For the first time in American history, Muslims began to be recognized as a voting bloc in the 2000 election. Sensing an apparent opportunity, Bush deliberately reached out to Muslim groups for endorsements against Al Gore, and the groups reciprocated in kind.
Less than a month before Election Day 2000, for example, the American Muslim Political Coordinating Council Political Action Committee announced its Bush endorsement, citing, in part, his “outreach to the Muslim community.” At the time, this was the first organized Muslim endorsement of a presidential candidate in U.S. history.
Bush’s support among Muslim leaders translated to overwhelming support among Muslim voters. Though it may seem bizarre, by some estimates Bush actually enjoyed nearly identical support among Muslim voters as he did among fundamentalist Christian voters (about 80% of each). Bush may have come in second in the popular vote, but support among Muslims certainly helped in states such as Florida, where 90% of the state’s Muslim voters supported Bush. In a state that was effectively tied, this obviously makes a difference.
The GOP-Muslim vote nexus didn’t occur overnight. Indeed, as The New Republic explained two years ago, Republican uber-consultant Grover Norquist, when not railing against taxes and trying to get Reagan on Mount Rushmore, has made it one of his “lesser-known projects over the last few years” to bring American Muslims into the Republican Party.
Going into 2004, however, Muslim voters are another group whose votes are up-for-grabs. Bush may have enjoyed overwhelming Muslim support three years ago, and the institutional ties to the GOP may have been strong, but for a variety of reasons, Muslims appear ready to leave Bush behind.
Several national Muslim groups met over the weekend in Chicago to discuss strategy for future elections in more detail. The conference concluded with some concrete political goals: register 1 million new Muslim voters and make civil rights a top issue in any endorsement of a presidential candidate.
Muslims have, due to their smaller numbers, generally been ignored in national electoral politics. Consultants have talked for years about the “Jewish vote” or the “Catholic vote,” but as long as Islam had less than one percent of the population, there was no discussion about how best to win the “Muslim vote.”
While the exact number of Muslim in America has been the subject of some fairly intense debate in recent years, their numbers are somewhere between 3 million and 7 million. Regardless of the exact number, Islam has enjoyed dramatic growth in the U.S. over the last decade, but some estimates, seeing their numbers literally double since 1990.
Just as importantly, as the AP reported, Muslims in America tend to be “highly educated professionals with the means to make significant campaign donations.” In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, several national Muslim groups reported dramatic increases in activism from adherents who had previously been uninvolved. “Immigrant Muslims who had taken little interest in U.S. government began inviting their mayors, governors and even FBI agents into local mosques to learn about the community,” the AP said.
Muslim voters, in other words, are the type of active and informed voters candidates will be seeking out in next year’s election. For their part, the Muslim groups appear prepared to exert newfound influence.
Over the weekend, for example, the crowd chanted: “I am an American, I am a Muslim, and I vote.”
Who they vote for, however, is open to question. Bush may have built ties to the Muslim community before the 2000 election, but Muslim voters feel betrayed by several of Bush’s efforts, including detaining hundreds of Muslim immigrants after 9/11, the shutting down of several Muslim charities the U.S. accused of having terrorist ties, and concerns about Muslim profiling as part of John Ashcroft’s controversial USA Patriot Act.
Perhaps most inflammatory was Bush’s nomination of Daniel Pipes to a seat on the federally-funded U.S. Institute of Peace, despite Pipes’ reputation as an anti-Islam bigot. Muslims nationwide, for example, were astonished that Bush would nominate someone to such a position despite having said that he believes Muslim government employees in law enforcement, the military, and the diplomatic corps “need to be watched for connections to terrorism,” and his insistence that “mosques require a scrutiny beyond that applied to churches and temples.” Pipes really won over Muslim friends by saying, “All immigrants bring exotic customs and attitudes, but Muslim customs are more troublesome than most.”
With these insults in mind, Muslim voters aren’t anxious to climb back on Bush’s bandwagon. They may not be inclined to vote Democratic, but if the “Muslim vote” consists of millions of voters who feel spurned by Bush and the GOP, I guarantee the Dems will at least make an effort to do some significant outreach.
The lingering question I can’t get around, unfortunately, is whether candidates would be hesitant to make this outreach publicly for fear of an anti-Islam backlash. It seems horrible to even contemplate, but considering the current hostile climate, I wonder if too many intolerant Americans, who mistakenly view Islam as some kind of threat, would hold it against a candidate for working to build ties between their campaign and the Muslim community. I certainly hope this is not the case, but it’s something to look out for in the coming months.