The latest Zogby poll out of New Hampshire shows a blowout in the making. By all indications, the race for first place isn’t going to be close, but the race for second just might. (margin of error +/- 4.5%)
Dean — 42% (up from 40% in October)
Kerry — 12% (down from 17% in October)
Clark — 9% (up from 7% in October)
Lieberman — 7% (up from 3% in October)
everyone else below 5%
Obviously, we know the eventual winner of this primary. The question isn’t whether Dean will win, it’s how much he’ll win by. Nevertheless, I’d like to remind folks, as I do just about every time I talk about New Hampshire, that a victory in the first primary isn’t an automatic ticket to the nomination. Recent winners in New Hampshire include Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart, and John McCain — none of whom went on to win their party’s nomination.
Considering the ridiculous margin of Dean’s lead, attention now shifts to who’s likely to finish second in New Hampshire. This race actually appears to be heating up considerably.
The margin between Clark and Kerry has never been closer — it’s down to just three percentage points, which is less than the margin of error.
Kerry may be inclined at this point to just give up on New Hampshire and focus attention elsewhere, effectively ceding the Granite State to Dean. Though certainly tempting, Kerry must be careful not to slip to third place in this primary.
For Clark, meanwhile, the Zogby poll has to be very encouraging news. The general has been practically living in New Hampshire the last couple of weeks and has been airing ads in the state. If he can manage to work his way into second place when voters go to the polls, it will be viewed as a tremendous success for his campaign and will give Clark a big boost going into the next round of primaries.
With this in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kerry, Clark, and Lieberman start to ignore Dean, under the assumption that his lead is insurmountable, and begin to focus their criticism on one another. Something to watch out for.
Update: I just noticed that Daily Kos has another N.H. poll, this one from American Research Group, which has very similar results to the Zogby poll.
Dean — 45% (up from 38% in early November)
Kerry — 13% (down from 17% in early November)
Clark — 11% (up from 7% in early November)
everyone else at or below 5%
All of the above analysis still applies. Dean’s lead is so big it’s silly and the fight for second place will be fierce.