It was certainly a frustrating afternoon when we learned that congressional Dems had effectively caved to White House demands and would move forward with a war spending bill with no timelines or meaningful benchmarks. Sixteen hours ago, this seemed like an awful move. Dems and Bush were engaged in a three-month-long game of chicken, and despite having the upper hand, it looked like Dems blinked.
I’ve had a chance to reflect on the negotiations and sleep on it. A half-day later, I’ve come to believe … the capitulation still stinks.
Congressional Democrats relented Tuesday on their insistence that a war spending measure set a date for withdrawing American combat troops from Iraq. Instead, they moved toward a deal with President Bush that would impose new conditions on the Iraqi government.
The decision to back down was a wrenching reversal for leading Democrats, who saw their election triumph in November as a call to force an end to the war. It was the first time since taking power in Congress that the Democrats had publicly agreed to allow a vote on war financing without a timetable for troop withdrawal. […]
Other Democrats said they had no choice. “It was a concession to reality,” said Representative James P. Moran, Democrat of Virginia, who said he intended to oppose the war spending portion of the bill.
No, I’m afraid it really wasn’t. There was a stand-off between two equally powerful parties — the White House said it wanted a blank check, Congress said it wanted a timeline for withdrawal. The “reality” was that the president could have backed down, but he knew that as the pressure increased, Dems would likely fold. He counted on it — and he was right.
There’s no great mystery here. Congressional leaders believed someone was going to get blamed if war funding didn’t pass, and they assumed it’d be them. CNN released a poll last week asking respondents, “Who do you think is MORE responsible for the fact that the U.S. troops currently in Iraq have not yet received additional funds: President Bush, because he vetoed the Iraq funding bill passed by Congress, OR, the Democrats in Congress, because they passed an Iraq funding bill that they knew Bush would veto?” A plurality, 44%, said Dems were more responsible. The poll appears to have made the rounds on the Hill, and Dems likely believed these numbers were going to get worse. So they folded.
Despite all of this, I’m still trying to be a find-the-silver-lining kind of guy (character flaw). There are a couple of reasonably encouraging points to consider.
It’s easy to forget, but in February, the notion of passing a spending bill with a withdrawal timeline — through both chambers — was by no means a sure thing. In fact, at the time, it seemed like a bit of a long-shot. Dem leaders resisted the veto threat, overcame White House demagoguery, picked up a few Republican votes, and passed it anyway. It was a fairly impressive display.
I’d also add that Dem leaders in the Senate are in a tougher spot than is generally realized. We can have a debate about whether Harry Reid would pursue a sufficiently vigorous progressive agenda with a 60-vote majority and with a Democratic president at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, but those aren’t the circumstances we find ourselves in. Reid has a 51-seat majority, one of whom is physically unable to serve right now, and another of whom is Joe Lieberman. As a practical matter, that means the Senate Majority Leader is trying to exercise power with 49 votes, which is an inherently difficult task, particularly against constant Republican filibusters.
Indeed, as disappointed as I am about yesterday’s surrender, I believe that Dems need to show more backbone, but I also believe Republicans are to blame for all of this. We have a Republican president unwilling to negotiate and a Republican delegation, 99% of whom vote the way Bush tells them to. That’s not Harry Reid’s fault and it’s not Nancy Pelosi’s fault. Excelling in the face of filibusters they can’t break and vetoes they can’t override is inherently difficult.
We’ve actually made some progress in recent months. At the start of the year, a vote to end funding for the war was considered ridiculous. Last week, more than half the Dem caucus voted to do just that. The week before, 171 House Dems (including 12 Blue Dogs) voted for a near-total withdrawal of U.S. forces within nine months. In February, both of these seemed highly unlikely, if not impossible.
The reality is Dems forfeited yesterday, but there’s another game that hasn’t started yet. There’s going to be another fight over funding in the fall — which will give Dems a chance to make up for this failure. Now isn’t the time to throw up one’s arms in disgust, now is the time to gear up for round two.
Post Script: One final thought: Republicans may feel good about themselves given the Dems’ capitulation yesterday, but by standing behind a failed policy, they have nothing to brag about. By backing Bush, GOP lawmakers are making a disastrous war longer, increasing the threat of terrorism, and putting more American lives at risk. If they see this as a “victory,” they’ve lost sight of reality.