A new Washington Post/ABC News poll includes plenty of predictable results — Bush is still unpopular, the war in Iraq is still considered a mistake, Dems enjoy a double-digit lead on the generic ballot, etc. — but there was one number that stood out as unusual.
For months, if not years, public opinion about Congress has stood at a much lower rate than voters’ opinions of their own member of Congress. People have been disgusted by the institution, but when asked about the lawmaker representing them, the vast majority was satisfied.
Even this is beginning to change.
Most Americans describe themselves as being in an anti-incumbent mood heading into this fall’s midterm congressional elections, and the percentage of people who approve of their own representative’s performance is at the lowest level since 1994, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. […]
Especially worrisome for members of Congress is that the proportion of Americans who approve of their own representative’s performance has fallen sharply. Traditionally, voters may express disapproval of Congress as a whole but still vote for their own member, even from the majority party. But 55 percent now approve of their lawmaker, a seven-percentage-point drop over three months and the lowest such finding since 1994, the last time control of the House switched parties.
“That’s dramatic,” said Republican consultant Ed Rollins, who was White House political director under President Ronald Reagan.
Sure, in an environment in which most voters loathe Congress, it’s still a little odd that 55% approve of their own representative, but that’s the lowest the number has been since … wait for it … late October 1994, which was about a week before something fairly dramatic happened to the congressional landscape.
Indeed, 53% of respondents consider themselves anti-incumbent, while 29% said they are inclined to re-elect congressional candidates — which is “almost precisely the same percentages as in June 1994.”
The other noteworthy result from the poll deal with Iraq and national security.
* Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling (ITEM)?
The situation in Iraq — Democrats 43%, Republicans 40%
The U.S. campaign against terrorism — Democrats 46%, Republicans 38%
The preference for Dems on Iraq isn’t new (in fact, the party’s lead on the question has shrunken a bit), but an eight-point gap in the Dems’ favor on handling the war on terrorism is a welcome surprise.
Asked what will be the single most important issue in their vote for Congress this year, people ranked Iraq and the economy as tied for number one, followed by gas prices, health care, terrorism, and immigration, in that order. Of those six issues, are there any that look good for Republicans?