NPR released its first national survey of the year yesterday and the results were surprisingly one-sided: Republicans are “losing their stranglehold on national security and foreign policy,” leaving Dems with “a unique opportunity to get heard on keeping America safe.”
Democrats win every security debate in this poll and when voters are asked who they trust more on issues including the Iraq war, foreign ownership of US ports, and homeland security issues, Democrats come out on top. The only exception is the nuclear threat in Iran, where Republicans have a narrow 5 point advantage.
These results are a reflection of Bush’s collapse and the growing determination of Americans to vote for change. There has been a tectonic shift in the electorate with two thirds of the country now wanting to move in a new direction. Bush’s approval stands at 39 percent. 58 percent disapprove of his performance, and 45 percent of America disapproves strongly.
Democrats have an historic 15 point advantage (52 to 37 percent) in the generic congressional vote, the result of an emerging trend over the last 7 months and serious conclusions drawn about President Bush, the war in Iraq, and the economy.
The NPR also found key demographic shifts that could turn the political landscape upside-down. For example, NPR found that the parties are now running even in the white rural counties and in the counties carried by Bush in 2004. Moreover, older blue collar voters — most impacted by the changing economy, and least interested in foreign spending and foreign ownership of American ports — have pulled away from the Republicans.
Also worth noting is the fact that the NPR poll surveyed likely, not registered voters, giving the results greater political salience.
Polls don’t get anymore encouraging than this.