At this point, it’s tempting to disregard national political polls about the policy agenda in DC. All of the recent data is exactly the same — Bush is unpopular, the war is unpopular, and the public backs Dems over the GOP — so there’s no real point in getting worked up about this week’s numbers mirroring last week’s numbers, which mirror the week before.
However, the WaPo noted about a week ago that congressional Republicans are still taking polls seriously, particularly when it comes to Iraq. When a recent Gallup poll included a hint of good news about Americans’ attitudes towards Gen. David Petraeus, “GOP Senate offices circulated the results.” The numbers were skewed, and Republicans were cherry-picking from the data, but the fact that they were even looking to polls in the first place shows that they are interested in public opinion.
And with that in mind, congressional Republicans might want to take a good, long look at the new WaPo/ABC poll.
Most Americans oppose fully funding President Bush’s $190 billion request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a sizable majority support an expansion of a children’s health insurance bill he has promised to veto, putting Bush and many congressional Republicans on the wrong side of public opinion on upcoming foreign and domestic policy battles.
The new Washington Post-ABC News poll also shows deep dissatisfaction with the president and with Congress. Bush’s approval rating stands at 33 percent, equal to his career low in Post-ABC polls. And just 29 percent approve of the job Congress is doing, its lowest approval rating in this poll since November 1995, when Republicans controlled both the House and Senate. It also represents a 14-point drop since Democrats took control in January.
Despite discontent with Congress this year, the public rates congressional Republicans (29 percent approve) lower than congressional Democrats (38 percent approve). When the parties are pitted directly against each other, the public broadly favors Democrats on Iraq, health care, the federal budget and the economy. Only on the issue of terrorism are Republicans at parity with Democrats.
What’s more, frustration with Congress stems entirely from the public’s desire to see lawmakers stand up to Bush on Iraq more, not less.
Now, it’s worth noting that there’s still some confusion about how best to proceed.
At the same time, there is no consensus about the pace of any U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq. In July, nearly six in 10 said they wanted to decrease the number of troops there, but now a slim majority, 52 percent, think Bush’s plan for removing some troops by next summer is either the right pace for withdrawal (38 percent) or too hasty (12 percent would like a slower reduction, and 2 percent want no force reduction). Fewer people (43 percent) want a quicker exit.
John Csanadi of Nanuet, N.Y., said he has mixed feelings about what to do next in Iraq. Asked about Bush’s proposal for a modest drawdown of troops, he said: “It’s a start. Not the best solution, but at least it’s a start.”
Indeed, as Kevin Drum noted, “52% think Bush’s schedule for troop deployments is about right (or should be even more aggressive). However, 70% think funding for the war should be reduced. In other words, about 18% of the population supports Bush’s war plan but doesn’t support funding it.”
My hunch is that the wording of the question matters a great deal here. The Post didn’t publish the raw data and/or the questionnaire online (at least I couldn’t find it), but I suspect poll participants were asked whether they approve of the idea of withdrawing 5,000 troops by Christmas, 30,000 troops by the summer, and as many as 60,000 by the end of 2008. I imagine a lot of Americans hear “thousands of troops coming home” and immediately like the idea, not realizing that those troops were scheduled to return anyway, and that the modest withdrawals do not actually represent a change in policy.
As for Congress’ unpopularity, more than eight in 10 Americans, including large majorities across party lines, said Congress has accomplished “not too much” or “nothing at all” this year. Bad news for the majority party, right? Well, not exactly.
By a 2 to 1 margin, those who see little accomplishment in Congress’s first nine months blame the inaction on Bush and the GOP more than they do the majority Democrats. Fifty-one percent place primary fault with the president and congressional Republicans, and 25 percent on the Democrats.
The next time you hear a conservative crowing that the Democratic Congress receives low marks, keep these numbers in mind.