable on that score. And even though it’s mostly a stunt, I don’t really have a problem with proposing prizes like this. If it doesn’t work no harm is done, and if it does work it’s a cheap way of spurring innovation.

But what I’m curious about is why conservatives are so ga-ga over the whole prize concept in the first place. Prizes for spaceflight, prizes for batteries, prizes for cancer cures, prizes and more prizes. They really seem to love the idea, despite the fact that there’s no special reason to think it will work. And the numbers they toss out are always ridiculously low. It’s not as if battery development is currently some kind of big government boondoggle, after all. Lots of private sector companies are working on new battery technology, and they’re doing it because the potential market is worth tens of billions of dollars. An extra $300 million isn’t really much of an incentive at all.

So why the enthusiasm? I guess it seems more free market-ish than doling out research grants, but if you’re dedicated to market solutions why would you think the market needs the extra boost in the first place? It’s all very strange. But relatively harmless, I suppose, and possibly worth experimenting with.

Ultimately, I’m inclined to agree with Kevin on this, though I’m not at all convinced it’s a political winner for McCain. Voters tend to want to hear about solutions, especially when it comes to energy policy, and McCain’s pitch is effectively, “Hopefully someone clever will come up with a solution, at which point I’ll give them a whole lot of money.”

Hope isn’t a plan, but apparently it’s an energy policy.

But what I’m curious about is why conservatives are so ga-ga over the whole prize concept in the first place.

Especially when they’ve proven time and time again that they’re the least equipped to judge a winner in anything but a bullshitting contest.

This is just another way to funnel public funds into to private coffers. Does anyone think that if McCane actually won and pushed such a proposal the “winner” would be anyone other than a fRightwing lickspittle, Regent’s Uni grad or a division of Haliburton?

  • Let’s see: the GOP is against taxes and regulation, so those approaches are both out. But they’ve got to look like they’re doing something: for some odd reason, people just don’t buy the notion anymore that the free market will solve all our problems. (Go figure.)

    Offering a prize satisfies those constraints – and it’s hard to think of anything else that does. So that’s why prizes are the new GOP elixir.

  • Obama’s response was right on the mark. We need an Apollo project to develop alternatives, and the sooner the better.

    Now if only Obama would get together with Jay Inslee of Washington state and hammer out the details. Like Kucinich and national health insurance, Jay Inslee introduced a grand plan for the development of alternatives years ago. Naturally, it went nowhere.

    When are the Republicans going to understand that we have serious problems, and that they need serious solutions, and the private sector left to itself will never solve them. Never.

  • I actually think this is a GREAT idea. In fact, I’ve already started working on my better battery right now! I tried crazy glueing a bunch of batteries together, but just got my finger stuck in the middle and got shocked every time I tried it. I tried stripping the metal off another batch of batteries and just got burned by the battery acid. I even tried sticking a bunch of little batteries inside a big car battery, but the thing just blew up on me. My next move is to start from scratch and build my own super-battery. I’ve got a book that shows how to make one from a potato, a penny, and aluminum foil, and plan on using a bunch of HUGE Idaho potatoes and a LOT of pennies. It has the added benefit of giving you a source of food and money in case your car breaks down. Wish me luck.

    These contests are GREAT. Really makes me feel like I’m in charge of my own destiny!

  • I don’t undesrtand why people aren’t attacking the economic assertion that McCain is making. The $300m bounty indicates that he believes that battery technology isn’t advancing quickly enough because there is not enough economic incentive to produce improved batteries.

    But that’s utter hogwash. The person who comes up with a dramatically better battery will clean up in the marketplace. That’s what the patent system is for, after all. Compared to the profits involved in producing the McCain dream battery, the $300m payment is utterly negligible. The technology will be worth many, many billions.

    Given that there is already tremendous investment in improving battery technology, and there are huge economic rewards to be had from revolutionary developments, what behavior is the $300m supposed to encourage that’s not already happening? I would be shocked if there was any company out there with the technical expertise to deliver such a battery but for whom this $300m will be the tipping point in deciding whether to invest.

    So, even if McCain doesn’t realize it himself, it is indeed a gimmick, if you define gimmick to mean “something which will produce no tangible good but which gives a patina of encouraging progress.”

  • McCain shows considerable chutzpah on this after voting against so many alternative energy bills. In the instance of battery technology, McCain is attempting to jump in front of a parade that’s already well under way. There are numbers of companies, both large and small, beating their brains out to come up with better battery technology for the very reason that Steve mentioned: the payoff for a killer battery will be billions. My cynical prophesy is that we’ll suddenly have the technology for viable electric cars as soon as the oil companies have a stranglehold on it.

  • Honda just put a hydrogen powered car on sale in Japan and California (they’ve been selling hydrogen cars as fleet vehicles for a few years). BMW has a duel hydrogen/gas version of its 7 Series. Kits are available to turn a Toyota Prius into a plug in car. The technology has ben around for along time, but the big auto makers weren’t about to throw cold water on their SVU golden egg untill it was worth their while. Suddenly its worth their while. Nissan wants a zero emmisson car commercially available in several years. We’ve reached the tipping point and we’re going to see development of alternate fuel vehicles speaded up. We need vision and leadership, not Monty Hall style gimmicks.

    McCain better hope for another terrorist attack. At this point its about the only thing he has going for him.

  • Offering a prize appeals to the only non-rich people McCain can get to vote for him- rednecked idiots whose idea of a retirement investment is buying a lottery ticket.

  • Not so much. A prize is a good way to get something built, if you have a lot of knowledge related to the project. People can but stuff together in now and innovative ways to get a new result. Cf. the man powered airplane across the English channel and the plane that went around the world without refueling (Voyager, Burt Rutan). But to build batteries that are several times better than what we have, we need new fundamental research. That can only be discovered by long term research programs. That takes consistent research grants. This administration has been steadily cutting this money in all branches of science and medicine.
    So, this is another gimmick, harmful to the extent it distracts from the real need.

  • bof·fin also Bof·fin (bŏf’ĭn)
    n. Chiefly British Slang.
    A scientist, especially one engaged in research.

    I doubt McCain has very many in his campaign.

    The $300 million remind me of Dr. Evil wanting one MILLLION dollars. AlsoI watched Dirty Harry again on Netflix Watch Instantly service. In it the killer demanded $100,000. Someone said, “How’s the mayor going to come up with that kind of money.”

    The age of the solitary genius inventing something like that is past. Maybe Iron Man will invent the battery.

  • Shorter McCain:

    I got nuthin’. You guys got somethin’? Sell it to me, cheap!

    Seriously, will $300 million even cover the development costs of something like this?

  • Steve, you missed the whole point of McCan’ts suggestion.

    It’s slight of hand. We have the technology now to double the gas millage of our cars using Hybrid engines and new building materials. We have the batteries to make electric cars that are effective for 90% of all personal driving tasks. We have the technology to make Hydrogen fueled cars and the infrastructure to safely transport Hydrogen to the point of sale (it’s called Water people – H20) and to convert it to useable Hydrogen (it’s called Electricity? This is high school chemistry!).

    That said, the Oil Mafia defense it to insist that all the available solutions be ignored and we work feverishly on the NEXT technology. In this case super batteries that can power a Hummer for a 1000 mile road trip.

    And we fall for it again and again. They were going to build a carbon sequestering coal fired electricity plant (FutureGen) until the Bushites scrapped it THIS YEAR.

    You can bet they’ll scrap the Super Battery project too. Just as soon as it’s ready for engineering testing.

    Don’t be distracted by the idiot tools of the Texas Oil Mafia. We have the solutions we need now. What we need is a PRESIDENT and not a Frat Boy Prince.

  • I wonder if I can stack that with the 300 million that the oil companies give me to hide the patent or if they will just have me rubbed out when I come up with an idea to end the demand for oil.

    I will start working on that right away.

    Thanks Senator McCain for giving us the lip-service for a better tomorrow.

  • ” Lots of private sector companies are working on new battery technology, and they’re doing it because the potential market is worth tens of billions of dollars.”

    Actually, it’ll be ten-of-billiions plus $300 million. McCain will turn over taxpayer money to a private company for doing what they’re already doing. And then probably give them a tax break on their profits. More socialism for corporate America, while there’s capitalism for the rest of us poor slobs.

    Even so, I LOVE the idea of a prize because it’s so very, very Republican. Here’s another idea: Let’s put the entire U.S. economy into a pinata, hang it from a tree, and let the president, corporate America, and most especially Halliburton beat the crap out of it. When the prizes fall out, Fortune 500 companies and billionaires only will be able to run and pick up the prizes.

    Oh, sorry. I forgot. The Republican party has already begun doing that.

    Crankily yours,
    The New York Crank

  • Prizes, prizes. . . I predict that McCain’s next proposal for an economic boost is a new national lottery, with every citizen in the U.S. given one free ticket! If that doesn’t excite people, he could bump it to two free tickets! Think that’ll fly?

  • Prizes in general are a decent idea IF there’s no immediate, marketable demand for a product and IF the basic research around said product has already been produced by there’s insufficient infrastructure in place to make it work. As Brooks says, this just isn’t true of battery technology – there are a lot of really smart folks working in industry to come up with more competitive uses for the current (and next, actually) generation of technology, and a lot of smart people in academia working on the basic research needs for future generations (usually in partnership with the same large industries, actually).

    Where things like prizes are actually useful is to provoke interest in exploring an invention space where there isn’t an immediate, marketable demand for a product BUT there’s a belief that if you had the technology the market would grow up around it (the “if you build it they will come” phenomenon). This was the premise of the X-Prize for creating a low-cost method for space travel. The basic technology for low-earth orbit space travel is already there, and the basic research has been solid for quite a while. What’s missing now is the ingenuity to make it available to everyone. Except there’s no market yet for “space travel for everyone” so there’s no industry that wants to take the risk of investing a lot of energy into research that may never pay them back. Enter the “prize” – where a sum of money is placed up to counterbalance the fact that the market has no mechanism in place to get people to fill a niche with no demand.

    Conservatives see a reasonable idea like the X-Prize and want to generalize it to all research. But there’s a sweet spot where prizes like this are a good idea – places where the free market fails to provide the needed incentive and requires a little bit of a push. But prizes aren’t going to get basic research done, and prizes aren’t going to push markets that already have demand for a product to get it done any faster. McCain’s suggestion is indicative of someone who doesn’t seem to understand how free-market economics actually works.

  • Whoa, Lance [14]: You are so dead on, man. This stinks of feigning concern as a diversionary technique. It does the double duty of making McCain seem like he gives a shit while painting the inaccurate picture that electric cars are still somehow decades away.

  • This is further proof of just what a poor campaign staff McCain has. This is the kind of idea you might get if you asked a seventh grade class to come up with a solution to the energy crisis by second period tomorrow. Notice how his suggestion doesn’t even list the requirements for the battery – how long will it last, how heavy it needs to be, what kind of vehicle it would propel and at what speed, how much it would cost the consumer, etc. What possible good would it be if someone developed something that cost a half million dollars and could only propel a Smart Car.

  • John McCain to America:

    “I shall flap you into submission with my secret weapon: The Holy Jowls of Flip Flop. Resistance is futile!!!”

  • He said he will pay for the prize by finding pork in the budget….

    so the REAL headline should be:

    “McCAIN PROPOSES $300 MILLION OF FRESH PORK IN HIS OWN BUDGET – UNTIL A SUPER-BATTERY IS INVENTED”.

  • “A $300 million one-time payment may sound like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared to the $4 billion per-year tax break McCain has proposed giving to the 5 biggest oil companies (including $1.2 billion for Exxon Mobil alone).

    I wish Obama had said that as well. Remind folks that, not only are they getting record profits on our backs, but that we’re subsidizing them as well.

  • Who cares about McCain anymore? I want to know if Senator Obama is really serious on this:

    That’s [the Apollo program] the kind of effort we need to achieve energy independence in this country, and nothing less will do.

    I’ve thought this for years. You know who gets my votes in an instant, almost regardless of his/her other positions? The person who says, “I will commit the resources of this nation to a ten-year program to eliminate fossil fuels as a significant component of the nation’s energy budget.” I want to hear big ideas — I want to hear about the $100 billion-a-year, 10-year research program.

  • McCain would gain some real credibility if he were to suggest that we need to get about half the driving public out of cars. Redesign the transportation networks and city layouts to enable many more people to make the car of the future no car at all. Bad news for GM, Ford unless they start making cars for Amtrak. Recent reports revealed that nationwide, Amtrak has less than 700 cars!

  • Has McCain consistently voted to open up ANWR to oil exploration/drilling? If so, how does that help to “break the back of our oil dependency”? Support for ANWR oil extraction and for getting away from oil-based energy do not add up to a consistent message. It sounds more like McCain is striving for mass appeal by working to satisfy many, many small segments of the electorate.

  • What DaleP said in #11. McCain’s prize is a distraction. Private companies are already investing in the hopes of far larger profits. Relatively few university labs will pay for a research program in the hopes of being the one lucky lab to have a breakthrough and win a prize, so if you want some progress in addition to what the private companies are already doing, the best bet would be to pump up related areas of research funding via the National Science Foundation. Fund a lot more research labs well via a mix of funding for both applied research focussed on battery technology and for basic / less tightly focussed allied research. Give the latter programs a free hand to be creative and to do basic research, and hope that someone comes up with something.

  • “Hope isn’t a plan, but apparently it’s an energy policy.”

    I agree, however, HOPE, CHANGE, UNITY… and Nirvana is all the Obama campaign has and is offering us… all of HIS [Policy ideas] have been stolen from Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Jr. Senator has about as much chance as a snowball in hell of getting any of them enacted as he is too politically immature and inexperienced… only his Kool-Aid drinkers don’t understand that…

  • This has nothing to do with any particular topic.
    However, would it be possible for Wolf to stop calling all
    people “guys”. “Thanks guys” is a frequent saying used
    even when the panel of 4 is 3 women. How about just plain
    thank you or thanks all.

  • Bernard @ 25: “I will commit the resources of this nation to a ten-year program to eliminate fossil fuels as a significant component of the nation’s energy budget.” I want to hear big ideas — I want to hear about the $100 billion-a-year, 10-year research program.

    Bernard, you don’t have to wait. The USA already did the ten-year research program, and they only spent about ten million a year on it. Worked great! 2,000 people, including 500 PhDs, worked ten years at Argonne National Laboratory and came up with an energy system that’s safe, economical, produces no greenhouse gas emissions, and for which we already have enough fuel out of the ground to power the entire planet for hundreds of years. What, you never heard of it? That’s because Congress killed it in its crib, made them dismantle the facility, and the DOE ordered the researchers to NOT publicize it.

    It’s the biggest idea you’re going to hear about in a long time. And lest you haven’t noticed me plugging my upcoming book, in late July you’ll be able to read all about it in Prescription for the Planet. That and more, actually. It’ll blow your mind.

  • Okay, my bad, I was dredging from my memory but I went back to the Congressional Record and looked up the cost of that research program. In 1984, when it began, it was running at $304 million. A decade later it was down to around $140 million/year. So yes, it must have included salaries. I regret the lapse, I don’t know where that came from. I’ve been tossing around lots of big numbers lately and banged that out in undue haste. 1994 is when they killed the program. Compared to fighting for oil, this was WAY cheap!

  • Two thoughts, both related to the topic at hand, but not to each other:
    1) I wonder what the tax rate on that 300mil would be?
    2) Whatever happened to the prize offered to the first man who carried a baby to term and then gave birth to it?

  • Talk about gimmicks. Obama’s economic policies are a bad joke. So all of his ideas are gimmicks (or worse). For instance, ask any reputable economist or finance professional about what will happen if we put a windfall profits tax on oil companies, and they will tell you that it’s completely irrational, as they did yesterday at the hearing of the House Energy Committee. If you think for a minute that the consumer and the economy will benefit, you should go back to Econ 101.

  • Here is something which is yet to be said: More than 90% of all basic research that is done in the US is funded by the US government. The rights to the invention are then conveyed to the inventor by the Bayh-Dole act. This additional 300 million prize money means nothing to the inventors because they will own the invention, and can license it for much more than that. But I am sure they would welcome the prize as a bonus. However, the real problem isn’t that. The problem is: Who will pay for the research that needs to be done? Ask any scientist and they will tell you, that without government funding, this battery search is not even worth mentioning. There aren’t any additional monies available for research into bold new things these days. Unless, we sacrifice some current projects, end the wars, or increase the deficit. Currently all the science agencies’ budgets have been slashed except for projects related to weapons research. Mr. McCain needs to explain who is going to pay for this research, and how. No company will put up the kind of money required for this without getting even larger sums of grant monies from the government. Unfortunately, lobbyists have already told our politicians how to vote on alternate fuels, so getting congress to increase research funding in this area is a very long shot. Therefore how can Mr. McCain say that this isn’t pandering or a gimmick? He would have been better served proposing research funding increases for this battery.

  • Here is some interesting stuff on batteries:
    In the Daily Koss article, note how the country putting money into renewable energy is …..SAUDIA ARABIA!

    s the first recipient on the list of a Global Research Partnership (GRP) grant announced by His Excellency Minister Abi Ibrahim Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of KAUST.

    http://www.sandia.gov/news-center/news-releases/2003/renew-energy-batt/betterlithium.html
    http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/could_silicon_whiskers.php
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/15/13449/4124/913/477071
    http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html
    http://www.urbanmover.com/technology_batteries_silicone.htm
    http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/greenwiki/Electric_vehicle#Charge_time
    http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10789409

    I remember when the USA was the world leader in basic research!
    David Chisholm

    David Chisholm

  • I keep reading that there is no short-term “fix” for oil supply/price reduction at the pump. How much oil do we use per day in Iraq? Pull out and save.

    What about some rationalization of gas to reduce essential food and other costs, and provide a cut rate for X amount of gas and a premium price for amounts beyond that – weekly/monthly?

  • Man this Obama shoots down every real world idea anyone else has. I wish he would just shut up and stay out of the way. That is all this guy does is talk. McCain’s plan will work excellent, everyday people will be able to particiapate, not just big companies. So SHUT UP DUDE !!! Let the American people compete. Just think dickhead, if a college were to develope this, then look at all the money they would have for scholorships. Dude, you are so negative about everything, I don’t see you coming up with any new ideas or policy.

  • You people are just stupid and lazy. Of course companies are working on this. This opens the door for the common man to try to use his ingenuity to acheive what he may have not if he did not have a reward. The whole idea is to get folks thinking about how they can help the gas problem. If a man in a garage comes up with it. First he will win the money, but then he will also sell his pantent to the highest bidder. So the whole point to the offer is to get everyone and anyone involved, not just those that had been woking on it before last week. You liberals are so negative, you sit around and chant “Yes we can…”, but then you don’t get off of your ass and do anything. The phrase “Yes we can…”, must mean for others to do the work and then I guess you want to just sit and bitch until someone gives it to you. Instead of whinning about the reward, why not get off of your ass and try to win it, did you ever think about that? Or are you too busy trying to shoot down others’ dreams because you don’t have any of your own. The point of the reward is to motivate all that may posses the ingenuity to get up and be the first to invent it. This is the same way we were motivated in highschool for science project. Teacher tells you to do it first, then the successful one gets the ribbon and the grade. So, quit downing others for their ideas and get off your ass and try to win it, or shut up and let someone else.

  • Prizes work. Massive government programs haven’t worked since the Apollo moon landing and the only reason it worked then is that there was a territorial imperative similar to war — and war is another area where massive government programs are justified.

    But even in the case of Apollo, the price paid was institutionalized malaise in space activities compared to the only area of the space activities where the government was prohibited, BY LAW, from acting in:

    Communication satellites

    Every “war on this” or “Manhattan program for that” or “Apollo program for the other” has been a dismal failure ever since.

    Agreed, there are always problems in sufficiently objective criteria for awarding prizes, but with at least with such criteria (launch a two man rocket 60 miles twice within a week, for example, as was used in the Ansari X-Prize) there is some prayer of avoiding political favoritism. If you don’t have such award criteria, you are guaranteed to create an organization that not only finds outside competition threatening, but will actively use taxpayers money to suppress it! The only organization to have had any success dealing with this moral hazard were the Soviets and they achieved it by regularly taking their corrupt bureaucrats out behind a shed and putting a bullet through the back of their heads.

    Are we prepared to do that kind of thing in the US?

    Indeed, not only should prizes be used for technology milestones, but the principle should be _extended_ to scientific data gathering.

    Government should specify scientific information it wants and purchase it at a pre-announced price, paid to the first provider of the information that meets scientific peer review standards for quality assurance.

    This is the way the Human Genome Project should have been conducted, and it is the way to handle information like remote sensing and planetary imaging, as well as astronomical observation. You can even handle geological sampling of other bodies this way.

    If you look at how much NASA spends for acquiring this kind of information, you can see that the value per bit is extremely high — more than high enough to render other proven methods like the X-Prize minute by comparison.

    If there is some sort of capital market failure that makes it so that there is no capitalization of businesses to provide this information, then fix whatever the problem is with capitalism because that problem is affecting a lot more than space science!

    Suggestion: Stop taxing economic activity and instead charge a use fee for property rights. Assess the property rights at their in-place liquidation value and make the use fee equal to short term treasury rates. Shift to this system gradually, crediting previously paid taxes that are in excess of what would have been paid under the property right use fee system. Real libertarians will support this because it is a quid-pro-quo between government and private property rights. Even socialists should support this because it shifts the costs of government to those who benefit most from government: Those whose net assets make them the prime beneficiaries of government’s primary service: The protection of property rights.

    Now THAT’S a progressive space policy.

  • I think prizes are a good mechanism when the market will reward a big improvement but not incremental improvements. Of course this prize doesn’t accomplish this, as it has already been pointed out that the market would provide much bigger rewards than 300 million for a 70% improvement. But if the prize provided 100 million for each 5% or something similar, that might be an efficient way to encourage innovation.

    In general, if it is the case that improvements are cumulative, that the market only rewards a big improvement, and that these rewards will only go to the people who made the final few steps, then only firms with enough resources to complete all the steps themselves would have a motivation for creating this big improvement. This could be a big friction in the market. By offering a staged reward, the government lowers the minimum firm size needed to profitably contribute, by lowering the size of the improvement needed to generate a profit.

    A well known solar cell researcher argued to me that the government should invest more in the solar cell industry because improvements were a function of the number of solar cells produced. I think that physical production of solar cells contributes little to the development of solar energy technology, but it provides an incentive for small improvements. But this is very inefficient compared with prizes, since a lot of money is wasted subsidizing the manufacturing of solar cells that are themselves not efficient. The key is whether a given technology is expected to have small cumulative improvements or a single big jump.

  • Comments are closed.