And for their next adventure…

July 16, 2007

Good heavens.

The balance in the internal White House debate over Iran has shifted back in favour of military action before President George Bush leaves office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.

The shift follows an internal review involving the White House, the Pentagon and the state department over the last month. Although the Bush administration is in deep trouble over Iraq, it remains focused on Iran. A well-placed source in Washington said: “Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo.”

The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not trust any potential successors in the White House, Republican or Democratic, to deal with Iran decisively. They are also reluctant for Israel to carry out any strikes because the US would get the blame in the region anyway.

“The red line is not in Iran. The red line is in Israel. If Israel is adamant it will attack, the US will have to take decisive action,” Mr Cronin said. “The choices are: tell Israel no, let Israel do the job, or do the job yourself.”

They can’t “trust” the next president? What on earth has led them to think anyone should “trust” them?

For that matter, who’s going to approve a military confrontation like this? That is, other than Sam Brownback, Joe Lieberman, and Rudy Giuliani’s new top foreign policy advisor?

Andrew Sullivan had a great take on this:

Imagine you realize you have created the worst foreign policy debacle for the US since Vietnam. Imagine you have single-handedly wrecked America’s reputation for humane treatment of military detainees. Imagine further that your own pushing of the legal envelope even forced the president to commute your chief aide’s prison sentence for perjury. Imagine that your strategy in Iraq, now unspinnably failed, is grinding the US military into the dust, and uniting the entire country toward realism in the Middle East. What are you going to do? There’s only one thing that truly changes the game in your favor – a vast and reckless expansion of the war to another country. Obviously, the Congress will not assent. Obviously, the international community will not assent. Obviously, the State Department will not assent. Obviously, the American people will not assent without a very intensive, careful and persuasive case being made. But how on earth do Bush and Cheney have credibility on the question of intelligence that would be the core of the argument?

But you’re Dick Cheney. And as long as you control the president, you can still do what you want….

It seems to me that the question of who trusts any potential successors to Bush and Cheney should be left to the American people. But we know the contempt Bush and Cheney have for them. It also seems to me that a decision to go to war with another sovereign country while the US military is largely tied down policing a civil war in Iraq is the Congress’s. But we also know the contempt Bush and Cheney have for them. With rational people, we could be assured of some caution, preparation and transparency. These are not very rational people.

It’s why I’m worried.

“What are you going to do? ”

Start at THIRD land war in Asia, what else ?

  • Yeah, I’ve felt it’s the most obvious move to improve the party politically (not saying it will, because it’s a gamble) for a little while, but I’ve been keeping that off the table.

  • If we have some pre-strike notice as we did in the run-up to Iraq, there is no way the populace will tolerate another land war in Asia (h/t to Arthus for Princess Bride allusion) My fear is there will be some Gulf of Tonkin type incident, or even a black flag op, and we’ll wake up one morning and be told afterwards that the Airforce has struck Natanz, and that other air sorties are continuing over Iran. I also think most of the military will balk and maybe even generals and other will resign before it happens. The Flyboys worry me, because they aren’t getting enough action in the other 2 wars. And they need to use their toys.

    Bush and Cheney scare the bejeebus out of me. Look to early Sept. Isn’t that when the 3rd carrier group will pass through the Straits of Hormuz?

  • It is not a question of whether Bush has the ‘authority’ to attack Iran but rather does he have the ‘power’ to do it?

    Bush Cheney will never leave Iraq unless they are forced to.
    They will also find a way to attack Iran, murdering thousands of Iranians, unless they are stopped. We are talking controlled nukes here.
    Only congress has the power to stop this insanity and each day they hesitate is another day I live in fear of my president, of what he might do next. He is acting outside of the will of the people and outside the constitution. Enough is enough. Impeach them NOW before mass murder is committed again.

  • “Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo.”

    Certainly not. If there’s a single inch of the middle east he hasn’t turned into an complete and utter disaster by the time he leaves office, it would be tantamount to “cutting and running.” Never leave a job half finished, eh Georgie boy?

    The impeach now crowd (and why do I get the feeling half of them voted for Nader in 2000) ought to be happy though. Dropping a few bombs on Iran might just move the votes to really do it.

  • And what is this crap…we don’t trust the next president to carry out our plans???..Meaning he is going to dump on the next president.
    If that is not motivation to start impeachment now I don’t know what is.
    Cheney Bush act like dictators now…don’t give them more time to wreck our country. Do it now.

  • other quote: “Only the heir to the throne of the Kingdom of Idiots fights a war on twelve fronts.”

  • Does anyone need further proof that George W. Bush has an addict mentality? “I lost one war so I’ll start another and it’ll be different this time.”

  • Re: CalD @ #7

    The impeach later crowd ought to be happy though. They will make exemplary political prisoners in the FEMA concentration camps.

  • Support for Dee Loralei’s hypothesis.

    The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not trust any potential successors in the White House, Republican or Democratic, to deal with Iran decisively.

    Decisively (adv.) To drop bombs on or otherwise destroy.
    [The BushBotic Dictionary (C) 2007]

    They are also reluctant for Israel to carry out any strikes because the US would get the blame in the region anyway.

    Did I miss the part where Israel handed military decision-making over to the Child-in-Chief? Did I miss the part where Israel said, “That’s it, we’re going to fly over a war zone or over a few hostile countries to attack Iran because it won’t stop making faces at us.”?

    Thanks to BushBrat’s bungling, countries that are close to Israel (like Syria), are bulging at the seams with Iraqi refugees. Israel will probably frag the hell out of US soldiers in Iraq if it thinks Bush is going to do it “a favour” by starting more shit in the region.

    Here’s a question: Will the news that nearly half of the foreign prisoners detained in Iraq are from the country to the south rather than the east make a difference to the clusterfuckers in the White House?

    And another: Who do you think would be happier if we bombed Iran?
    a. Israel.
    b. Saudi Arabia.

  • “Who’s going to approve a military confrontation like that?”

    Recent votes:
    Senate 97-0 (Lieberman amendment to Defense Authorization Bill)
    House 411-2 (H. Con. Res. 21)

    Both casus belli.

    Honestly, other than outraged blog sites, who is really trying to stop an attack? Let me narrow it down: who inside the Beltway is doing anything to stop an attack on Iran?

    I’ve stated it here before: Bush’s poll numbers have jumped only three times since January 2001, 9-11, Iraq invasion, capture of Saddam. The administration has no leads on bin Laden. Some of the morons in his party are hoping for another 9-11, but that doesn’t play well in Peoria. So, it looks like door number 3, Bob.

    There are all sorts of angles to study here, but frankly I’m sick of trying to figure out those two idiots in the Oval Office. The only breathing space we have is that “you don’t roll out a new product in August.” We have until September, 60 days or less. Follow the battle carrier groups, three is ready, four is war. And remember, the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden puts you in range of a good number of Iranian targets.

    We’re all alone together on this one. When you are hoping for a rebellion by the Generals or praying for an unseen hero or two in Congress…well, it ain’t what I would call a Republic.

  • How do we know Congress won’t assent to an attack on Iran? I have serious doubts about that after the last week. This is not how democracy is supposed to work.

  • I think this Guardian report needs to be viewed with some healthy skepticism, given the extremely vague sourcing. Admittedly, there have been several well-sourced stories about how Cheney is agitating on Iran lately, and I don’t doubt those, but this Guardian story goes a lot further in saying he’s winning the debate. Not difficult to believe, of course, but until someone other than “a Washington source” says it, color me skeptical.

  • * Well, this might shake up the Iraq debate a bit: “The U.S. military’s top general said Monday that the Joint Chiefs of Staff is weighing a range of possible new directions in Iraq, including, if President Bush deems it necessary, an even bigger troop buildup…. C.B.

    Maybe this is W’s way of sneaking in a troop build-up for an attack on Iran?

  • “the worst foreign policy debacle for the US since Vietnam”

    What are you smoking?

    Viet Nam didn’t hurt our foreign policy anywhere nearly as much as Iraq has.

    PS Don’t flame me. My brother-in-law died there in 1967.

  • Neil: this time you are entirely right. This is the greatest failure in the history of the country. This is right up there with Hitler deciding to invade Poland in terms of ultimate outcome.

  • This is how Bush/Cheney work:
    Invade Afghanistan. Before the job is even half way done, invade Iraq. Iraq is a mess. Before that job is even half way done, bomb Iran.

    This reminds me of those shell games played on the street. Keep moving the button between the shells and no one knows where it’s gone.

    My questions to them: how are they going to fund it? Will the military revolt?

  • J Flowers,

    That’s a good question – will the military revolt?

    In most banana republics, if the government gets too crazy, too out of whack, the military steps in and removes the government forcibly, allowing a different group to govern.

  • A part of me hopes they bomb the place. I mean, I’ve had political debates throughout this war with people who keep on mocking the same folks who have been right from the beginning, and shifting to each new rationalization fed to them from talk radio, and as soon as we intervene, they’ll believe they were stabbed in the back. All the horrors they close their eyes to will suddenly become known to them when they can blame someone else.

    I feel like the guy in the passenger seat of the car who’s been screaming the whole time to please, put some sense in the driver or grab the steering wheel, anything to keep him from going off the cliff! And now that we’ve gone over the edge, the same people who rolled their eyes at wanting to slam on the brakes are rolling their eyes at my naivete for not seeing the point now. “Don’t you know what the consequences will be if we hit the bottom?”

    Yes. I do. I’ve been warning you about those consequences for years, and there was a time we could have prevented it — back in 2004 — but you didn’t listen. So now I might as well enjoy a little “told-you-so” before we hit.

    If Iraq escalates into regional war, I hope it happens in the next year, so there is no question about who’s to blame.

  • Will talk of attacking Iran create the public outrage that finally gets people in the streets? What else do we have at this point?

    Congress doesn’t get it, and Cheney wouldn’t care if they did. Cheney not only thinks the President can do anything he wants and is accountable to no one, he believes the President should act FIRST and deal with the consequences later (mostly through obstruction). Impeachment proceedings won’t be enough to stop them. Even with a conviction before the end of their term — about as remote a possibility as remote gets — it is totally within Cheney’s MO to invade just before they’re removed from office.

    I do believe there’s a shitstorm coming.

  • “Bush is not going to leave office with Iran still in limbo.”

    Assuming this “well-placed source” is to be believed — and frankly I don’t — we must decide whether Bush & Cheney are hopelessly stupid or evil (if we haven’t made that decision in the past 6 years). An attack on Iran cannot be completed by January 2009 — to wit, the Iraq adventure which has gone on 4 years too long. Unless (and here’s the evil part) they plan to solve the Iran Question once and for all by turning Persia into a sea of radioactive glass.

    Well, if they’re in a hurry…

  • Neil,

    What are you smoking, dude? With all due respect to the memory of your late brother-in-law (who bears on this question I’m not sure how, but OK), Vietnam was a disaster for US foreign policy that took almost two decades to heal. It all but wiped out any prestige and moral authority the country ever laid claim to along with any lingering respect for our military left over from WWII and the Korean conflict. By the time it was done, world opinion of the American people had degraded to the point that it was unsafe for ordinary US citizens to travel in large parts of the world.

    Iraq has been going on for four years now and has claimed the lives of thousands of Iraq US soldiers and contractors and tens of thousands of Iraqis and others, with some estimates running north of 100k. That is a terrible tragedy that no sane person can deny. Vietnam went on for well over 10 years and claimed the lives of nearly 100,000 US service personnel and 1.1 million Vietnamese. And there was something about daily photos and news footage showing burnt villages, sundered corpses and the effects of napalm attacks on babies and children that had a very chilling effect on international relations. Make no mistake about it.

    So give George W. Bush his due. Granted, he may have done almost as thorough a job of trashing what was left of our reputation in the world in 4 years as it took three presidents over a decade to do in the previous case. But don’t try to play down the damage done to the country by Vietnam just to make this war look bigger.

  • Why dont the Americans go with idea of making “the 51st state” official instead of unofficial and declare to ME …”its part of United States so hands off or else you get the Iraq treatment”…

    Surely that would be cheaper to do,less deadly for ME countries Israel doesnt “like” and we get a built in little militaristic,nuke equipped ME anthill to fly the stars and stripes over.

    The money the USA sends to Israel year in and year out simply then going to another American state.

    Oh…and Arab Palestine…make that part of the 51st state too,give the Arab Palestinians full American status too. No more Israeli brutality or land grabs. Jerusalem becoming a full international status city as well.

    Crazy you say? Well check out the current American ME derangement.

    Americans attacking Iran because Israel doesnt like Iran isnt crazy?

  • Iran is expected to reach enrichment levels of 5% within the next few months so time is running out to strike Iran even though they are still several years (2012) away from having a nuclear weapon. 5% enrichment does not violate the NPT and 95% is needed to make nuclear weapons. I’m not saying that war with Iran or some other country may not be necessary one day, my point is that Shrub and Cheney can not be trusted to make decisions with our country’s best interest as the main focus. Shrub sent a message of congratulations to Hagee, the Manchurian Clergyman.If Shrub considers Hagee a credible advisor or source of opinion we had better remove Shrub quickly. Bombing or starting a war with Iran will cause all or most of the Iranians to fall in behind Ahmadinejad against us. I have my doubts about the source of this poll but it says Iranians would feel safer if they had nuclear weapons. Iranians probably feel that having nuclear weapons would keep rogue nations at bay. North Korea is an example where a nutjob dictator with a nuclear weapon kept a rogue nation at bay during which time North Korea increased its nuclear arsenal by five more nuclear weapons and returned US-North Korea diplomatic agreements to those left by the previous president. Of course since our current president had absolutely no foreign policy other than lighting the ME on fire, $hrubCo entirely disregarded any agreements made by Clinton and allowed the North Korea situation to get out of control. Bombing Iran and insisting on elections in Pakistan should complete Shrub’s work. Now there’s a legacy.

  • “That’s it, we’re going to fly over a war zone or over a few hostile countries to attack Iran because it won’t stop making faces at us.”?

    LOL! TAIO: You slay me sometimes.

    Note to JKap: Not to worry. If FEMA runs their concentration camps the way they run their disaster relief operations these days (speaking of things Bush has trashed), people will be able to walk in and out of them at will. So do you think old Ralph will run again next year? 😉

  • Just imagine if these people were in charge of the country during the Cold War; we’d all be dead by now.

  • […] we must decide whether Bush & Cheney are hopelessly stupid or evil […] — Grumpy, @ 23.

    TweedleDick and TweedleDumb. One’s evil, the other… the name speaks for itself. It’s the combination of the two that makes the whole that much more explosive and terrifying.

  • I think the shadiness of the Guardian as a source for, uh, scoops on US politics isn’t something that even needs to be commented on, and my comment above certainly isn’t an endorsement of their reliability. I just wrote what I wrote because, true or not, they were broaching the possibility of an attack on Iran partly for its collateral effects of making the conservatives look good.

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