For months, Bush could rely on Gallup polls to give him comfort. I’m not accusing Gallup of having a partisan bias — I certainly don’t think that’s the case — but even when several survey outlets showed Bush’s approval ratings dropping over the summer, Gallup didn’t.
In mid-July, for example, Newsweek had Bush’s approval rating dropping to 55%. Gallup, at the same time, pegged it at 62%. By mid-August, when some were showing Bush sliding to the low 50s, Gallup still had Bush at 59%.
And now even Gallup is showing a steep decline for the president.
A Gallup poll released yesterday had Bush’s approval rating dropping all the way to 50%, the lowest of his presidency, with 47% disapproving, the highest of his presidency.
The same poll asked Democrats and self-identified Dem-leaning Independents which of the 10 Dem candidates they’d like to see nominated to take on Bush. Like the Newsweek poll I mentioned yesterday, Clark was the big winner. In fact, he enjoyed an ever wider margin at the top in this poll.
Wesley Clark — 21%
Howard Dean — 12%
John Kerry — 12%
Joe Lieberman –11%
Dick Gephardt — 9%
and everyone else at 5% or lower
Unlike the Newsweek poll, Clark’s lead over Dean is larger than the margin of error. While these results are encouraging for Clark fans, I wouldn’t be surprised if his support fell a bit by the time the next poll is released a week or two from now. Clark is enjoying a sudden rush of support with intense media attention, which will probably subside soon.
Nevertheless, the Gallup poll also asked the question of the season: How do the Dem candidates stack up against Bush? If the primary race among the Dems is really about who is best able to beat Bush next year, this is the question that warrants the most attention.
The poll posed hypothetical match-ups between Bush and each of the top 5 Dems. Here’s where we find the really good news.
Again, Howard Dean did the worst, as he does in all of the national polls in general election match-ups. Dean nevertheless did quite well, especially compared to other recent polls. Among all national adults asked, 45% backed Dean, while 49% supported Bush — a slim 4-point margin. Dick Gephardt had the exact same results, while Joe Lieberman did slightly better, trailing Bush 49% to 46%.
Wesley Clark and John Kerry, meanwhile, actually led Bush nationwide. Kerry trailed Bush 48% to 47% among all adults, but led Bush by the same margin among registered voters.
Clark did the best, leading Bush in both categories, including a 49% to 46% lead among registered voters.
This should do wonders for Clark’s fundraising efforts. If Dem voters are looking to back a winner, they’re likely going to support the candidate with the strongest national support. We’ll get a first glimpse at Clark’s Q3 fundraising totals in a couple of weeks. One early report said he had collected $750,000 in his first three days. Not a bad start.